Thanks you two. In hindsight, I'm wondering, if I get distracted by the result too much. Especially after seeing the 359J.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ngFTW
looking at the turn decision.
Hero must go to showdown 3 ways at least 87.6% of the time for calling the turn to be +EV.
Thanks for the math. I'm still wrapping my head around it.
Some thoughts though:
* If the river brings a low on an A or a 2, the pot is more likely to be headsup, because counterfitted lows are more likely to fold.
* I think, the same is true, if the SB leads the river big. I will be forced to call and the BTTN seeing a bet and a call in front of him, is often going to fold and if he doesn't then i'm quartered a lot.
* I wonder, if there is a case, where I can win the whole thing on the river. (Small clubs come to mind).
All in all, I'd assume, the most likely cases are:
- seeing a showdown headsup
- seeing a showdown 3way but getting quartered
- folding a brick.
While seeing a showdown 3way and getting half or making two people fold the river are pretty unlikely.
So if I understand your math correctly, then it is a clear fold, if only because going to showdown 3way is not that likely.