Here's a hand I played recently. This was in a very loose $6/$12 O8 game. I raised from the big blind with A
2
4
K
. Six or seven of us saw the flop, which was K
J
9
. I do have top pair, but on this flop and in this game, that's not much. For all practical purposes, I missed.
I checked. The UTG player bet. One player called. When the action got back to me, I folded.
The turn was a blank. The UTG player bet again, this time saying, "I flopped it; why are you still calling?" But his opponent called again, saying, "You flopped it, but I have a flush draw."
The river was another blank. UTG bet for a third time, and this time his opponent folded. Then UTG showed his hand: A
T
9
4
. So he flopped the nut flush draw, a gutshot to Broadway, and bottom pair, and never improved. My pair of Kings would have won, but I would have had to call a bet on all three streets to get to showdown.
Seeing his bluff, I asked myself: Given that his flop betting range includes semibluffs, should I have called? And I think the answer is no, I should still fold on the flop. If he or the first caller has a straight or a set, I'm way, way behind. In order for me to win this pot, I need both my opponents to be at the very bottom of their range (e.g., a combo draw for one and something that can't call a bet on the river for the other)
and I need a perfect runout (no hearts, no Queens, no Tens, no pairs that improve either of them)
and I have to have the cojones to call a bet on every street with a single pair. That's just asking too much, I think.
It was a nice starting hand, maybe the best one I'd seen in 3 or 4 hours. But with this flop and no backdoor draws to speak of, just let it go and move on.