Preflop: Hero is CO with 2 K 3 A
2 folds, Hero raises to 10,680, BTN folds, SB raises to 74,389 and is all-in, BB raises to 266,370 and is all-in, Hero calls 230,172 and is all-in
Flop: (559,093) 6 Q T (3 players, 3 are all-in) Turn: (559,093) J (3 players, 3 are all-in) River: (559,093) 4 (3 players, 3 are all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: 559,093 pot
Final Board: 6 Q T J 4
BB showed A T A 3 and lost (-241,352 net)
Hero showed 2 K 3 A and won 446,009 (204,657 net)
SB showed K J 5 A and won 113,084 (38,195 net)
33 $ NLO8 Tourney with 8K Prizepool, 12 players left.
Payouts from 122 $ for the 12th to 1557 $ for the winner.
at this moment I don't remember if I was fifth or sixth in chipcount.
I post this hand because I really don'T know what the right play is in this spot.
I called the 4bet all in because I thaught in that moment, I have to try with AK23 to win a big pot a play for the win.
It I had put ihm on AA I would have fold my hand. I thought he had something like A2Bx.
How short must I be to justify a call there?
Another question: let's suppose the guy who 4bets is a maniac and my AK23 looks good against his range. Should I still fold because I'm too deep to avoid the risk to bust in a coin flip preflop?
It I had put ihm on AA I would have fold my hand. I thought he had something like A2Bx.
Why did you think he had something like that? Don't you think he plays all his AAxx-combos like this plus some other hands?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galfondstyle
How short must I be to justify a call there?
I'm going to suggest you figure it out yourself. You will learn in the process. Keywords: propokertools, range, equity, chipEV, ICM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galfondstyle
Another question: let's suppose the guy who 4bets is a maniac and my AK23 looks good against his range. Should I still fold because I'm too deep to avoid the risk to bust in a coin flip preflop?
Depends if the chipEV you gain outweighs the possibility of busting.
All-in says the pot odds. Folding is generally giving away equity. Only times to rethink are if he's got a pathetically low PFR % indicating strong likelihood of a good AA, or if you're in a really good spot to beat up on weak players otherwise and chip up with less risk.
All-in says the pot odds. Folding is generally giving away equity. Only times to rethink are if he's got a pathetically low PFR % indicating strong likelihood of a good AA, or if you're in a really good spot to beat up on weak players otherwise and chip up with less risk.
i don't know why you think sb is shoving 100% of his hands.....is that your opinion from experience?
i don't have enough MTT experience to know, but i wouldn't have thought so. But i would very much be interested to know if it is you opinion and not just that using a random hand for sb in the simulation was expedient.
if sb choses to fold his worst hands, (and he adhers to PPT 3handed ranking for his selection. ) then if he folds approx. his worst 25% of hands and shoves the remaining 75%, hero no longer ends up with more chips on average by calling all in rather then folding. (when hero's equity in the 3 way man pot is ~37.71)
OF course its a tournament, and one's chip expectation is hardly the correct determiner of a +EV action.
No sorry, I should have given him 15% or something, but his hand isn't as relevant next to the big sidepot they played. I'm not sure why you don't think 37.71% is profitable for a 3 way pot. You only need 34%... less with dead money out there.
Dayum that is close. Of course we still don't know for sure that he has AA without stats (though I realize it's highly likely), but I do admit I may have been wrong here and it might be a marginally unprofitable call. Good luck getting me to make it though
Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (60,000/120,000 blinds, 15,000 ante) No Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 7 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37931265
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A 4 K 2
J Thirteen folds, spanisfish91 raises to 260,400, Hero calls 260,400, 3 folds, Diamond8 raises to 3,881,868 and is all-in, spanisfish91 raises to 11,139,913 and is all-in, Hero calls 10,879,513
Flop: (26,326,694) T J 3 (3 players, 2 are all-in) Turn: (26,326,694) 5 (3 players, 2 are all-in) River: (26,326,694) 3 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: 26,326,694 pot
Final Board: T J 3 5 3
Diamond8 showed A 5 A 7 and won 11,810,604 (7,913,736 net)
spanisfish91 showed J 2 K A and won 14,516,090 (3,361,177 net)
Hero showed A 4 K 2 and lost (-11,154,913 net)
The BB shoving guy has been super tight at this stage.
MP2 has been playing over aggro in some spots(esp iso) and strikes me as very one dimensional.
So i'm basically flatting pre for bit of disguise and thinking hes likely to iso too wide. In my head at the time i'm thinking I'm fine if this happens and hes getting snapped. Got what I wished for.
As ngftw is so good at doing the maths part wondering if you can do similar for me here as although I am sure I should be calling here its obv a pretty big ICM consideration and results orientated if I folded I would have had a bigger CL and good chance to win(11k up top)
I'm weighting BB very heavily to aces here. MP4 just insta shoved but i'm sure hes not even thought how big BB shove is and how weighted he is towards aces.
So I think I have very good equity vs MP4 iso. and side pot is twice the number of BB chips. But i'm ****ed if I can do some meaningful maths on it but I just think its a call and it would take some good calcs to convince me otherwise.
anyone have opinion and more importantly the maths like ngFTW did?
Thanks
Last edited by billygstar; 02-12-2018 at 05:22 AM.
Reason: needless to say spanisdonk goes on to win
different in a number of ways from op's situation,
op was shorter-stacked than his hu opponent(bb) so when op get's scooped in the sidepot, op busts. BillyG is chipleader at the table, and therefore is deeper than his hu opponent, if he is scooped in the sidepot he doesn't bust, in fact his remaining stack would still be deeper than 2 opponents.
also somewhere in the discussion of the op, before i got involved, it was assumed that the op's hu opponent (the deep stack) had the AA and as a consequence OP would be at an equity disadvantage in the sidepot.
BillyG's read is that the shortstack in the 3way pot is the likely player with AA and as a consequence his HU opponent in the sidepot can't have AA and therefore likely doesn't have an equity advantage. In fact the read pretty much determines hero to have an equity advantage in the sidepot.
anyway, as requested, some basic math.
when hero calls the all-in(s):
hero calls
3,621,468 into a main pot(3way) of 11,810,604
and
7,258,045 into a sidepot(hu) of 14,516,090
and leaves 1,534,779 behind as he has the bigger of the 3 stacks.(in fact hero is chip leader at hands' start)
3621468/11810604 =~30.66
with 30.67% equity or greater in the main pot hero is +chipEV (that is hero will have more chips on avg calling than if he were to fold) if the sidepot gets split 50/50 for a net chipEV of 0. However given the read that gives AA to the mainpot shortstack hero can expect to be +chipEV in the sidepot* and therefore can be a net loser in the mainpot(have an equity somewhat less than 30.67% and likely still be +chipEV calling the all-in(s).
*with an equity advantage(any equity >50%) in the hu sidepot hero is +chipEV in the sidepot,
we can determine that 13,649,259 is your 'expected' stack (on average, and of course is never your actual 'resultant' stack) when you call.
whereas 12,414,292 is your stack when you fold.
in my opinion its the 'resultant' chipstacks and their respective frequencies that are the data that help inform a tournament (ICM) decision and not chipEV.
Spoiler:
when i have more time later, i'll run a 3way with sidepot sim to determine the 22 possible outcomes and their frequencies from which can be determine the resultant chipstacks
outcome
frequency
chipstack
Hero scoops both main and side pots
Hero splits (75%) main pot, scoops side pot
Hero splits (75%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero splits (67%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero splits (50%) main pot, scoops side pot
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
Hero splits (33%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
Hero splits (25%)main pot, scoops side pot
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot
Hero is scooped main pot, scoops side pot
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (75%) side pot
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (50%) side pot
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (25%) side pot
Hero is scooped both main and side pots
with this data you can better gauge your risk/reward than by just determining that calling is +chipEV.
just in case its of interest
if the sidepot opponent however were to be the one to have AA and the tight mainpot shortstack were to have a very solid doublesuited A2,
as simulated, hero has 29.5% in the mainpot and 45.3% in the sidepot.
given hero is at an equity disadvantage to AA in the sidepot and will be losing chips in the sidepot, hero would have to be +chipEV in the mainpot to compensate for those lost chips. however with equity less than 30.67%(as was determined above) we know hero would also be losing chips in the mainpot. Hero's call would result in him on average having less chips than if he were to fold.
when hero folds and Mp3 shoves w/ top 12% and BB shoved w/ AA
12,414,292 is Hero's folded stack.
hero payjumps only when 12% scoops AA which is 25.3%,
AA doublesup+ 42.1%
when hero calls w/ A24Kds vs. Mp3 w/ top 12% and BB(smallstack) w/ AA(smallstack)
outcome
frequency
chipstack
Hero scoops both main and side pots
16.76%
27,861,473
16.76% doublepayjump
Hero splits (75%) main pot, scoops side pot
0.85%
24,908,822
0.85% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (50%) main pot, scoops side pot
3.17%
21,956,171
3.17% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (75%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
4.37%
21,279,799.5
4.37% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (67%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0.62%
20,299,519.5
Hero splits (25%)main pot, scoops side pot
0.47%
19,003,520
0.47% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
1.7%
18,327,148.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0.01%
17,346,868.5
Hero is scooped main pot, scoops side pot
12.2%
16,050,869
12.2% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
4.08%
15,374,497.5
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
14.09%
14,698,126
8.75% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0.51%
14,394,217.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
0.04%
13,717,846
Hero splits (33%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
0.3%
12,725,755
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0.3%
12,421,846.5
(59.46%)
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
2.92%
11,745,475
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
0.15%
10,765,195
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (50%) side pot
5.59%
8,792,824
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot
6.95%
8,086,452.5
3.33% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot
0.96%
7,136,172.5
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (25%) side pot
0.94%
5,163,801.5
Hero is scooped both main and side pots
23.1%
1,534,779
11.92% payjump BB busts
(40.62%)
when hero calls vs. the actual hands (hero's decision if his opponents flipped over their cards)
outcome
frequency
chipstack
Hero scoops both main and side pots
9.26%
27,861,473
9.26% doublepayjump
Hero splits (75%) main pot, scoops side pot
0%
Hero splits (50%) main pot, scoops side pot
0.06%
21,956,171
.06% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (75%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
9.0%
21,279,799.5
9% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (67%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0.24%
20,299,519.5
Hero splits (25%)main pot, scoops side pot
0%
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
6.65%
18,327,148.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0%
Hero is scooped main pot, scoops side pot
2.3%
16,050,869
2.3% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
8.7%
15,374,497.5
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
8.34%
14,698,126
7.91% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot
0.27%
14,394,217.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
0%
Hero splits (33%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
0.23%
12,725,755
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (75%) side pot
1.85%
12,421,846.5
(46.9%)
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
9.36%
11,745,475
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot
0%
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (50%) side pot
14.33%
8,792,824
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot
7.16%
8,086,452.5
1.85% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot
0.1%
7,136,172.5
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (25%) side pot
1.21%
5,163,801.5
Hero is scooped both main and side pots
20.93%
1,534,779
11.12% payjump BB busts
(53.09%)
when Hero folds,
MP3 scoops 21.5% and hero payjumps
BB scoops 40.7%
*** i do know its just too much info.***
vs. the top 12% the scoop to scooped ratio is so much better it clearly looks like it would be an ICM call.
vs. actual hands you scoop much less frequently, but ICM i would think gives a fair amount of value to your stack when you are scooped that its probably an ICM call vs. actual hands even though the scoop to scooped ratio is much less favorable.
Thanks for taking the time for this. Very impressive My brain is going to take a bit of time to fully digest ha.
Of course, as you pointed out a huge part of the decision is he read that the BB shorter stack is the more likely with aces. I feel along with that the fact that MP2 is opening at a high frequency and also playing over aggro in iso spots i'm happy that this is the correct simulation. He could imo of been iso'ing with hands that I dominate more(so guess 12% seems reasonable).
I think if MP3 wasn't an aggro player id have folded knowing that i'll not have enough edge in the sidepot with MP3.
Going to think about the maths you above a bit more but yeah thanks for this.