Quote:
Originally Posted by gergery
if you're not going to knock anyone out with a raise, then calling the flop and raising a reasonable turn card would be better
I'm going back and forth on this one. Raising a "reasonable" turn card here sounds great, but how many "reasonable" turn cards are there? You're basically talking an offsuit J, T, 9 or obviously a Q or 3, but that's only 13 cards.
On the other hand, I looked at some simulations, and we are basically neutral EV against a very undefined set of hands on this flop. And if we get hands with marginal equity to fold by raising, much of that equity may be on the low side and may go to some other player and not us.
When it comes down to it, I'm not sure it matters that much what we do on the flop as long as whatever action we take does not result in us folding out our equity on later streets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
I hadn't mentioned this, but here's an extra factor to consider re: pre: if we raise, the likelihood CO caps it is near 100% b/c that's the way he plays. While we continue to find ourselves in a +EV spot, we have also upped the variance considerably by raising here and increasing the likelihood we become pot committed in uncomfortable situations like this one. I'm generally not a fan of bloating pots pre in this game b/c of this kind of volatility.
These all seem like arguments about how how the hand will -feel- better if you don't raise, not how the hand will make you more money if you don't raise.
Yes, if you end up playing the hand four- or five-ways for four bets preflop, you will end up being more pot committed than if you play it for two bets. But the same can be said about all of your opponents. This demands that everyone in the hand make adjustments postflop, and if you are a better player, you should be able to adjust better than your opponents.
If anything, this should make you more comfortable playing aggressively postflop because your bets will be smaller relative to what you can win, and your opponents will be making even greater mistakes by folding to aggression. And in many cases, knowing you are showdown bound makes the hand easier to play. If you are put in the position of having to call a river bet with a very marginal hand, you'd rather be getting 20-to-1 than 15-to-1.
And you really shouldn't care at all about increasing variance on individual hands in a cash game.