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Old 02-19-2017, 11:15 AM   #1
DalTXColtsFan
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Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

It was pointed out in another thread that flatting this hand from the BB against a BTN open shorthanded is fine for deception. As played I 3-bet it for value.

Should I have check-raised the flop instead of donking it?

Since I bet the flop I feel like I have to continue being the aggressor on the turn. If he's chasing a low I don't want to give him a free card. When he raises there he's surely telling me he has a high hand, no? If he has QQ I'm crushed. If he has Q2 I have what, 5 outs? Since he 4-bet me pre is really out of the question for him to also have A2xx?

To see a showdown I have to put 2 more big bets to win a 9.25BB pot. Am I good often enough to see a showdown?

Merge - $0.50/$1 Hi/Lo (6 max) - Omaha Hi/Lo - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 10.47 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
Hero (BB): 24.09 BB
BTN: 12.27 BB (VPIP: 45.89, PFR: 6.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.96, Hands: 353)

SB posts SB 0.25 BB, Hero posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has K 2 A A

BTN raises to 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 1.5 BB, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (4.25 BB, 2 players) 2 2 8
Hero bets 0.5 BB, BTN calls 0.5 BB

Turn: (5.25 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 1 BB, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero ???
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Old 02-19-2017, 02:14 PM   #2
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

It seems likely to me that BTN would raise with any A2 here, making the most likely outcome an almost-freeroll for low (except for a river K or the last A). But you have to call given the odds.
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:23 AM   #3
LUCIUS VARENUS
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

pretty likely he has a full house unless he's overplaying three deuces.

you can't escape with a low and your nut outs make low possible, though it's not so much of a big deal 3 handed. in addition to that point, you have 5 outs (i'm guessing he has deuces full mostly) if you are behind and getting 7 to 1, you don't really have the pot odds to continue (and that's if you're calling and then check folding any non ace or king river.) some % of the time you make aces full you will chop the pot, so really you need the pot to be bigger than normal if you want to draw profitably. i suspect you will end up paying off on a lot of rivers if you call so that makes it even more necessary that the pot be larger to make this a good call.

unless you have some specific reads about him raising two pair hands when low bricks (eg say if he had A3Qx here) i think bet/folding turn is fine.

i really doubt you are scooping unless you improve.

it could well be that you got very unlucky and he has queens full with a strong low draw.

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 02-21-2017 at 12:31 AM.
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Old 02-21-2017, 08:24 AM   #4
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

Pretty standard call unless villain is unbalanced and only raising boats
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:05 PM   #5
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

^
Yup. I am not b/f the turn here.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:13 PM   #6
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

To see a showdown I have to put 2 more big bets to win a 9.25BB pot. Am I good often enough to see a showdown?


For 3 handed, I would check call to showdown. A2 is probably good for high. You have no chance at low and even if another low card hits on river, they may not have it either. If river is high card, after your check they may not bet, especially if something like A348 with clubs or AAxx.

Do you see much 3 bets in that game? I always leave when it drops below 4 players, and even if 6 handed only occasionally are there players that raise all the time, and rarely 3-bets.
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:59 PM   #7
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
Pretty standard call unless villain is unbalanced and only raising boats
which is most villains!

i mean how often do you see people raising turns as bluffs in limit o8?

judging by the guy's preflop stats it looks like he is a loose passive player. very rarely raising pre, 3 betting even less frequently, and playing a ton of hands. when a guy like that wakes up and starts putting a bunch of bets in i think you have to be inclined to think he has a very strong hand, particularly when low isn't complete.

it would be useful information if we knew whether this was a shorthanded game that just got started or if it's one that was full and now players have left, whether it's at a 6 max table or full ring.

i am fairly sure there are certain people who like to play 4 handed and less and who tend to leave once the game fills.

that being said, judging again by the guy's stats, it's probably not this guy.
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Old 02-22-2017, 12:40 AM   #8
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
which is most villains!

i mean how often do you see people raising turns as bluffs in limit o8?

judging by the guy's preflop stats it looks like he is a loose passive player. very rarely raising pre, 3 betting even less frequently, and playing a ton of hands. when a guy like that wakes up and starts putting a bunch of bets in i think you have to be inclined to think he has a very strong hand, particularly when low isn't complete.

it would be useful information if we knew whether this was a shorthanded game that just got started or if it's one that was full and now players have left, whether it's at a 6 max table or full ring.

i am fairly sure there are certain people who like to play 4 handed and less and who tend to leave once the game fills.

that being said, judging again by the guy's stats, it's probably not this guy.
There are certainly enough hands that can raise for value that you still have a lot of equity against, especially A23/A24. Also something like A34xcc or even A3Qx. There aren't all that many combinations of these hands, but there aren't that many combinations of boats either (especially given the 4-bet would usually make an 8 unlikely). And you don't need all that many combos of non-boats to make the call easily +EV.
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Old 02-22-2017, 03:32 AM   #9
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
which is most villains!

i mean how often do you see people raising turns as bluffs in limit o8?

judging by the guy's preflop stats it looks like he is a loose passive player. very rarely raising pre, 3 betting even less frequently, and playing a ton of hands. when a guy like that wakes up and starts putting a bunch of bets in i think you have to be inclined to think he has a very strong hand, particularly when low isn't complete.

it would be useful information if we knew whether this was a shorthanded game that just got started or if it's one that was full and now players have left, whether it's at a 6 max table or full ring.

i am fairly sure there are certain people who like to play 4 handed and less and who tend to leave once the game fills.

that being said, judging again by the guy's stats, it's probably not this guy.
this spot is too standard for me to really want to get into it.. lots of a3 and club hands can raise as a semibluff, maybe even aq or kk is going for thin value, not to mention we could easily chop with another a2xx hand

hero could think about x/c the turn since even if villain doesn't have a bigger made hand he probably isn't folding a low draw but b/f this strong of a hand is generally not the right strategy, i would laugh all the way to the bank if villain's folded this hand to me in some of the games i play
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:46 PM   #10
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
it would be useful information if we knew whether this was a shorthanded game that just got started or if it's one that was full and now players have left, whether it's at a 6 max table or full ring.

i am fairly sure there are certain people who like to play 4 handed and less and who tend to leave once the game fills.

that being said, judging again by the guy's stats, it's probably not this guy.
At Merge, all they have now is 6-max that rarely run.
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Old 02-24-2017, 06:05 PM   #11
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Re: Merge .50/$1 fixed limit - Fold or curse and call?

If only we could sim this. Wait:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
9,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 822Q
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
3%A2,Q2,82,88,QQ)71.31% 3,8673,8675,3122,8360
AdAhKh2s28.69% 6096215,31200

Not folding a hand this strong on this board.

And I think this underrates our equity as a bad villain might raise this turn with A A w/ a 3 and a second club, thinking it's value. Combo wise, the most likely scenario by far is that we're up against another A2 and fading a low card.
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