No HH for this one but here's the situation:
Raise UTG with A24K (10 handed)
Loosish BTN calls
Loose preflop BB calls
Both pretty passive dudes

Flop
47J

BB leads
i put him on range of mainly flush or combo draws and sets/two pair with low draw. I suspect he wants me to raise so he can 3 bet, which is why he has led rather than gone for the checkraise.
Not doing great against that range, plus my pair of 4s means i can now be counterfeited, and I don't see much merit to raising to even give him the satisfaction of the 3! he wants to put in. So i only call.
BTN folds (unfortunately)

Turn 7
Board 47J7

BB bets again.
Seems like this smashed him for high and I can only win half.
It's a HU situation now, so should I call to try to get my money back?

In my opinion, no, but just checking up.

As an important aside, how many bets should the pot be on the turn to call here and do better than breakeven?

This type of situation happens quite often when I play, especially when the full ring games have nitted up and we see a lot of HU and only 3 way pots. So I thought it should be worth posting, to help me and others who will get in this spot.

Yes. You have 16 outs to nut low so 2.5:1 but are getting 3.5:1 pot odds so +ev on a call. Subject to whether you think he also has A2 but I would guess my chance at getting quartered is tiny here.

For your other question, in this situation (2 low cards on flop and drawing to nut low with only 2 live low cards) pretty much once a bet goes in on flop you will always have odds to chase low draw to the end. Blind vs blind where flop is checked and then he bets turn you would not.

HU I would call.

Shoot - didnt read correctly that you raised preflop. So now its 5.75:1 on a call so its fine even if you get quartered. This also changes math in my 2nd answer if you're only talking raised pots.

It's a math problem at this point.

Assuming your opponent does not also have A2, your equity on the turn is about 18% (16/44 x 50%).

But you're getting quartered as often as 36% of the time (that's the chance that someone else was also dealt A2 in this hand), which reduces your equity to <15%.

By my calculation, the pot is laying you 5 to 1 (6 small bets preflop + 2 small bets on the flop + 1 big bet on the turn; I assume the small blind goes to the drop). You need the pot to be laying you at least 7 to 1 to make this call profitable.

I must confess that my gut feeling was to call the turn with 16 outs for the nut low. That may be because I'm used to playing in much looser games, in which I'm often getting 10 to 1 or 12 to 1 in this spot. But the math doesn't lie. This pot is too small, you're only going for half, and there's a good chance you're getting quartered.

Thank you for posing this question.

Let's assume you have A23K in this scenario instead of A24K. So you can't be counterfeited. Now your equity on this turn is just under 20% (assuming you get quartered about 36% of the time you make the nut low). In this case you would need pot odds of at least 5.25 to 1 to make calling the turn profitable.

I admit mathematics is not my strong suit but I can see you've made the right calculation by multiplying by 50%, since it is a call for half the pot.

What you didn't do though is match this up with odds for half the pot by halving the pot odds as well. I'm fairly sure this is what should be done in such a calculation.

I think possibly greybeard123 didn't calculate correctly either.

Am I not correct in saying
a) equity is around 18% (as you mentioned), halved from the overall chance of making a nut low
but also
b) pot odds being laid on the turn are also halved from just over 5 to 1 to just over 2.5 to 1

and that therefore: it's an incorrect call, since equity of something like 28% is needed just to break even?

Also I want to clarify I was referring to when missing low on the turn, and there is one card left to come. I was in no prior doubt about at least calling on flops when holding nut low draw!

I don't assume to have solved the issue, so if I'm wrong, please help improve the thread by correcting me.