Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
I think I like flat-calling here more than in the A2(79) hand that's been getting so much discussion, for several reasons:
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2nd, your hand. These sort of hands are surprisingly mediocre run hot-and-cold heads-up. But your equity in this hand is very nuttish. You are both much more likely to make the nut low and the nut high (wheel) than the A2(79) hand. That other hand has middling hangers, poor low back-up, and a middle flush draw, and will thus often make marginal hands both ways which are likely to escape for half heads-up, but get scooped multiway.
Funny enough I was also thinking I like a cold call better here too. With A2(35) the FD does benefit from thinning the field, whereas (A5)23 the above argument is even stronger.
Also, while we shouldn't overrate ICM or be scared of busting out, there are two reasons it's more relevant here. One, as you said, was the shorter stack here. The other is that we're already in the money and a few additional bustouts will move us up the chart. That said I still think it's only a marginal consideration; we're a long way away from the final couple of tables where chip-to-$ equity distortion is huge.
And finally, the flop distribution (mostly a PLO concept) has a different shape; this hand more than the other one can play a game oriented toward either hitting or missing the flop. If it misses entirely (two or three high cards) then it doesn't have much value. Everything I said about junky two pair there is true here, but junky two pair on this hand is a low draw that nailed the flop. There aren't many flops analogous to Q93 one diamond on the other one, enough to hang around but not enough to be excited about. I guess that's just restating what Nick said.
So I don't hate knocking out the BB and I don't hate flat calling either. Much closer decision than the A2(97) hand IMO.
Last edited by AKQJ10; 07-04-2018 at 02:42 AM.