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Old 02-12-2018, 10:25 AM   #1
BirdsallSa
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Live 5/5 Big O - Top 2 and Bad Low Draw vs Two Calling Stations

Villains in this hand are two of the biggest calling stations you can imagine. They will call with bare low draws, bad 2 pair with bad low draws, etc. V1 starts the hand with about 800, V2 starts with about 400 and we cover both. V1 ok button straddles to 20, he raises pretty frequently with trash so we call with Ah2h7c7sKc planning to reraise if he raises but content to go multiway if he checks. 2 callers including V2.

Flop is AK6r, checks to us and we bet pot $85. V2 calls and V1 thinks for a bit and calls.

Turn T completing the rainbow. What are your thoughts on the turn? I think that against opponents who will call on the low side so light, we have to bet this. V1 is raising all sets on the flop and V2 is raising them regularly although not always. Given that and the unlikelihood of QJ I believe we are in good enough shape to value bet here.
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Old 02-13-2018, 08:45 AM   #2
monikrazy
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Re: Live 5/5 Big O - Top 2 and Bad Low Draw vs Two Calling Stations

Running a simple sim based on your description, at least one opponent should have a straight about 25% of the time, and hero should have about 41% total equity. Of course that also assumes villain don't fold worse hands like sets (I ruled out set of aces) or rivered trips.

Given stack sizes and raggedy low redraw, I don't think it is a mandatory double-barrel - I don't think playing this type of hand overagressively against weaker opponents is particularly profitable.
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:36 PM   #3
BirdsallSa
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Re: Live 5/5 Big O - Top 2 and Bad Low Draw vs Two Calling Stations

I’m interested in what ranges you used in your sims. My sims were giving me 35% equity if both call, and 55% equity vs one caller, which seems to me like a shove. I chose to rule out KK which I think is accurate for V1 but I think V2 could be capable of flatting flop with KK. I find it hard to believe that one of them will have a straight 25% of the time when it is a 2 high card gutshot to get there and a lot of their calling range involves low cards. What were your ranges?
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:07 PM   #4
ngFTW
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Re: Live 5/5 Big O - Top 2 and Bad Low Draw vs Two Calling Stations

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
--- I find it hard to believe that one of them will have a straight 25% of the time when it is a 2 high card gutshot to get there and a lot of their calling range involves low cards. What were your ranges?
can confirm

simulation indicates given hero's hand and the given board, with 2 random hands 1 will have a straight on the turn ~25.4% and both will have a straight ~1.4%

tighten their ranges to ppt's top 35% and it only reduces the values to ~23.4% and ~1.2%.


of course these are preflop ranges and don't account for flop action.

making a rudimentary effort to account for the flop call

preflop ranges: 45% and 65%
on the flop: both must have atleast 20% equity (actual board and hero's actual hand)
~30.6% atleast 1 turned straight and ~.95% 2 turned straights.


preflop ranges: 45% and 65%
on the flop: both must have in their ranges '23,24,25,34,35,45,a6'
~22.9% atleast 1 turned straight and ~1.1% 2 turned straights.


preflop ranges: 45% and 65%
on the flop: one must have in their range '23,24,25,34,35,45,a6' the other must have atleast 20% equity.
its ~23.2% and ~.55% when the 45% has the '23,24,25,34,35,45,a6',
its ~26.3 and ~.7 when the 65% has the '23,24,25,34,35,45,a6'


preflop ranges: 45% and 65%
on the flop: the 45% must have '23,24,25,34' each with a 3rd unpaired low card in its range, while the 65% must have atleast 20% equity
~25% atleast 1 turned straight and ~.45% 2 turned straights.

Last edited by ngFTW; 02-13-2018 at 02:17 PM.
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Old 02-16-2018, 01:05 AM   #5
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Re: Live 5/5 Big O - Top 2 and Bad Low Draw vs Two Calling Stations

ng needs some kind of user title like "O8 mathematician."
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