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Old 07-15-2018, 06:26 PM   #1
Caterina
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[micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck

Late stages, 18/484 left, next payjump is at 17 left.
The BTTN is second in chips and very active. He showed down plenty of less than stellar hands, usually while scooping a big pot out of nowhere.
The SB seems to have trouble folding every know and then.
I have been overly tight in the SB and BB and kinda fit foldy. I haven't had good hands for quite a while and am accumulating chips at a very slow rate (but my stack was growing)

    Poker Stars, $1.96 Buy-in (1,200/2,400 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37935047

    BTN: 179,831 (74.9 bb)
    SB: 83,920 (35 bb)
    Hero (BB): 73,556 (30.6 bb)
    UTG: 125,315 (52.2 bb)
    MP: 187,048 (77.9 bb)
    CO: 112,374 (46.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 2 A 3
    3 folds, BTN raises to 5,280, SB calls 4,080, Hero calls 2,880
    Seems ok to me.
    Flop: (17,640) 8 4 T (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 7,056, SB calls 7,056, Hero calls 7,056
    I actually consider folding the flop here. I have almost no high potential, but decide that there are enough good turns, to call once.

    Turn: (38,808) K (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 19,344, SB calls 19,344, Hero folds
    Still no real high potential, but I do have plenty of counterfit protection. However, I thought, i'm actually drawing to 25% a lot and decide to fold. Is this wrong?

    River: (77,496) A (2 players)
    SB bets 51,940 and is all-in, BTN calls 51,940

    Spoiler:



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    Old 07-15-2018, 11:03 PM   #2
    amok
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    Re: [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck

    wp
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    Old 07-16-2018, 12:48 AM   #3
    ngFTW
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    Re: [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck

    looking at the turn decision.

    using 57% for how often hero bricks the river, so 43% as how often hero rivers a low(nutlow), and 40% for hero's avg pot equity when he rivers a low and show's down,

    Hero must go to showdown 3 ways at least 87.6% of the time for calling the turn to be +EV.

    turn fold seems reasonable. and my opinion is flop call seems reasonable as well

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    Last edited by ngFTW; 07-16-2018 at 12:54 AM.
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    Old 07-16-2018, 04:46 AM   #4
    Caterina
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    Re: [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck

    Thanks you two. In hindsight, I'm wondering, if I get distracted by the result too much. Especially after seeing the 359J.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ngFTW View Post
    looking at the turn decision.

    Hero must go to showdown 3 ways at least 87.6% of the time for calling the turn to be +EV.
    Thanks for the math. I'm still wrapping my head around it.

    Some thoughts though:
    * If the river brings a low on an A or a 2, the pot is more likely to be headsup, because counterfitted lows are more likely to fold.
    * I think, the same is true, if the SB leads the river big. I will be forced to call and the BTTN seeing a bet and a call in front of him, is often going to fold and if he doesn't then i'm quartered a lot.
    * I wonder, if there is a case, where I can win the whole thing on the river. (Small clubs come to mind).

    All in all, I'd assume, the most likely cases are:
    - seeing a showdown headsup
    - seeing a showdown 3way but getting quartered
    - folding a brick.
    While seeing a showdown 3way and getting half or making two people fold the river are pretty unlikely.

    So if I understand your math correctly, then it is a clear fold, if only because going to showdown 3way is not that likely.
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