33 $ NLO8 Tourney with 8K Prizepool, 12 players left.
Payouts from 122 $ for the 12th to 1557 $ for the winner.
at this moment I don't remember if I was fifth or sixth in chipcount.

I post this hand because I really don'T know what the right play is in this spot.
I called the 4bet all in because I thaught in that moment, I have to try with AK23 to win a big pot a play for the win.

What is the right play?

I'd be glad to read your opinions

I would fold if you think he has AA** say +75% of the time.

You definitely don't NEED to gamble with +60bb stack to have a shot of winning a tournament, so try to get such thoughts out of your system.

It I had put ihm on AA I would have fold my hand. I thought he had something like A2Bx.

How short must I be to justify a call there?

Another question: let's suppose the guy who 4bets is a maniac and my AK23 looks good against his range. Should I still fold because I'm too deep to avoid the risk to bust in a coin flip preflop?

Why did you think he had something like that? Don't you think he plays all his AAxx-combos like this plus some other hands?

I'm going to suggest you figure it out yourself. You will learn in the process. Keywords: propokertools, range, equity, chipEV, ICM.

Depends if the chipEV you gain outweighs the possibility of busting.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
aa*	37.80%	144,629	270,687	7,995	19,061	41,807
ah3hkc2s	38.31%	114,787	134,841	8,874	234,246	48,397
****	23.89%	82,468	183,793	4,678	17,244	8,510

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
aa**	56.63%	222,105	418,701	7,757	22,405	42,760
ah3hkc2s	43.37%	149,578	173,542	7,757	244,806	42,760

All-in says the pot odds. Folding is generally giving away equity. Only times to rethink are if he's got a pathetically low PFR % indicating strong likelihood of a good AA, or if you're in a really good spot to beat up on weak players otherwise and chip up with less risk.

i don't know why you think sb is shoving 100% of his hands.....is that your opinion from experience?
i don't have enough MTT experience to know, but i wouldn't have thought so. But i would very much be interested to know if it is you opinion and not just that using a random hand for sb in the simulation was expedient.

if sb choses to fold his worst hands, (and he adhers to PPT 3handed ranking for his selection. ) then if he folds approx. his worst 25% of hands and shoves the remaining 75%, hero no longer ends up with more chips on average by calling all in rather then folding. (when hero's equity in the 3 way man pot is ~37.71)

OF course its a tournament, and one's chip expectation is hardly the correct determiner of a +EV action.

No sorry, I should have given him 15% or something, but his hand isn't as relevant next to the big sidepot they played. I'm not sure why you don't think 37.71% is profitable for a 3 way pot. You only need 34%... less with dead money out there.

hero calls 63709 into main pot and 166463 into sidepot when he calls allin

500 + 10680 +63709 +166463 =241352 checks as hero's starting stack

the main pot will be 226,167 (1500 + 74889*3)
the side pot will be 332,926 (166463 *2)

226167 +332926 =559093 checks with hh (1500 +74889 +241352*2)


with 43.37% equity vs AA in the side pot and contributing 166463 to the pot
332926 *.4337 -166463 = -22,073

hero loses 22,073 chips in the side pot,
in order to be net positive chips he needs to gain atleast 22073 chips in the main pot.

226167 *X -63709 =22073
where X is the equity necessary for hero to gain exactly 22073 chips in the main pot when he contributes 63709

X= ~37.93

226167 *.3793 -63709 =22076

I hope you follow.

**not sure exactly why i posted 37.71%, carelessness somewhere along the way i'd guess. likely in reading my very quickly scribbled math.

Dayum that is close. Of course we still don't know for sure that he has AA without stats (though I realize it's highly likely), but I do admit I may have been wrong here and it might be a marginally unprofitable call. Good luck getting me to make it though

Had a hand kinda similar in wcoop low event.

The BB shoving guy has been super tight at this stage.
MP2 has been playing over aggro in some spots(esp iso) and strikes me as very one dimensional.

So i'm basically flatting pre for bit of disguise and thinking hes likely to iso too wide. In my head at the time i'm thinking I'm fine if this happens and hes getting snapped. Got what I wished for.

As ngftw is so good at doing the maths part wondering if you can do similar for me here as although I am sure I should be calling here its obv a pretty big ICM consideration and results orientated if I folded I would have had a bigger CL and good chance to win(11k up top)

I'm weighting BB very heavily to aces here. MP4 just insta shoved but i'm sure hes not even thought how big BB shove is and how weighted he is towards aces.
So I think I have very good equity vs MP4 iso. and side pot is twice the number of BB chips. But i'm ****ed if I can do some meaningful maths on it but I just think its a call and it would take some good calcs to convince me otherwise.

anyone have opinion and more importantly the maths like ngFTW did?

Thanks

different in a number of ways from op's situation,

op was shorter-stacked than his hu opponent(bb) so when op get's scooped in the sidepot, op busts. BillyG is chipleader at the table, and therefore is deeper than his hu opponent, if he is scooped in the sidepot he doesn't bust, in fact his remaining stack would still be deeper than 2 opponents.

also somewhere in the discussion of the op, before i got involved, it was assumed that the op's hu opponent (the deep stack) had the AA and as a consequence OP would be at an equity disadvantage in the sidepot.
BillyG's read is that the shortstack in the 3way pot is the likely player with AA and as a consequence his HU opponent in the sidepot can't have AA and therefore likely doesn't have an equity advantage. In fact the read pretty much determines hero to have an equity advantage in the sidepot.


anyway, as requested, some basic math.

when hero calls the all-in(s):

hero calls
3,621,468 into a main pot(3way) of 11,810,604
and
7,258,045 into a sidepot(hu) of 14,516,090

and leaves 1,534,779 behind as he has the bigger of the 3 stacks.(in fact hero is chip leader at hands' start)


3621468/11810604 =~30.66
with 30.67% equity or greater in the main pot hero is +chipEV (that is hero will have more chips on avg calling than if he were to fold) if the sidepot gets split 50/50 for a net chipEV of 0. However given the read that gives AA to the mainpot shortstack hero can expect to be +chipEV in the sidepot* and therefore can be a net loser in the mainpot(have an equity somewhat less than 30.67% and likely still be +chipEV calling the all-in(s).


*with an equity advantage(any equity >50%) in the hu sidepot hero is +chipEV in the sidepot,

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ad2dks4s	34.47%	100,370	151,759	18,935	114,829	137,677
12%	25.31%	72,100	136,050	17,675	33,952	122,202
aa	40.22%	158,765	290,531	8,585	13,821	42,301

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: aa

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ad2dks4s	55.41%	198,984	277,120	58,702	140,154	120,425
12%	44.59%	141,678	264,178	58,702	42,725	120,425

as these very simple range examples demonstrate you have equity such that you are +chipEV in both pots.

using these equities

11810604 *.3447 + 14516090 *.5541 +1534779 = 13,649,259

we can determine that 13,649,259 is your 'expected' stack (on average, and of course is never your actual 'resultant' stack) when you call.

whereas 12,414,292 is your stack when you fold.


in my opinion its the 'resultant' chipstacks and their respective frequencies that are the data that help inform a tournament (ICM) decision and not chipEV.




just in case its of interest
if the sidepot opponent however were to be the one to have AA and the tight mainpot shortstack were to have a very solid doublesuited A2,
as simulated, hero has 29.5% in the mainpot and 45.3% in the sidepot.
given hero is at an equity disadvantage to AA in the sidepot and will be losing chips in the sidepot, hero would have to be +chipEV in the mainpot to compensate for those lost chips. however with equity less than 30.67%(as was determined above) we know hero would also be losing chips in the mainpot. Hero's call would result in him on average having less chips than if he were to fold.

11810604 *.295 + 14516090 *.453 +1534779 = 11,594,696

when hero folds and Mp3 shoves w/ top 12% and BB shoved w/ AA

12,414,292 is Hero's folded stack.

hero payjumps only when 12% scoops AA which is 25.3%,
AA doublesup+ 42.1%



when hero calls w/ A24Kds vs. Mp3 w/ top 12% and BB(smallstack) w/ AA(smallstack)

outcome	frequency	chipstack
Hero scoops both main and side pots	16.76%	27,861,473	16.76% doublepayjump
Hero splits (75%) main pot, scoops side pot	0.85%	24,908,822	0.85% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (50%) main pot, scoops side pot	3.17%	21,956,171	3.17% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (75%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	4.37%	21,279,799.5	4.37% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (67%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0.62%	20,299,519.5
Hero splits (25%)main pot, scoops side pot	0.47%	19,003,520	0.47% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	1.7%	18,327,148.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0.01%	17,346,868.5
Hero is scooped main pot, scoops side pot	12.2%	16,050,869	12.2% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	4.08%	15,374,497.5
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	14.09%	14,698,126	8.75% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0.51%	14,394,217.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	0.04%	13,717,846
Hero splits (33%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	0.3%	12,725,755
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0.3%	12,421,846.5
	(59.46%)
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	2.92%	11,745,475
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	0.15%	10,765,195
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (50%) side pot	5.59%	8,792,824
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot	6.95%	8,086,452.5	3.33% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot	0.96%	7,136,172.5
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (25%) side pot	0.94%	5,163,801.5
Hero is scooped both main and side pots	23.1%	1,534,779	11.92% payjump BB busts
	(40.62%)

when hero calls vs. the actual hands (hero's decision if his opponents flipped over their cards)

outcome	frequency	chipstack
Hero scoops both main and side pots	9.26%	27,861,473	9.26% doublepayjump
Hero splits (75%) main pot, scoops side pot	0%
Hero splits (50%) main pot, scoops side pot	0.06%	21,956,171	.06% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (75%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	9.0%	21,279,799.5	9% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (67%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0.24%	20,299,519.5
Hero splits (25%)main pot, scoops side pot	0%
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	6.65%	18,327,148.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0%
Hero is scooped main pot, scoops side pot	2.3%	16,050,869	2.3% payjump MP3 busts
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	8.7%	15,374,497.5
Hero splits (50%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	8.34%	14,698,126	7.91% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (75%) side pot	0.27%	14,394,217.5
Hero splits (42%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	0%
Hero splits (33%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	0.23%	12,725,755
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (75%) side pot	1.85%	12,421,846.5
	(46.9%)
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	9.36%	11,745,475
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (50%) side pot	0%
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (50%) side pot	14.33%	8,792,824
Hero splits (25%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot	7.16%	8,086,452.5	1.85% payjump BB busts
Hero splits (17%) main pot, splits (25%) side pot	0.1%	7,136,172.5
Hero is scooped main pot, splits (25%) side pot	1.21%	5,163,801.5
Hero is scooped both main and side pots	20.93%	1,534,779	11.12% payjump BB busts
	(53.09%)

when Hero folds,
MP3 scoops 21.5% and hero payjumps
BB scoops 40.7%


*** i do know its just too much info.***

vs. the top 12% the scoop to scooped ratio is so much better it clearly looks like it would be an ICM call.

vs. actual hands you scoop much less frequently, but ICM i would think gives a fair amount of value to your stack when you are scooped that its probably an ICM call vs. actual hands even though the scoop to scooped ratio is much less favorable.

obviously an unlucky board.

Hey FTW,

Thanks for taking the time for this. Very impressive My brain is going to take a bit of time to fully digest ha.

Of course, as you pointed out a huge part of the decision is he read that the BB shorter stack is the more likely with aces. I feel along with that the fact that MP2 is opening at a high frequency and also playing over aggro in iso spots i'm happy that this is the correct simulation. He could imo of been iso'ing with hands that I dominate more(so guess 12% seems reasonable).

I think if MP3 wasn't an aggro player id have folded knowing that i'll not have enough edge in the sidepot with MP3.

Going to think about the maths you above a bit more but yeah thanks for this.