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Originally Posted by phunkphish
No we are not in fantastic shape. A4** has 57% against us. Even 47** and A6** have 52% against us. We are never in great shape since we don't have a real low draw. Thats how O8 works.
With five big bets dead in the pot and only two more rounds of betting left to be punished for our poor implied odds, being heads up with 43% or 48%--that is, getting a payoff of > 2 big bets for our not-very-good hand--is superb shape. That's how fixed-limit poker works.
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Instead of focussing on "OMG I have 2 pair" its better to think about runouts. There aren't many blanks because our hand is not very good. Instead of being greedy and thinking of knocking players out, its better to realise your hand for what it is and play it for what it is.
If we could somehow knock players out (which we agree we probably won't) and get HU, it doesn't matter that our hand is not very good. We have reasonable equity, are going to showdown, and are receiving the overlay of dead money in the pot.
But we shouldn't try to knock players out, even though it would be a fabulous outcome here, simply because it won't work. If we could even reasonably expect to get it to 3-handed, it would probably be the clear choice.
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I agree with your last paragraph, but this hand isn't the right instance to do it.
Indeed. Because we won't eliminate people.