Quote:
Originally Posted by atothek
Hello, all!
I've recently started playing this wonderful game and I'm loving it!
I have a question about folding the nut low/nut low draw. Say I'm at a short handed table and in the BB with A2xx with no suits. 3-4 people limp, the SB completes and the flop comes 67Q with two suits, where my only chance to even win half of the pot is to make a low (I have no backdoor draws whatsoever). So far i have automatically just check/folded on those kind of flops even if it was only a min bet on the flop.
I have also folded the bare nut low on monotone flops such as: 675,783 etc.
But i'm guessing it would be a mistake to fold A2xx(no backdoor draws) on a flop of BWW (Broadway, wheel, wheel; where wheel is not a 2)
P.S.
This is at the micros, online
• The main danger when you flop a bare nut low is getting fractionated (mostly quartered, but occasionally sixthed, and more rarely eighthed).
• A secondary danger is getting counterfeited on the turn or river.
• If you're at a full table (9 or 10 players) when you're dealt A299,
and when you end up with the nut low at the showdown another player or two will also have been dealt a hand with at least one ace and at least one deuce (A2**) about two times out of five.
• If you're playing six max (and have five opponents), and when you're dealt a bare nut low (say, for example, A299),
and when you end up with the nut low at the showdown another player or two will also have been dealt a hand with at least one ace and at least one deuce (A2**) about one time out of four.
In either case (full table or six max) when you're dealt a bare nut low, without an extra ace or deuce, you should expect to get counterfeited (by another ace or deuce appearing on the turn or river) about 25% of the time. Here's the math:
P=1-C(39,2)/C(45,2)
P=1-39*38/45/44
P=0.2515
Thus when you're dealt a hand like A
,2
,9
,9
at a full table, and the flop is 6
,7
,8
, you should expect to win half the pot about .6*.75=0.45 or 45% of the time, and a quarter or sixth of the pot about .4*.75=0.30 or 30% of the time. For the other 25% of the time, you might still win low with a live ace or deuce.
With five opponents at six max, those percentages would be:
.75*.75=0.5625 or about 56% for half the pot and
.25*.75=0.1875 or about 19% for a quarter or sixth of the pot. For the other 25% of the time, you might still win low with a live ace or deuce.
Usually [edit](in a fixed-limit game)[/edit]there will be more than enough money in the pot to make up for the times you'll get fractionated or counterfeited. Thus, in general, I think it's a mistake to fold a flopped nut low.
But a bare flopped nut low
draw may be a different story. The difference is you won't always make a low when you flop a low draw. With A,2,9,9 after a flop of K,7,8, for example, you need to see either a 3, 4, 5, or 6 as at least one of the cards on the turn or river, without the other card being an ace or deuce. You have 16 outs, 6 anti-outs, and 23 bricks.
16*15/2+16*23=488 ways (out of 990) to have favorable turn and river cards. 488/990=0.49.
Instead of ending up with the nut low 75% of the time (which is your probability of ending up with the nut low if you flop the
made nut low without counterfeit protection), you end up with the nut low slightly less than half of the time when you flop a
draw to the nut low.
You have to decide, on the basi
Last edited by Buzz; 05-02-2013 at 11:52 PM.