since for some reason that escapes me now i got involved in this thread, I'm going to add some clarity amongst so much gibberish posted by OP
like post #71
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchOnDaRocks
Ok not arbitrary at all in fact I did not even first present the 35%. It was Munga who may have taken it from Newall who is a great poker mind.
But the math here is clear. When you realize more equity your average equity is going way down and clearly you are taking the worst of it. This is according to the rankings a highly ranked hand, the issue should be clear cut yet it is not.
So instead of debating anything of real substance you fall back on “play better”.
I hoped for better. If you are right that 95% is profitable as a defend it should be more clear from math that we are good yet I don’t think we see that. Imagine what we would see with worse hands?
A9(T7) has 43.6% avg. pot equity hu vs. 25%6h
QJT4 unsuited has 34.5% avg. pot equity vs. 25%6h
(874)3 has 40.2% avg. pot equity hu vs. 25%6h
(see post #5 for the 3 specific hands and an opponent's range; A9(T7), QJT4o, (874)3 and 25%6h)
these equity figures assume that both hands reach showdown.
when the avg.pot equity assumes showdown the equity has typically been refered to as 'hot/cold equity', 'preflop equity' and often in the context of equity realization 'raw equity'.
equity realization attempts to factor for post-flop variables to attempt to provide a 'better' equity figure then the 'raw equity' to use in determining whether it is profitable to continue with(not fold) a hand.
if a79T can 'realize' 53% of its raw equity(43.6%) then it's 'equity realization' is 23.1% avg. pot equity.
qtj4 must 'realize' 67% of its raw equity(34.5%) in order to achieve an 'equity realization' of 23.1%.
8743must 'realize' 55% of its raw equity(41.95%) in order to achieve an 'equity realization' of 23.1%.
(consequently A79T can afford to 'unrealize' 47% of its raw equity whereas QJT4 can only afford to'unrealize 33%' of its raw equity and 8743 can only afford to 'unrealize 45% of its raw equity, if it wants to achieve the same 'realized equity figure of 23.1%).
given the above, as a framework on which to discuss what OP wished to accomplish, then if achieving 'realized equity' of >23% for any given hand defending its bb vs a single 25%6h opening range leads to profitability, then OP wished to determine each hand's 'realized equity' or each hand's 'equity realization factor'(53%,57.5% or 66% in the examples above).
(see post #43 for the 23% figure)
(however in my opinion, although >23% is the correct figure for the immediate situation, profitably seeing a flop, its probably not the correct figure in the context of showdown)
there are multiple factors to consider in determining a hand's 'realized equity' or the 'equity realization factor'. generally agreed upon factors include position, stakes, skill, and hand playabilty.
as position is agreed upon here to be OOP, and stakes agreed upon here to be LIMIT, and skill a rather unique variable, OP was exploring playability.
The flop's interaction with the hand and the opponent's range factors strongly into 'playability'.
so data pertaining to each hands interaction with the flop was of concern to OP.
what data he was actually asking for and what data may actually be useful are just 2 questions i also don't have the answer to.
but a rudimentary amount of data might be for the (874)3
hand vs. 25%6h | when flop equity | frequency | avg.shwdn equity | the equity u 'realize when u go to showdown |
---|
8x7x4x3y | n/a | 100% | ~42% | ~42% w/100% of 8743 |
8x7x4x3y | >=65% | 12.1% | ~76% | ~9.2% when 8743 flops >=65%equity |
8x7x4x3y | >=50% <65% | ~21.1% | 57% | ~11.8% when 8743 flops >=50%<65%equity |
8x7x4x3y | >=35% <50% | ~29.5% | 43% | ~12.7% when 8743 flops >=35%<50%equity |
8x7x4x3y | <35% | 37.35% | ~22% | ~8.2% when 8743 flops <35%equity |
we can see the 'raw equity' preflop was ~42%, however if our plan was to see the flop, fold all hands that were determined to have <35% flop equity and go to showdown with all hands determined to have >=35% flop equity our 'equity realization' would be ~33.7%
using the data from the tables in post #39
for 4TJQo
we can see the 'raw equity' preflop was ~35%, however if our plan was to see the flop, fold all hands that were determined to have <35% flop equity and go to showdown with all hands determined to have >=35% flop equity our 'equity realization' would be ~24.5%
for A9(7T)
we can see the 'raw equity' preflop was ~44%, however if our plan was to see the flop, fold all hands that were determined to have <35% flop equity and go to showdown with all hands determined to have >=35% flop equity our 'equity realization' would be ~35.3%
under this metric, we can see that QJT4unsuited is rather different from the 2 other hands.
consequently under this metric, if we were to suppose our that our 'equity realization' needed to be >30% for defending to be profitable than either QTJ40 isn't profitable to defend, our we must think it possible to 'realize equity' with some hands that have <35% flop equity.
here's some data with regard to when QJT4o vs.25%6h flops <35% equity.
Results of a 24126 trials simulation
handtype | how often 'Ay7x9zTx' has handtype on flop | how often 'Ay7x9zTx' would scoop at shwdn | how often '25%6h' would scoop at shwdn |
---|
-- all -- | 100% | 10.9% | 75.3% |
strflush | 0 | 0 | 0 |
quads | 0 | 0 | 0 |
fullhouse | 0 | 0 | 0 |
flush | 0 | 0 | 0 |
sraight | .08 | | |
straight w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
straight w/o fd | .08 | .01 | .06 |
trips | .26 | | |
trips w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
trips w/o fd | .26 | .06 | .18 |
top 2pair | .74 | | |
top 2pair w/o either draw | .64 | .12 | .44 |
top 2pair w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
top 2pair w/strd | .1 | .01 | .08 |
top 2pair w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
top&btm 2pair | .59 | | |
top&btm 2pair w/o either draw | .57 | .11 | .36 |
top&btm 2pair w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
top&btm 2pair w/strd | .02 | 0 | .02 |
top&btm 2pair w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
btm 2pair | .99 | | |
btm 2pair w/o either draw | .68 | .12 | .53 |
btm 2pair w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
btm 2pair w/strd | .31 | .05 | .24 |
btm 2pair w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
top pair | 11.3 | | |
top pair w/o either draw | 10.69 | 1.72 | 7.37 |
top pair w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
top pair w/strd | .61 | .13 | .47 |
top pair w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2nd pair | 15 | | |
2nd pair w/o either draw | 12.73 | 1.4 | 9.07 |
2nd pair w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2nd pair w/strd | 2.27 | .57 | 1.6 |
2nd pair w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
btm pair | 7.93 | | |
btm pair w/o either draw | 7.46 | .58 | 5.24 |
btm pair w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
btm pair w/strd | .47 | .12 | .31 |
btm pair w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
nothing | 63.11 | | |
nothing w/o either draw | 56.11 | 4.34 | 45.66 |
nothing w/fd | 0 | 0 | 0 |
nothing w/strd | 7.0 | 1.51 | 4.6 |
nothing w/both draws | 0 | 0 | 0 |
can you find enough equity here?
i will end this post with Good luck, but i certainly won't be PMing you, OP.