How often do we flop at least a low draw with A2xx - Omaha 8 Poker Forum

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How often do we flop at least a low draw with A2xx

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06-30-2021 , 06:47 PM

BoisePokerPlayer

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 149

Odds of flopping a low draw or better when we hold A2xx

Total flop combos 48 C 3 = 17296
Total two card combos including 3 through 8 : 24 C 2 = 276
Total combos 3 through 8 that are pairs (4 C 2) x 6 = 36
Total two card combos 3 though 8 not paired: 276 – 36 = 240
Cards left in the deck that are not Aces or Deuces = 40
Total three card combos that have at least a low draw not counterfeiting A2: 240 x 40 = 9600
Percent of the time we flop at least a low draw: 9600 / 17296 = 0.555

Is my math correct?

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07-01-2021 , 08:25 AM

Fold&Forget

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 341

From http://www.o8poker.com/Strategy/keypercent.php

Getting Flops

If you have A2, chances you get a made low are ~7%.
If you have A2, chances you get a low draw are ~37%

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07-01-2021 , 10:20 AM

BoisePokerPlayer

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 149

Depending on how many cards we take out of the deck to start I seem to be 7% off. Wonder where the error is?

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07-01-2021 , 10:40 AM

Warrior24

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 259

The first error I see is that your math, as written, assumes XX from A2XX as excluding all 3's through 8's. I haven't done combinatorics in forever, so I know I'm wrong, but when I was fooling around with the numbers last night the math I *thought* made most sense started with ignoring XX and using (24/50)*(20/49)*2=39%. This differs from your math because it doesn't account for your statement that you don't get counterfitted as the 3rd low card. I think you just multiply that 39% by (42/48) to exclude those combos and you end up with 34.2% for non-counterfitted low-draw or better when starting with and A2 combo

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07-01-2021 , 11:25 AM

BoisePokerPlayer

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 149

Thanks,

I updated the math and reposted in the probability forum.

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09-25-2021 , 04:10 PM

MrHrafn

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 90

Drawing to lows as a strategy is wrong, A23x suited Ax is much better. Three of a kind is better.

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