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Originally Posted by WhiteWolf
Each out to a scoop with one card to come is worth just under 2% in equity, close enough for the "Rule-of-2" to be a good enough estimate.
There are differences between Omaha or Omaha-8 and Texas hold 'em. For one thing, your Texas hold 'em opponent is less likely to be holding one or more of your outs. For another, if you're drawing to a flush, for example, you may not want to count as outs cards that make your flush but also pair the board. In my humble opinion, these differences make the "Rule-of-2" less accurate for Omaha or Omaha-8 than for Texas hold 'em.
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What is the equivalent value for an out to half the pot?
Excellent question. Alas, the answer is a bit complex, probably too complex for the newb's thread. But since you've asked it here, I'll try to answer it here.
Your question is easier to answer for fixed-limit than pot-limit or no-limit, but in any case, if you're playing in a full game, winning with high (but not a straight) is probably worth more than winning with low. That's because of the quartering effect. It's called "quartering" but it should be called "fractionating" since sometimes you'll get sixthed for low and more rarely you'll get eighthed for low.
When you're dealt a hand containing one ace and one deuce, one or more of your opponents in a full nine handed game will also have been dealt a hand containing at least one ace and at least one deuce about two times out of five. In other words, you figure to get fractionated, assuming your opponents have not folded hands that would tie you for low, roughly two times in five (about 34.7% by only one opponent, about 4.2% by two opponents, and about one time in a thousand by three opponents).
(A good approximation for getting fractionated in a full game is 2/5. Two times in five when you make low using an ace and a deuce from your hand, another opponent in a full game (nine handed) will also have been dealt a hand containing an ace plus a deuce).
In a fixed-limit game, when there are already 8 big bets in the pot, starting on the third betting round, and estimating you and one opponent will each put in one more bet on both the third and fourth betting rounds,
• when you scoop, you'll win 10 big bets.
• when you win for high-only, you'll win 4 big bets.
• when you win for low-only, because you'll get fractionated two times in five, you'll average 4*3/5+1*2/5=14/5 or 2.8 big bets.
So if a scoop out wins 100% of the pot, an out for high-only when there probably will be a split with low is worth ~40% and an out for low-only is worth ~28%. (I emboldened that sentence because it's the short cut answer to your question).
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When facing a bet, how does the fact that when you call and hit you only get 1/2 your call back affect the calling decision?
I don't think that way.
I think of the third and fourth betting rounds if I make my draw (and just the third betting round if I miss).
"call and hit" implies both third and fourth betting rounds.
And then I think of getting 100% of my own bet back if there's an even split, but getting nothing additional from my opponent, and thus simply getting half of what was in the pot after the second betting round. If I'm reasonably sure my opponent is not going to fold, I'm basically gambling to win half of what was in the pot after the second betting round, and my stake, assuming I will fold if I miss my draw on the river, is what it will cost on the third betting round.
This is obviously complicated when there is more that one opponent. And the amounts are going to be not exactly the same, depending on how much is already in the pot after the second betting round, and how much it will cost on the third betting round.
What happens frequently is you'll have some outs for scoop and some outs for either high or low. I count the outs for low as worth about three tenths and outs for high-only as about four tenths of the value of a scoop out. And I don't count some cards one way or another (as outs, partial outs, or bricks).
To further complicate matters, sometimes I might be drawing with several different possibilities, including a non-nut (perhaps second nut) flush draw and a straight draw. I wrote an article about that recently, but it's not really newb's thread material.
Buzz
Last edited by Buzz; 01-09-2011 at 07:47 PM.