Quote:
Originally Posted by Warrior24
It sucks, but you ship it. 170*3+107=617, so you are betting 170 to win 617, and only need to win 27.5% of the time. The only time you don't have that is if both players have the respective A4 suited in clubs and spades. Most ranges and guesses I tried has your hand closer to 30%.
Uh, no, he doesn't figure to win 617 if his hand holds up, because some significant portion of the time, someone will make a low and he'll be chopping.
If you figure that half of your opponents are (primarily) on a low draw, then you're fading something like 20 possible low cards on the draw for a chop. And then, you might have to sweat that one of those cards is completing a flush or even some jive-ass straight.
Problems like this are exactly why I fold hands like 101086. These are "middle" cards, meaning that if they hit, you're either on the low side of a straight or somebody has also just hit their low or has a draw to it. Something like 1010A3 would be much, much, much better. As would a high-only hand like QJ1010. (My personal rule is that
any hand containing two or more "middles" goes right into the muck and any hand with one middle is at best marginally playable. Keeps me out of situations like this.) And yes, I realize that we're in a bomb pot and were forced to play. But as soon as I looked at the hand I would have said, "Flop the nut full house or this sucker goes into the muck." We've all been dragged to our doom by a flopped set.