General discussion of fixed limit O8 strategy
08-04-2017
, 11:17 AM
Hi all,
I am doing some data analysis of about 1000 hands of recent runbad.
I am planning on posting maybe 5 hands or so, but I am posting this first so that I can be reassured what I am looking for, rather than just post the five biggest losers/winners etc.
I am focusing this thread and the data on 4-6 handed FLO8. I do well three handed or heads up, and was surprised to run bad in the 4-6 handed game recently.
My hunch is this....
The object is to scoop. Especially when short handed, the traditional scenario where nut low gets half of a giant multiway pot just does not happen, that often.
Lets not get sidetracked on what a good starting hand is, lets focus on scooping the whole pot with whatever hand we have chosen to play.
So, if the object is to scoop, whenever possible, I think we can break the streets down and theorize on each street.
The flop...
If the flop is HLL and I have nut low draw but almost no possible way to scoop, other than everyone folding, should I raise or checkraise? Then I can bet when the turn completes my low and sometimes scoop right there. Maybe the low turn also completes a scary draw that will fold out some top two pair hands. This also protects my flop raises and checkraises with double nuts type hands from being exploitable.
For some reason I have been check/calling the nut low draw and thinking that nobody will fold anyway so I can fold when the turn does not complete my low.
Obviously on a HLL flop with a nut low draw I am jamming any flush or straight draws as well as even top pair.
But this is about scooping, so let me double back.
If I can not scoop, as in there is no turn card that will give me a nut, I am ready to check/fold. I have been banging on a wall, even with second low draw, and it is driving me bonkers.
Now, the turn. This is where scooping really starts to happen...
Firstly, the awful turn. When the turn card just wrecks my hand (and gives me a lame two pair or such) I think I have to just bail right there. Even 4 handed, a random two pair, even on a board that is not gone low yet, is just rubbish.
The perfect turn. Sweet, we get what we wanted, but the hand is not over yet. We have a nut, lets raise as much as possible, with only a few exceptions where we have a vulnerable straight and the turn has lots of scoopable redraws we have to dodge on the river. I am generally not too concerned with getting quartered with nut low in fixed limit. When it happens, it happens. But how about a naked low, with no protection? Is that jammable on the turn? With no way to scoop, maybe not. We still have to dodge a bad river...
The draw turn...
THIS IS WHERE I FALTER. If we are trying to scoop, and the board is not low yet, then any turn that gives us 8 clean outs to a scoop should be great for us. This is where the aggro loose players outplay me. They have 4 random cards, make it to the turn, and jam any 4 outs that will scoop if the river hits.
This has seemed like madness to me, but the math is in THEIR favor (maybe not with just 4 outs, but not too far off).
Lets pause right here and imaging a toy game.....
Flop has 4 cards, three players are dealt hands and ante 2BEts each for a total pot of 6 Bbets. Any player can bet either 0, 1, or 2 more Bbets into that pot.
If you bet 2, and are the only player to do so, you win. If you bet 1 and both other players bet 0 you win. If you hold the best hand after a river is dealt, you win.
This is of course overly simple, but should illustrate how betting 2 (or raising a turn draw in the real game) is highly profitable when you have 8 outs to scoop, and maybe an emergency low to get half the pot some of the time.
If all your scoop outs are good, then you have .18 percent chance to scoop. You will sometimes have extra outs that could win, or already be holding the best hand, so lets say 10 outs total.
That brings you up to 22 percent equity of a pot that is 6Bbets. So to bet only 1 is to underbet, and to bet 2 is to still not be bluffing, you own 2Bbets of a 10 Bbet pot.
By betting 2 you might win the hand there, you might make your hand on the river, and you can expect to get a call of 1 more bet on the river with your nuts, so you are actually betting 2Bbets into a pot of 12Bbets!
Pot was 6...
Our turn raise was called by one player so 4 more....
Our river bet was called so 2 more...
So we get to put in .16 of the money and have roughly 22 percent equity, plus any times everyone folds.
The river...
We get the card we wanted. I bet here, I am not fancy on the river. Should I be?
River blank....
We did not get there. But maybe neither did our opponent? I check anything of value, and the weakest possible hands, like that emergency low, I might bet/fold. I really hate to check/call the river unless I improved on the river but not the way I wanted to, like maybe top two pair. But what if the river completes a low, and we have no low hand? Is even the top two pair worth putting in 1Bet to win 6? What if it goes low and it is bet/called around to me. I can complete the action and showdown with top two for half of a 14Bet pot. 7:1 is pretty decent, but there will be straights and sets out there in multiway rivers...
River is a draw we did not want...
I hate to bail at the end, but a random 2 pair is just fools gold here. But, maybe opponent hates that river card also? They will have air some times, and fold. The players I face seem like they will not fold even top pair, especially when the board is not low. Should I expect them to fold more and bluff scary rivers? Should this go into the bet/fold range?
Ok sorry for the wall of text...
TL
R it is all about scooping...
I am doing some data analysis of about 1000 hands of recent runbad.
I am planning on posting maybe 5 hands or so, but I am posting this first so that I can be reassured what I am looking for, rather than just post the five biggest losers/winners etc.
I am focusing this thread and the data on 4-6 handed FLO8. I do well three handed or heads up, and was surprised to run bad in the 4-6 handed game recently.
My hunch is this....
The object is to scoop. Especially when short handed, the traditional scenario where nut low gets half of a giant multiway pot just does not happen, that often.
Lets not get sidetracked on what a good starting hand is, lets focus on scooping the whole pot with whatever hand we have chosen to play.
So, if the object is to scoop, whenever possible, I think we can break the streets down and theorize on each street.
The flop...
If the flop is HLL and I have nut low draw but almost no possible way to scoop, other than everyone folding, should I raise or checkraise? Then I can bet when the turn completes my low and sometimes scoop right there. Maybe the low turn also completes a scary draw that will fold out some top two pair hands. This also protects my flop raises and checkraises with double nuts type hands from being exploitable.
For some reason I have been check/calling the nut low draw and thinking that nobody will fold anyway so I can fold when the turn does not complete my low.
Obviously on a HLL flop with a nut low draw I am jamming any flush or straight draws as well as even top pair.
But this is about scooping, so let me double back.
If I can not scoop, as in there is no turn card that will give me a nut, I am ready to check/fold. I have been banging on a wall, even with second low draw, and it is driving me bonkers.
Now, the turn. This is where scooping really starts to happen...
Firstly, the awful turn. When the turn card just wrecks my hand (and gives me a lame two pair or such) I think I have to just bail right there. Even 4 handed, a random two pair, even on a board that is not gone low yet, is just rubbish.
The perfect turn. Sweet, we get what we wanted, but the hand is not over yet. We have a nut, lets raise as much as possible, with only a few exceptions where we have a vulnerable straight and the turn has lots of scoopable redraws we have to dodge on the river. I am generally not too concerned with getting quartered with nut low in fixed limit. When it happens, it happens. But how about a naked low, with no protection? Is that jammable on the turn? With no way to scoop, maybe not. We still have to dodge a bad river...
The draw turn...
THIS IS WHERE I FALTER. If we are trying to scoop, and the board is not low yet, then any turn that gives us 8 clean outs to a scoop should be great for us. This is where the aggro loose players outplay me. They have 4 random cards, make it to the turn, and jam any 4 outs that will scoop if the river hits.
This has seemed like madness to me, but the math is in THEIR favor (maybe not with just 4 outs, but not too far off).
Lets pause right here and imaging a toy game.....
Flop has 4 cards, three players are dealt hands and ante 2BEts each for a total pot of 6 Bbets. Any player can bet either 0, 1, or 2 more Bbets into that pot.
If you bet 2, and are the only player to do so, you win. If you bet 1 and both other players bet 0 you win. If you hold the best hand after a river is dealt, you win.
This is of course overly simple, but should illustrate how betting 2 (or raising a turn draw in the real game) is highly profitable when you have 8 outs to scoop, and maybe an emergency low to get half the pot some of the time.
If all your scoop outs are good, then you have .18 percent chance to scoop. You will sometimes have extra outs that could win, or already be holding the best hand, so lets say 10 outs total.
That brings you up to 22 percent equity of a pot that is 6Bbets. So to bet only 1 is to underbet, and to bet 2 is to still not be bluffing, you own 2Bbets of a 10 Bbet pot.
By betting 2 you might win the hand there, you might make your hand on the river, and you can expect to get a call of 1 more bet on the river with your nuts, so you are actually betting 2Bbets into a pot of 12Bbets!
Pot was 6...
Our turn raise was called by one player so 4 more....
Our river bet was called so 2 more...
So we get to put in .16 of the money and have roughly 22 percent equity, plus any times everyone folds.
The river...
We get the card we wanted. I bet here, I am not fancy on the river. Should I be?
River blank....
We did not get there. But maybe neither did our opponent? I check anything of value, and the weakest possible hands, like that emergency low, I might bet/fold. I really hate to check/call the river unless I improved on the river but not the way I wanted to, like maybe top two pair. But what if the river completes a low, and we have no low hand? Is even the top two pair worth putting in 1Bet to win 6? What if it goes low and it is bet/called around to me. I can complete the action and showdown with top two for half of a 14Bet pot. 7:1 is pretty decent, but there will be straights and sets out there in multiway rivers...
River is a draw we did not want...
I hate to bail at the end, but a random 2 pair is just fools gold here. But, maybe opponent hates that river card also? They will have air some times, and fold. The players I face seem like they will not fold even top pair, especially when the board is not low. Should I expect them to fold more and bluff scary rivers? Should this go into the bet/fold range?
Ok sorry for the wall of text...
TL
R it is all about scooping...
