weird spot, been talking it over with a friend and not sure whats best.

25-50 bigO (hi low) with 1200 cap. max bet 500 at any time and hard cap pf 1200.

time pot. UTG says time pot, I dont want to see a flop and opens for 550.

folds to us in the big blind as have A2Q98 (suited 9).

I folded but some people have diasgreed. most likely utg has any AA combo

easy fold

Could you relay their argument for not folding?

is this a public game?

I'll take a stab at it -

ProPokerTools 5-Card Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
As2dQh8c9c	44.35%	159,113	216,470	13,673	176,552	61,290
AA	55.65%	220,056	369,857	13,673	91,220	61,290

We are getting 625:500 and our hand plays well for the cap. We can put in 700 more good a lot of the time. We are getting basically exactly the right pot odds against a hand that clearly doesn't want to see the flop (and in my PPT sim I gave him any AA which is too generous)

I was having a hard time following this structure. Even with the time-pot hero can still call. It's hard for hero to have worse than 45.5% equity vs reasonable ranges. Against more aggro opponents it's more like 47-49.

But 45% is still the key number, because calling 450 at an 10% equity disadvantage is cheaper than folding 50 + heros share of sb. With the timepot and weaker flush potential you can make a stronger case for a fold but it should always be a close decision unless villain is a rock.

Depends how much you like spinning $500 and how many of those you can sustain given the closeness in equity

Regardless of equity though you're not going to be putting the other $700 in with a fistpump as much as your equity suggests, because the equity is across all 5 cards and represents all possible permutations, including very marginal situations that are in no way fistpump worthy.

If only there was a flopzilla for this

To express my thoughts better I ask:

Are you putting in the $700 on naked nut low draw, naked nut low, 2nd pair and the various other dicey propositions or only the slamdunks (2pair+, top pair or nut flush draw+nut low draw, nut low+top pair+)? If only the slamdunks, how often do you think those come up? Even certain two pair situations can give you less than 50% equity.

Seems to me you have to put in the other $700 priced in in marginal situations more often than you are getting the slamdunks

this was my issue as well. I think its difficult to determine how much relizebale equity we have.

forget the board where we flop low draw or low draw and pair, what about the flops like KJ5 where we have backdoor low and a gutter. Were gonna have close to 35% equity on that flop and are getting 2:1.

or even flops like 998 er either have to call it off or fold away 25% equity getting 2-1.

sure there will be spots where we open ship and he callls it off dead but this will wont happen all that often since its pretty hard to flop AA that dead with this hand. basicallt need 3-4-5 and then hes just gonna correctly fold.


yes, sometimes it comes 3-4-6 and we shove and he folds bad AA but its bene hard for me to quantify how little realizeable equity we have pre-flop while also taking into account how often he gets it in really bad or getting free-rolled or the times he actually folds.

in all hoensty, it probably wont come up enough to matter much and calling or folding is probably not gonna make much of a differnece in our winrate