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multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8)
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09-28-2017 , 01:47 PM
#1
oh eight
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newbie
Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 30
stack sizes are approximate:

SB - 1100
BB - 300
UTG+1 - 800
UTG+2 - 500
LJ - 200
BTN - 1300

5/10 PLO8 game. 4 limps and I've AdTd9sQs in the SB so I complete. BB checks. 6 ways to a flop of AsKd7d. checks to LJ who then bets 10. we all call. river is the 6s. checks to UTG+1 who then bets pot. LJ and BTN call. I thought about it for a while but eventually folded solely because of the low already being out. but as I look back I'm not sure.

I had the nut diamond draw, 2nd nut spade draw, and any 8 or jack gives me the nut straight. given my draws can I justify going after high here in a 4 way pot to the river?
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-28-2017 , 02:45 PM
#2
greybeard33
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grinder
Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 523
May want to clarify that you meant turn is the 6s. Assuming the low is out there i think implied odds alone would work for me with as many as 24 outs to 1/2 the pot. Easy to check and fold/call/raise river knowing that low(s) will do the betting for you.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-28-2017 , 02:53 PM
#3
ngFTW
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if you are conservative and believe someone has a low they aren't folding and you have to improve to a straight or better to have a winning high hand and only count the diamond flush as a winning flush
then you require 2 players to pay pot to see showdown. either both splitting the low, or 1 with a winning low and one with a losing low or a losing high.
for calling the turn pot bet to be +ev.

if you aren't as conservative then its much easier for the call to be +ev. and its possible its +ev without any additional $ going in on the river.
Spoiler:

the conservative approach math:

call pot (p)
cost to see river =p, pot =5p

with 8 non board pairing diamonds for a winning flush (for half pot)
and 4 non-flushing js,8s, for a winning straight (lets say 2 for half pot and 2 for quarter pot)

10/44 = 22.75%
2/44 = 4.5%

32/44 = 72.75%

so
if when you make either your flush or straight you bet pot(5p) --and you get 2 callers making the final pot 20p --
then
22.75% you win half the pot (10p) at a cost of 6p for a profit of +4p
4.5% you win a quarter of the pot (5p) at a cost of 6p for a loss of -1p
72.75% you fold the river (or showdown for free and lose) for -1p

ev= .2275 *4p +.77.25 *-1p = +.1375p (13.75% of the turn pot bet)

so if p =$120 then calling is $16.50 better than folding

of course if you get the 3rd caller, or a raiser w/caller or callers your ev increases.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-28-2017 , 07:09 PM
#4
oh eight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greybeard33
May want to clarify that you meant turn is the 6s. Assuming the low is out there i think implied odds alone would work for me with as many as 24 outs to 1/2 the pot. Easy to check and fold/call/raise river knowing that low(s) will do the betting for you.
oh yes sorry turn was the 6s
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-28-2017 , 07:17 PM
#5
oh eight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ngFTW
if you are conservative and believe someone has a low they aren't folding and you have to improve to a straight or better to have a winning high hand and only count the diamond flush as a winning flush
then you require 2 players to pay pot to see showdown. either both splitting the low, or 1 with a winning low and one with a losing low or a losing high.
for calling the turn pot bet to be +ev.

if you aren't as conservative then its much easier for the call to be +ev. and its possible its +ev without any additional $ going in on the river.
Spoiler:

the conservative approach math:

call pot (p)
cost to see river =p, pot =5p

with 8 non board pairing diamonds for a winning flush (for half pot)
and 4 non-flushing js,8s, for a winning straight (lets say 2 for half pot and 2 for quarter pot)

10/44 = 22.75%
2/44 = 4.5%

32/44 = 72.75%

so
if when you make either your flush or straight you bet pot(5p) --and you get 2 callers making the final pot 20p --
then
22.75% you win half the pot (10p) at a cost of 6p for a profit of +4p
4.5% you win a quarter of the pot (5p) at a cost of 6p for a loss of -1p
72.75% you fold the river (or showdown for free and lose) for -1p

ev= .2275 *4p +.77.25 *-1p = +.1375p (13.75% of the turn pot bet)

so if p =$120 then calling is $16.50 better than folding

of course if you get the 3rd caller, or a raiser w/caller or callers your ev increases.
thanks for this. I need to be thinking like this a lot more.

as it turned out I would've won half making the nut flush on the river. since the stacks were uneven the side pot was meaningless as the LJ had very little left which makes me wonder why he didn't just shove on the turn if he was going all the way. UTG+1 had 236T with 2 diamonds while LJ had A57K no flush draw. BTN folded on the river.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-28-2017 , 10:23 PM
#6
monikrazy's Avatar
monikrazy
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Carpal \'Tunnel
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This is an implied odds question. You are calling 120 to win half of 600. You should always discount a few outs so give yourself something like 10 outs.

So you are calling with something like 12.5% equity (assumes no scoops by hero) when you need 20% before implied odds on river to break even. If players are likely to have the same nut lo or overplay nonnut hands on the river calling can be ok.

So up to you how to proceed,nothing wrong with folding.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:01 PM
#7
ngFTW
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grinder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oh eight
.......... since the stacks were uneven the side pot...........
yes, you did post the stacks and I did ignore them in my response and presented a more generalized example where everyone had at least 75bb stacks without clearly specifying this.
i'm glad you recognized that the uneven stacks/ short stacks make a difference.
i really don't like 20 big blind stacks in pot limit.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-29-2017 , 04:14 PM
#8
ngFTW
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grinder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
This is an implied odds question. You are calling 120 to win half of 600. You should always discount a few outs so give yourself something like 10 outs.

So you are calling with something like 12.5% equity (assumes no scoops by hero) when you need 20% before implied odds on river to break even. If players are likely to have the same nut lo or overplay nonnut hands on the river calling can be ok.

So up to you how to proceed,nothing wrong with folding.
i don't wish to criticize, since i can just be misunderstanding you, but its pretty unlikely that Hero has 12.5% avg pot equity. its theoretically possible, but its in fact pretty difficult for Hero to have < 14.6% equity. its pretty easy for Hero to have 27%-28% equity.


here is a sim with ranges with a concerted effort to kill hero's outs, however with some balance,
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AK76
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
AdTd9sQs26.87% 0317,5519,83200
ak,a7,a6,k7,76,77,66,(kqt,qjt,qt9,kt9,T98,458): ( dd,ss)15.65% 1,987171,7459,1396,70210,202
23,2435.46% 15,80131,6433,695310,816163,161
(2[3-5],A2[4-7],A3[4-7]) ss,dd),(kk,ak,kqjt,kqt9):kss22.02% 7,78365,2635,033117,305159,005
Last edited by ngFTW; 09-29-2017 at 04:20 PM.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
09-29-2017 , 06:13 PM
#9
monikrazy's Avatar
monikrazy
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Edit: I missed the 2nd flush draw being out there, I also missed some gutshot straight outs

Seems like a standardish call even with reverse implied odd when someone hits a better spade flush
Last edited by monikrazy; 09-29-2017 at 06:33 PM.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
10-03-2017 , 01:00 PM
#10
WINNINGSTEK
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adept
Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 887
Both of your flush draws are likely to be clean and with two more jacks for nut str8, I think folding here is a mistake.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
10-30-2017 , 04:46 AM
#11
Galfondstyle
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centurion
Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 103
I like Monikrazy's opinion.
It depends for sure also on how loose/bad the opponents are.
I would tend to call here but against 3 players folding is also OK because of the reverse implied odds if you hit 2nd nut flush draw and risk to get scooped.
You can be sure half pot is yours only by hitting nut flush and maybe nut straight (if no one else has one, with a minimum risk of getting quartered).
Calling was better and results oriented you can be disappointed but that fold was OK even if it wasn't the best play.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
10-30-2017 , 08:23 AM
#12
LUCIUS VARENUS's Avatar
LUCIUS VARENUS
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Soldier of Minbet
Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461
Don't necessarily assume they are always calling the river with nut low.

So if you hit your hand, there is a chance you can make them fold nut low, because they fear being quartered.

Obv a point particular to NL/PL, not limit.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
11-03-2017 , 09:47 AM
#13
TS2
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old hand
Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,505
why are we talking about ultrasonic rodent repellants?

I would have folded pre.. prob called turn.
multiple high draws in a multiway pot with a low out on the turn (/ PLO8) Quote
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