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NLO8 - folding the nuts?? NLO8 - folding the nuts??
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03-29-2018 , 05:24 PM
#1
Galfondstyle
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centurion
Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 103
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37932878

CO: 13,393 (111.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): 9,237 (77 bb)
SB: 9,107 (75.9 bb)
BB: 3,770 (31.4 bb)
MP: 2,985 (24.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T 3 Q A
2 folds, Hero raises to 310, SB calls 250, BB folds

Flop: (815) 9 J 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 562, SB raises to 8,782 and is all-in, Hero ?

no infos about opponent, first time ever against him.

Is this one of those spots where folding the nuts the right play is??
NLO8 - folding the nuts?? Quote
03-29-2018 , 08:22 PM
#2
RolldUpTrips
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,334
I would call. You have the nuts and a3 for a possible backup
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03-30-2018 , 01:21 AM
#3
Hero Value's Avatar
Hero Value
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galfondstyle
Is this one of those spots where folding the nuts the right play is??
No.

You have the nuts. Don't fold.

If you fold the nuts then you're going to be rather easy to play against.
NLO8 - folding the nuts?? Quote
03-30-2018 , 02:58 AM
#4
Fold&Forget
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journeyman
Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 341
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
740,460 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9 J 8
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
Ts 3s Qs Ah53.93% 346,860431,6089,01933,7445,616
**A 246.07% 289,813299,8339,019142,5845,616

There are a lot of weak players who would shove with just a FD ($7 tournament). With one low on the board real freerolling is not possible. It's up you to decide do you want to fold that early in the tourney despite being ~55% favorite or do you prefer to hope to realize you postflop advantage later.
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04-09-2018 , 03:25 PM
#5
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LUCIUS VARENUS
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You are 2-1 against winning if he has a flush draw and set, but that is very uncommon and it's far too easy for him to have a worse hand that he's gambling with, particularly combo draws and worse QT hands and sets. He may even have T7, especially if he has redraws.

Please don't fold!
NLO8 - folding the nuts?? Quote
04-10-2018 , 08:11 PM
#6
Galfondstyle
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS
You are 2-1 against winning if he has a flush draw and set, but that is very uncommon and it's far too easy for him to have a worse hand that he's gambling with, particularly combo draws and worse QT hands and sets. He may even have T7, especially if he has redraws.

Please don't fold!

I snapcalled. he had a bare flush draw with AT34.
NLO8 - folding the nuts?? Quote
04-10-2018 , 09:13 PM
#7
amok
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Nice thread though
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04-11-2018 , 07:28 PM
#8
Galfondstyle
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Nice thread though
Thx for your comments.
I told u already you can keep your trolls for you if you don't like my threads
NLO8 - folding the nuts?? Quote
04-17-2018 , 07:45 PM
#9
BHDonkey
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It's Omaha8...lots of places where you'll have to gamble, unless you're playing against truly awful players.

I don't like folding, but I don't like calling either.

Do what I do when faced with a toss up...flip a coin...at least that way you can sleep at night.
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04-21-2018 , 12:01 PM
#10
oxie
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I can see how this could be a fold for some. I'm never folding.
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04-23-2018 , 04:29 AM
#11
billygstar
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Only hand your in bad shape vs is 10q with FD. Slight dog vs 10qkx and 10q with 2 pair/set and its less likely that they would shove these hands. And more likely villain shoving bare 10q or even 107.

You have BD low which puts you in better shape than most bare 10q hands.

Snap call.
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04-23-2018 , 01:33 PM
#12
bhtong
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I am a NIT so, I would have folded. I am glad you called.
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04-23-2018 , 02:55 PM
#13
amok
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Yeah folding is OK. Find the biggest game you can find and go freeroll them omybikes and random russian donkeys.
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04-23-2018 , 08:34 PM
#14
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Spring Mustachio
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I don't fold this either of course, but I am curious where the line would be that you can start to consider folding this situation. Obviously if you bet 2 BBs in a WCOOP and someone shoves for 200 you could consider mucking, yes?
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04-24-2018 , 12:17 AM
#15
amok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spring Mustachio
I don't fold this either of course, but I am curious where the line would be that you can start to consider folding this situation. Obviously if you bet 2 BBs in a WCOOP and someone shoves for 200 you could consider mucking, yes?
But we are not betting 2BB, we are betting roughly 4,7bb. No reason to start altering that. We are roughly 76bb deep, and intuitively I'd say at 150bb folding becomes non-******ed. At what point it becomes good I do not know. 250bb?
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04-24-2018 , 04:48 AM
#16
billygstar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Yeah folding is OK. Find the biggest game you can find and go freeroll them omybikes and random russian donkeys.
The nutjob went broke trying to outplay everyone with 2227 and bragging about it on his 'blog'. Shame.

cliffs so far - OP called with the nut str8 OTF for a lot of bb's and lost and wonders if he should have waited for better spots
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