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Do you trust your EV line? Do you trust your EV line?

01-10-2016 , 09:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Max12
Is that right?:
35.18+20.83= 56.01% (one of us will scoop the hand)
100-56.01=43.99%(it will be a split pot)

P.S: Thanks everyone for respond
yes.



(as splits are typically 50/50 splits), 43.99/2=22
35.18+22 =57.18 ( pot equity = scoops + splits)

20.83+22= 42.83

57.18+42.83=100 (hero pot equity + villian pot equity =100%)

Last edited by ngFTW; 01-10-2016 at 09:33 AM.
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-10-2016 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by streityboy
They are moaning about one aspect of poker that they cannot control, variance, without having a comprehension that the equity figure used is based on something probably similar to PPT (a minimum of probably 600,000 trials).

You therefore need to play piles of hands.
.
since the tracking software can only use hands with cards exposed, and use only actual hands and not ranges, the equity figure is always determined by an 'exhaustive' calculation.
for example if heads-up and all in on the turn then 40 trials (the 40 possible river cards) are all that is required to determine equity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by streityboy
Personally I agree with Pokertracker logic on what to call it. This isn't semantics.
right its nomenclature.

Last edited by ngFTW; 01-10-2016 at 09:39 AM. Reason: i added the 'nomencature' to help onmybike's point that posting is just about trying to look smart :)
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-10-2016 , 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by streityboy
However, no one has explained in detail the benefit of knowing this stat and how knowing it has directly improved their win rate.
It is designed to measure your win rate, nothing else. I think my previous posts ITT say everything necessary about the whole subject. If you disagree with them, please let me know.
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-10-2016 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
It is designed to measure your win rate, nothing else. I think my previous posts ITT say everything necessary about the whole subject. If you disagree with them, please let me know.
I do slightly with the first sentence. See below.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...9&postcount=31

I actually think we are of a similar viewpoint. The use of the stat is very narrow. I don't think this is appreciated by a lot of people.

I believe one of your posts highlighted some of the other issues. They were valid points.

Overall, knowing my adjusted winnings doesn't make me a better player. Therefore, personally I have never used it. I don't see how it would ever increase my win rate.

Last edited by streityboy; 01-10-2016 at 03:18 PM.
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-10-2016 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by streityboy
I do slightly with the first sentence. See below.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...9&postcount=31

I actually think we are of a similar viewpoint. The use of the stat is very narrow. I don't think this is appreciated by a lot of people.

I believe one of your posts highlighted some of the other issues. They were valid points.

Overall, knowing my adjusted winnings doesn't make me a better player. Therefore, personally I have never used it. I don't see how it would ever increase my win rate.
I Disagree, A lot of regs i played saved a lot of money because of the stats. (and increase there winrate this way ) If the stat did not exist these player who run hot would keep playing and lose lots of money to me. Now they did see they where only lucky with all-ins and that they get crusht EV wise so they stop playing me.
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-11-2016 , 02:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by streityboy
...

However, no one has explained in detail the benefit of knowing this stat and how knowing it has directly improved their win rate. ...

1. Lose a bunch of similar all-ins. Let's say naked top set hands on a drawy flop, like QKQK on a 45K board.

2. Think to yourself, "Wow I'm running really bad here!"

3. Look at allin line on graph and discover you weren't running nearly as bad as you thought, and were even an underdog in some of them.

4. Vow to yourself to play top set more, uh, delicately in the future in similar spots.

5. ????

6. Profit?

____________


It's like this: we all probably agree the worst mistake for a player to make is to blame bad play on bad luck, but IMHO the 2nd biggest mistake is the opposite, to blame bad luck on bad play. Then you change things up and start actually playing bad. It's like that old trope, of the noob NLHE player saying, "well I lost with AA the last 42 times I raised it pre so now I'm just gonna limp it behind 17 limpers from now on!" And this really happens all the time (the numbers 17 and 42 might be exaggerations.)
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-11-2016 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by omybike
I Disagree, A lot of regs i played saved a lot of money because of the stats. (and increase there winrate this way ) If the stat did not exist these player who run hot would keep playing and lose lots of money to me. Now they did see they where only lucky with all-ins and that they get crusht EV wise so they stop playing me.
bink
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-11-2016 , 03:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by omybike
If you guys know what i know from the EV line in o8 you would never look to it the same way as you did.
A classic insightful OMB post, that doesn't say or reveal anything.
Do you trust your EV line? Quote
01-11-2016 , 08:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by streityboy
I do slightly with the first sentence. See below.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...9&postcount=31
It's a good post, but there is nothing new for me. Again, EV-corrected result does not quantify your expected win rate accurately, it just does a better job at it than your actual win rate. Someone might jump the conclusions after 5k hands, but that doesn't make the stat useless. Knowing your actual win rate doesn't make you a better player either btw.
Do you trust your EV line? Quote

      
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