Quote:
Originally Posted by Caterina
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
Ah 4s 7s 5c | 44.88% | 5,802 | 52,506 | 594 | 5,892 | 441 |
A2 hh, A29J, A2TT, A27J, A29Q, A2JQ | 55.12% | 12,450 | 12,540 | 594 | 59,307 | 441 |
I interpret this as: Since it is a headsup pot, the times we chop, don't matter. So, if I compare the scoops, then I'm ~ 2,5:1 dog against this range and a potsized raise, offers me 1:2, which means, I should fold. Do I understand this correctly?
65,640 trials (exhaustive)
the 65,640 trials is the number of times the 'simulation' selected and dealt a hand that fit the parameters you specified(hero's hand, the villains range, the 4 card board)
the exhaustive indicates it is not an approximation but rather it takes into account every possible outcome. it will say (randomized) when it uses an approximation(which it will do when the 'exhaustive' number becomes too large).
pot equity 44.88%
the result, the "pot equity" is an average of the results of the 65,640 trials.
pot equity of 44.88% regardless of its constituent parts(scoops, splits of 50/50 and splits of 25/75) is how much of the final pot on average the hand you specified is worth at showdown when you average the results of all the possible showdowns.
an example, when the showdown pot is $10 and Ah4s7s5c has 44.88% pot equity then Ah4s7s5c is worth $4.49 on average at showdown.
if $4 was in the pot and villain went allin for $3, such that it would cost hero $3 to call and showdown, the pot would be $10, with 44.88% pot equity (hero's hand being worth $4.49) hero has a positive expectation (+ev) to call because $4.49 is obviously greater then $3.
villain's expectation is also positive as villain's pot equity is even greater then hero's.
with regard to the other figures(besides pot equity) given by the simulation, these are the number of trials that occurred, and its these numbers that permit the pot equity figure to be established.
so hero scoops 5802 trials of 65640 trials or 8.8% of the time.
villain's range scoops 12450 trials of 65640 trials or 18.98% of the time.
5802+12450 /65640 = someone scoops 27.8% ott and consequently the pot is split 72.2% ott. since the ties(tiesHI and tiesLo are very small numbers relative to the number of trials, less then 1%) you can conclude that nearly all of the 72.2% are 50/50 splits.
the proof is that when you scoop you are awarded 100% of the pot and when you split 50/50 you are awarded 50% of the pot, therefore if you scoop 8.8% and you split 50/50 72% then .088*1 +.72*.5 = .448 or hero averages being awarded 44.8% of the pot.
ps. remember that pot equity is showdown equity. it requires that you get to showdown to realize that equity. the 'cost' to showdown is often greater then the bet currently in front of you. if you fold before showdown you don't realize that equity.
a minor aside is that you wrote A2hh and not A2:hh. : =and.
so A2hh indicates Ace two and the 2 cards of unspecified rank are both hearts(the Ace and the two the 4 suits are each possible if they aren't dead).
A2:hh indicates Ace two and 2 hearts(that is 2 of the 4 cards are hearts and since in this instance th 2 can be a heart therefore 1 of the 2 unspecified cards need not be a heart).
its a minor difference, especially here because the Ah is in hero's hand but it changes the composition(the number of possible combinations) of the specified hand.
Last edited by ngFTW; 10-24-2017 at 10:52 AM.
Reason: spelling, clarity(i did my best)