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Originally Posted by agamblerthen
Thank you for that link—very helpful. I've always wondered about a few of those, like the chance that someone else has A2 when I do (~36%).
to be clear, the ~36% chance is
at least 1 of the other 9 players that were dealt cards was dealt A2**. ~3.5% of the time its 2 players that are also dealt A2**, and ofc, when fewer players are dealt cards the probability decreases, ie. when 9 handed rather than 10 handed its ~32.4%.
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But what if I have AA2x or A22x—what's the chance that someone else has A2 then?
when hero holds AA2 or A22 it's ~25.6% at least 1 of the other 9 players that were dealt cards was dealt A2**. ~1.25% of the time its 2 players that are also dealt A2**. decreases to ~23% when 9 handed.
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If I have A3, the chance that someone else has A2 is ~52%. But what if I have AA3x, or even AAA3—what are the chances that someone else has A2 then?
simulation gives me the result ~44.6% and not ~52% as the probability that at least 1 player was dealt A2 when hero's holding A3 and 9 other players were dealt cards.
when hero holds AA3 the probability decreases to ~32.6%.
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Once I raised pre with AAA3 and sure enough someone beat me for the low with A2. And I recall a handful of times when I've raised pre with hands like AA34ds, AA35ss, or AA3Jds only to find myself up against an A2 for the low. Now I wonder if I'm overvaluing these AA3x hands preflop.
i don't think its possible to overvalue AA3*. you can play it poorly postflop.