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Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Going with a read for a high variance play, right?

11-02-2018 , 07:46 PM
Pretty sure I got this right, but am interested in other opinions. I'm working on defining opponents' ranges. In general, I play a very tight low variance game (probably to a fault). Versus most other players or an unknown, I'd check-fold this flop without a second thought.

This villain I know very well. He rarely 3 bets preflop but when he does, he has an ultra premium starter and is wanting to get it all-in preflop.

I'm in middle position with (A2)J4, it's folded to me, I raise pot. It folds around to villain in SB who 3 bets. Everyone folds and I call.

For villain to 3 bet, especially from the blinds (from where he folds 80%+), I put him on AAxx.

Flop is J28 rainbow giving me top and bottom pair with a small boat and backdoor nut flush redraws. I check because villain c-bets 100%; he pots. I go with my read and repot, he goes all-in, I call. We're in for 150BB each.

Turn Q, now 2 clubs on board. I have spades. River non-club 3. I scoop. Villain flips over (AK)K3 clubs and comments "Caught you bluffing." ... "I had the best of it on the flop. And on the turn I had a low and flush draw."

I ran the math and I have something like 43% equity on the flop when all the $ went in. Pot's laying me 2:1.

Given my read and the math, am I correct to conclude this is a no brainer as played? Are there any reasons to fold anywhere here?
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
11-03-2018 , 12:13 AM
You didn't check the flop because you are IP. You obviously don't want to fold the flop, so your choices are raising, praying to get it in OR flatting to trap, as your hand is very good and will be good on many turns.

Villain's comments are borderline ******ed.
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
11-03-2018 , 02:12 AM
So villain 3b from the sb, before you checked from mp?

Assuming position is not wrong, hand is standardish.
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
12-19-2018 , 05:51 AM
Easy spot to get in your stack. AKK3 is one of the worst scenarios and you still had 43%. On J28r, if stacks allow, you need to get your stack in with every single 2p combo, even A2T8. J28r is a flop where the high only hands aren’t vulnerable whatsoever for the high half, so we can use all 2p hands to deny low equity with very low risk of being scooped
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
12-29-2018 , 01:55 PM
Are we to deduce from this post that you think A3KK is "ultra premium"?
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
12-29-2018 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_spike
Are we to deduce from this post that you think A3KK is "ultra premium"?
Not necessarily.
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
12-29-2018 , 08:51 PM
Is this FL, PL, or NL ?
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
12-30-2018 , 02:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1cnr
Is this FL, PL, or NL ?
PL
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote
01-07-2019 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_spike
Are we to deduce from this post that you think A3KK is "ultra premium"?
I mean..... Where would YOU rank this hand?
Going with a read for a high variance play, right? Quote

      
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