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Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS
At that stage of the tournament this was already a sizeable pot (>50bb), and to me it seemed the most credible hand for him to have that was check/calling was 23** or some kind of A***
Mostly agree on his range, but would add some 24** and probably 34** type hands as well.
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I pretty much figured this pot is ok to win and I didn't feel like he's gonna call with worse if I bet. Maybe I'm wrong. But yeah it was about the fact it was a tournament, and yeah it was a SCOOP so I was playing very carefully.
If you didn't feel like villain would call with worse, then perhaps you have at least a fuzzy read on him that would be pertinent. It's an $11 MTT, so I wouldn't give villain too much credit or play extra carefully based on it being SCOOP.
He's going to have 23** a significant amount of the time heading into the river, but not most of the time, and even then how often is he also going to check the river when he hits wheel? I feel like he has a hand that would be happy if you checked back: A pretty good hand one way, and a fairly weak one the other way, such as AH24, A24L or A34L, 245L, maybe A3LL, 246*, 345* or 346*.
Somewhere around half pot seems about right to me, although I could see anything from ~1/4-3/4 being defensible.
Last edited by AllInNTheDark; 05-20-2019 at 10:59 AM.