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[micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck

07-15-2018 , 06:26 PM
Late stages, 18/484 left, next payjump is at 17 left.
The BTTN is second in chips and very active. He showed down plenty of less than stellar hands, usually while scooping a big pot out of nowhere.
The SB seems to have trouble folding every know and then.
I have been overly tight in the SB and BB and kinda fit foldy. I haven't had good hands for quite a while and am accumulating chips at a very slow rate (but my stack was growing)

    Poker Stars, $1.96 Buy-in (1,200/2,400 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37935047

    BTN: 179,831 (74.9 bb)
    SB: 83,920 (35 bb)
    Hero (BB): 73,556 (30.6 bb)
    UTG: 125,315 (52.2 bb)
    MP: 187,048 (77.9 bb)
    CO: 112,374 (46.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 2 A 3
    3 folds, BTN raises to 5,280, SB calls 4,080, Hero calls 2,880
    Seems ok to me.
    Flop: (17,640) 8 4 T (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 7,056, SB calls 7,056, Hero calls 7,056
    I actually consider folding the flop here. I have almost no high potential, but decide that there are enough good turns, to call once.

    Turn: (38,808) K (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 19,344, SB calls 19,344, Hero folds
    Still no real high potential, but I do have plenty of counterfit protection. However, I thought, i'm actually drawing to 25% a lot and decide to fold. Is this wrong?

    River: (77,496) A (2 players)
    SB bets 51,940 and is all-in, BTN calls 51,940

    Spoiler:
    Results: 181,376 pot
    Final Board: 8 4 T K A
    BTN showed 9 3 J 5 and won 90,688 (6,768 net)
    SB showed A A Q Q and won 90,688 (6,768 net)



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    [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck Quote
    07-15-2018 , 11:03 PM
    wp
    [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck Quote
    07-16-2018 , 12:48 AM
    looking at the turn decision.

    using 57% for how often hero bricks the river, so 43% as how often hero rivers a low(nutlow), and 40% for hero's avg pot equity when he rivers a low and show's down,

    Hero must go to showdown 3 ways at least 87.6% of the time for calling the turn to be +EV.

    turn fold seems reasonable. and my opinion is flop call seems reasonable as well

    Spoiler:

    1. 57%/43% are of course approximations. 56%/44% is certainly possible, and 54.5/45.5 is if both opponents are playing random hands(100% of cards dealt to them).
    40% avg pot equity is also just an approximation.
    2.its been a while so even moreso then usual there can be mistakes, so here's my work.
    hero's stack on the turn =60920 therefore if hero folds the turn hero's stack remains 60920.
    for calling to be better than folding Hero's avg. stack after calling must be greater than 60920.

    the turn bet is 19344, leaving 41576 behind for the river.

    using 43% for how often hero river's a low (always the nutlow)
    and therefore 57% for how often he bricks the river and folds.

    for calling to be greater than or equal folding:

    .43*X + .57*41576 => 60920

    where x is hero's chipstack when he calls and makes a low and show's down, and 41576 is hero's chipstack when he calls and bricks while 60920 is hero's stack when he folds the turn

    x= 86562

    and using 40% for hero's avg pot equty when he rivers a low.

    for 40% of the pot to be => 86562, pot has to be 216405

    so, when is the avg. pot 216405

    60920*3 + 38808 = 221568 (pot when all 3 go to showdown)

    19344 *3 + 41576 *2 +38808 = 179992 (pot when 1 other goes to showdown and 1 folds)

    221568 *x + 179992 *(1-x) = 216405
    41576x= =36413
    x = ~87.6%

    Last edited by ngFTW; 07-16-2018 at 12:54 AM.
    [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck Quote
    07-16-2018 , 04:46 AM
    Thanks you two. In hindsight, I'm wondering, if I get distracted by the result too much. Especially after seeing the 359J.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ngFTW
    looking at the turn decision.

    Hero must go to showdown 3 ways at least 87.6% of the time for calling the turn to be +EV.
    Thanks for the math. I'm still wrapping my head around it.

    Some thoughts though:
    * If the river brings a low on an A or a 2, the pot is more likely to be headsup, because counterfitted lows are more likely to fold.
    * I think, the same is true, if the SB leads the river big. I will be forced to call and the BTTN seeing a bet and a call in front of him, is often going to fold and if he doesn't then i'm quartered a lot.
    * I wonder, if there is a case, where I can win the whole thing on the river. (Small clubs come to mind).

    All in all, I'd assume, the most likely cases are:
    - seeing a showdown headsup
    - seeing a showdown 3way but getting quartered
    - folding a brick.
    While seeing a showdown 3way and getting half or making two people fold the river are pretty unlikely.

    So if I understand your math correctly, then it is a clear fold, if only because going to showdown 3way is not that likely.
    [micro, nlo8, mtt] wheelrundown: flop & turn linecheck Quote

          
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