Quote:
Originally Posted by WINNINGSTEK
Honestly for 20BB's BTN V BB just shoving ajj74 isn't all that bad. Wouldn't hurt him that much if he got scooped in that pot and playing it postflop is quite tricky at that stack depth. Additionally he has FE preflop (villain isn't always gonna 4-bet or call).
Against a random hand hero has 50.8% equity. The break-even point for scoops is villain with top 32-33% hand. V is raising better than top 30% so we can never be favourite to scoop with our
weak hand.
If we justify the 3-bet here as standard we are close to justify close eyes and auto 3-bet any raise from V.
The table hasn't been wide 3-bet folding pre and PLO8 is not a raise/fold pre game in general, 5-card even less raise/fold. I understand what u mean about the 20BBs and it is a standard call after making the 3-bet but the 3-bet is not standard. Top 3 to HU in MTT is biggest money jump under ICM so the 20 BBs (especially for V) are worth their absolute maximum, right?
OK u can argue FE but if we assess stack ratios, know villain and see the lines taken in this toernement we know FE is low. V has already GII multiple times with equivalent hands with more chips. When a player is running at his lowest chip stack FE is generally lower too. This villain has multiple FTs in O8 in WCOOP/SCOOP, bigger winnings and more experience than hero, if that makes any difference to how we see it.
It definitely hurts hero if scooped, he would be shortest 3-handed and whole dynamic changes with hero/chipleader and hero/villain stack ratio
Of course hero hand is tough to play post flop because it is trash but:
1) This is OMB the GOAT playing a polarised hand (easier flop reads)
2) The odds of pair > draw hands are greater OTF than OTR
3) Actual hand is scoop for hero on all streets