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[Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions

10-22-2017 , 04:40 PM
Situation: I have been calling/limping with ~90% of hands for the last hour and the day before (for learning purposes). Villain is a reg, multitabling 6 tables, who just happens to always find a seat right behind me. (He also did that the day before)

    Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 Pot Limit Omaha H/L Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37854752

    CO: $1.49 (74.5 bb)
    BTN: $3.57 (178.5 bb)
    SB: $1.15 (57.5 bb)
    BB: $1.13 (56.5 bb)
    UTG: $1.42 (71 bb)
    Hero (MP): $2.06 (103 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with 4 7 5 A
    UTG folds, Hero calls $0.02, CO raises to $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.04
    From his raisesizing I can narrow his range to A2BX type hands.
    (I picked up, that he minraises all other hands, except AA, where he pots it).

    Flop: ($0.15) 8 T 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10
    With my small wrap and no made lo, I'm not going anywhere, yet.
    Also, there is no paint on the flop, so I think, he shouldn't have a pair or better very often, but the hearts bother me.

    Turn: ($0.35) 5 (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.26, CO raises to $1.12, Hero calls $0.86
    Hm, I'm lost. I've made my nonnut-straight and my opponent is likely holding the nutlo at this point and thus freerolling me. I default to betting.

    What's the right play here?
    Do I automatically fold, when he raises?

    How does this change, when we add the NFD to my hand?

    River: ($2.59) A (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.78, CO calls $0.21 and is all-in

    Spoiler:
    Results: $3.01 pot ($0.10 rake)
    Final Board: 8 T 6 5 A
    CO showed J 9 A 2 and lost (-$1.49 net)
    Hero showed 4 7 5 A and won $2.91 ($1.42 net)



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    Last edited by Caterina; 10-22-2017 at 04:56 PM.
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-22-2017 , 10:12 PM
    stick it all in on the turn
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-23-2017 , 01:41 PM
    I don't think playing all of your hands is good for "learning purposes". I think you should practice playing correctly. So I would fold pre.

    On the flop vs A2Bx you are 36%. So this is a fold. You technically have the right odds vs his range but you are OOP and could be in very bad shape.

    On the turn I would just check. If you believe he has A2 then you absolutely cannot bet here. You are 52% vs A2Bx but again, could be in much worse shape than that. You have to just call. If you had the NFD I would still just check-call.

    River is smart. I would have probably just checked but I think your bet is correct. You have deduced that he is likely counterfeit and you could be scooping here. If you were deeper you might have to just check.
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-23-2017 , 03:58 PM
    I'd prefer just folding pre.

    Flop a clear check-call to me.

    Turn I think you can either check or lead, but if you lead, folding is a complete disaster. This is definitely not a bet-folding hand.
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-23-2017 , 04:05 PM
    Thank you for your analysis.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ZockenRobot
    I don't think playing all of your hands is good for "learning purposes". I think you should practice playing correctly. So I would fold pre.
    Yes, I have stopped with this. I wanted to find out about hands that are playable for me, that I routinely folded (I played very/too tight) and I found some. It also was nice to see how the table(s) react to it.

    Quote:
    On the flop vs A2Bx you are 36%. So this is a fold. You technically have the right odds vs his range but you are OOP and could be in very bad shape.

    On the turn I would just check. If you believe he has A2 then you absolutely cannot bet here. You are 52% vs A2Bx but again, could be in much worse shape than that. You have to just call. If you had the NFD I would still just check-call.
    Alright, I feared as much. At least I don't have to immediately throw it away. The hand seems to be a good example, why hands like these should be folded pre. =P

    Quote:
    River is smart. I would have probably just checked but I think your bet is correct. You have deduced that he is likely counterfeit and you could be scooping here. If you were deeper you might have to just check.
    Yepp, I thought he is counterfeit with no real shot at the Hi so much here, I just have to bet. But there wasn't much left in our stacks anyways.
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-24-2017 , 06:13 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ZockenRobot

    On the flop vs A2Bx you are 36%. So this is a fold. You technically have the right odds vs his range but you are OOP and could be in very bad shape.
    Actually, I do run those equities on PPT, too. But I have trouble correctly processing the results. For simplicity, I will assume, the betting is finished on the street in question.

    So here, I tried kinda worst case scenario, assuming my opponent would only raise the turn with hands that have a decent chance to win the Hi.

    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
    65,640 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: 8 T 6 5
    Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
    Ah 4s 7s 5c44.88% 5,80252,5065945,892441
    A2 hh, A29J, A2TT, A27J, A29Q, A2JQ55.12% 12,45012,54059459,307441

    I interpret this as: Since it is a headsup pot, the times we chop, don't matter. So, if I compare the scoops, then I'm ~ 2,5:1 dog against this range and a potsized raise, offers me 1:2, which means, I should fold. Do I understand this correctly?

    However, since from my experience the players will often raise it, when they have the nutlo as the preflop aggressor, I take a look at the other extreme.

    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
    184,320 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: 8 T 6 5
    Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
    Ah 4s 7s 5c52.38% 16,785175,530016,9201,296
    A 2 [J,Q,K] !AA47.62% 8,6288,7900166,1041,296
    In which case, if again, I interpret these correctly, I am a little worse than a 2:1 favourite and my opponent has the odds to call a PSB.
    It's kinda weird spot with the stacksizes. After the raise there is so little left, that I don't think, either of us is going to fold any rivers. In which case, I should probably look to getin, against this range. And folding would be a tremendous error.

    Last edited by Caterina; 10-24-2017 at 06:42 AM. Reason: Reviewed first table with the narrowed preflop range
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-24-2017 , 10:41 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Caterina

    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
    65,640 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: 8 T 6 5
    Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
    Ah 4s 7s 5c44.88% 5,80252,5065945,892441
    A2 hh, A29J, A2TT, A27J, A29Q, A2JQ55.12% 12,45012,54059459,307441

    I interpret this as: Since it is a headsup pot, the times we chop, don't matter. So, if I compare the scoops, then I'm ~ 2,5:1 dog against this range and a potsized raise, offers me 1:2, which means, I should fold. Do I understand this correctly?
    65,640 trials (exhaustive)
    the 65,640 trials is the number of times the 'simulation' selected and dealt a hand that fit the parameters you specified(hero's hand, the villains range, the 4 card board)

    the exhaustive indicates it is not an approximation but rather it takes into account every possible outcome. it will say (randomized) when it uses an approximation(which it will do when the 'exhaustive' number becomes too large).

    pot equity 44.88%
    the result, the "pot equity" is an average of the results of the 65,640 trials.
    pot equity of 44.88% regardless of its constituent parts(scoops, splits of 50/50 and splits of 25/75) is how much of the final pot on average the hand you specified is worth at showdown when you average the results of all the possible showdowns.

    an example, when the showdown pot is $10 and Ah4s7s5c has 44.88% pot equity then Ah4s7s5c is worth $4.49 on average at showdown.
    if $4 was in the pot and villain went allin for $3, such that it would cost hero $3 to call and showdown, the pot would be $10, with 44.88% pot equity (hero's hand being worth $4.49) hero has a positive expectation (+ev) to call because $4.49 is obviously greater then $3.
    villain's expectation is also positive as villain's pot equity is even greater then hero's.

    with regard to the other figures(besides pot equity) given by the simulation, these are the number of trials that occurred, and its these numbers that permit the pot equity figure to be established.
    so hero scoops 5802 trials of 65640 trials or 8.8% of the time.
    villain's range scoops 12450 trials of 65640 trials or 18.98% of the time.
    5802+12450 /65640 = someone scoops 27.8% ott and consequently the pot is split 72.2% ott. since the ties(tiesHI and tiesLo are very small numbers relative to the number of trials, less then 1%) you can conclude that nearly all of the 72.2% are 50/50 splits.
    the proof is that when you scoop you are awarded 100% of the pot and when you split 50/50 you are awarded 50% of the pot, therefore if you scoop 8.8% and you split 50/50 72% then .088*1 +.72*.5 = .448 or hero averages being awarded 44.8% of the pot.

    ps. remember that pot equity is showdown equity. it requires that you get to showdown to realize that equity. the 'cost' to showdown is often greater then the bet currently in front of you. if you fold before showdown you don't realize that equity.



    a minor aside is that you wrote A2hh and not A2:hh. : =and.
    so A2hh indicates Ace two and the 2 cards of unspecified rank are both hearts(the Ace and the two the 4 suits are each possible if they aren't dead).
    A2:hh indicates Ace two and 2 hearts(that is 2 of the 4 cards are hearts and since in this instance th 2 can be a heart therefore 1 of the 2 unspecified cards need not be a heart).
    its a minor difference, especially here because the Ah is in hero's hand but it changes the composition(the number of possible combinations) of the specified hand.

    Last edited by ngFTW; 10-24-2017 at 10:52 AM. Reason: spelling, clarity(i did my best)
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-25-2017 , 11:36 AM
    Awesome, I love this forum, thank you.

    I asked PPT about a situation, where "the book says to fold it":
    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
    40 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: A K Q J
    Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
    Tc Kc 2c 2s38.75% 003100
    Th Ks 2h 3c61.25% 993100
    I assume, we always call, when the river is not a heart and always fold, when it is.

    According to raw equiites a fold would be worse than a call. Since with more than 33,33% equity, calling a potsized bet is +ev, while folding is not.

    In a real poker hand things aren't this certain and we will make mistakes on the river, but so will our opponents.

    Is there an error in my reasoning or is this not the clear fold that the books say it is?

    Is the problem here, that we are more likely to make mistakes on the river than our opponent, who can only incorrectly fold his hand?

    It always says, you can only win your money back, but what about "our" half of the existing pot?

    Last edited by Caterina; 10-25-2017 at 11:54 AM.
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote
    10-25-2017 , 02:52 PM
    That's one ****ty book.
    [Cash, Micro, PLO8] Marginal in two directions Quote

          
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