I want to adjust my play against a particular reg and players like him.

About this villain:
Generally speaking, he plays a TAG style game. However, I think, he overplays in a lot of spots, especially sets with no redraws on all kinds of boards.

Now, I might be wrong on this and he is doing things right, because apparently he's crushing the stake, but I feel, I'm way too often folding very high equity hands against him. And I do think, a lot of winnings are from players like me backing down and folding as much as 60% equity to his constant pressure.

We have quite some history and I checked "run it twice" just because I was so tired, of getting in against him with 55-65%, and him spiking a 2-scoop outer on the river.

I think, the following traits should be exploitable, please correct me, if I'm wrong:
- 3betting with any double suited hand that has an Ace and can make a low
- Raising out of position against 3+ limpers with any ABwX ss hand.
- pot, pot, pot or check/fold bet pattern. Nothing in between. He almost never calls and he almost never checks, no matter how the board changes. Most notably to me are: A2K on any HLL board, any set on any board and NFD + BDLD on HHL boards (he will even 3bet the flop with those)

This is an example hand, we played earlier today:



So, after the hand, I feel stupid and think, I played this really bad. I was so afraid of the nutstraight + flushdraw, that I didn't really think about a realistic range for him. Here are some equities I ran to correct this:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: A Q J

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Kc Th d [9,T,J,Q,K,A]	50.62%	192,337	213,613	208,827	0	0
KT, AA, QQ, JJ, AQ:ss, AJ:ss, QJ:ss	49.38%	177,560	177,560	208,827	43,720	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: A Q J 7

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Kc Th d [9,T,J,Q,K,A]	58.18%	222,821	259,217	228,973	0	0
KT, AA, QQ, JJ, AQ:ss, AJ:ss, QJ:ss	41.82%	111,810	111,810	228,973	68,878	0

My afterthoughts:
1) I don't think, he plays non-nutflushdraws like this. And I think, he plays a lot more suited Aces than suited Kings. So I should discount some (a lot?) of the possible flushdraws in the particular hand, because there was the As on the board.

2) I have a very vulnerable hand and can lose a lot, because I'm oop.
I still prefer c/c to a lead or a c/r.
If I'm leading, I have to reveal which turncards are bad for me.
If I c/r, he folds bluffs, flats the hands that are currently behind and getsin with the hands, that are destroying me. If I c/r and he flats, there is so many turns, where he can take away the pot from me or I have to getin really bad.

3) Turn: This is the spot, where I should c/r getin. Sometimes, I will be freerolled, but way more often than that, he's behind. c/r getin also removes the problem, that there is a ton of rivers, where I might incorrectly fold (like small spades for example). Then again, if I remind myself of point 1), then I maybe shouldn't fold spades/hearts, but paired boards.

4) So, I'm saying to myself: Stop backing down. Run the equities and getin, when you think you are ahead of his range. Don't let the "bad beats" discourage you. Things like that.

* Are there flaws in my approach to this situation?
* Is my perception correct, or is the villain doing the right thing? He might be thinking, he needs to protect his hand ?!
* How can I exploit the mistakes, I think, he's doing. (Overbluffing against his checking range, is one thing, I do)
* How can I combat his constant preflop 3betting? I started 4betting AK23ds and AAww, but that doesn't seem to be much/enough.
* Am I doing something wrong, that I am missing?

Wp. Raising the turn is certainly fine as well, but I think you gain a lot by having some straights in your check-calls here.

Thx, but how do I deal with the majority of scary rivers. Especially since villain almost never checks behind.
I don't really understand, what I gain by check/calling on the turn. Is it good for deception and making myself less bluffable?
Maybe, I look a lot like a spadedraw and thus a different villain might be more inclined to check behind spades?

Does it make defending correctly harder or easier if you have some straights in your range? IMO clearly easier.

It's a dynamic board which favors the IP player a lot so you need to make some sacrifices so that your river checks are not way too weak. It's not really a problem for you if he barrels a ton of rivers if your range is strong enough to take the heat.

Btw I think his river bet in this hand is way too thin and he probably has a sizing tell that you can exploit by having some c/r bluffs vs this particular sizing. If you don't have straights in your turn check-calls you can't c/r bluff to blanks either.

I see and I certainly want to use my "dry straights" for this rather than the monsterdraws that want to have 10 players all-in against them.

However, looking at my own game. I'm check/calling flop/turn/river with I think, almost my entire range. I thought, there should be some raises in there. And since this particular villain doesn't fold sets/NFDs before the river, it seems like a lot of missed value.

Well, it might not be in theory, but in practise, I'm likely overfolding. I really don't know what to do about it though. I'm not getting any information from his pot/pot/pot pattern.

Yes, this crossed my mind, too. I'm already keeping my eye on these new occasional halfpot bets.

I'm not sure, he can lay down a set under any circumstances though. I have certain hands in mind, where I would have turbomucked my set, if I was him. But maybe that only applies to flop/turn. He usually pots/repots with sets so there is often no proper river played.

One example:
I 3bet pre. Flop is A92. He pots into me, I raise, we getin and he shows 9987. (I had AA36).

Well, I think turn is the street where most of your raises should come against this villain. I don't think you miss a lot of value as he seems to be barreling way too much and betting river way too thin.

Stop overfolding? Does he bluff rivers or is it all value?

I think it's fair to say we are dealing with a rather weak player.

I think, he bluffs missed draws, almost always.
If also think, he kinda turns hands with a lot of showdownvalue into bluffs all the time or bets superthin for value, looks like the same thing to me.

One hand that stood out for me:
3 people limp, Reg raises pot from the sb, gets 4 calls:
Flop is AJ8 no flushdraw). Reg pots it, 3 folds, BB calls.
Turn is a T, puts a flushdraw on the board. Reg pots it, BB calls.
River is an offsuit 9. Reg pots it, BB calls. Reg shows AJww, BB wins with 789T, neither of them had the flushdraw.

If I was the BB, I would have folded at some point in the hand, thinking that my straight can't be good that often. And exactly this thinking, might be the problem. Because his range on these boards is so wide, bad straights are much better, than I'm assuming.

In short: It's rare to find him betting the river without some showdown value, because he folds the flop, if he doesn't hit an above average made hand or a strong draw.

If you think you're overfolding river too much oop then why not start betting the river on a board like in your first hand? Bet 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot and see how villain reacts. But also stop overfolding

Flop call seems bad by BB (there are several players behind even), otherwise standard. You are correct in that you shouldn't fold hands this strong against this villain. Again, absolutely atrocious river bet by villain. You print money just by calling even remotely correctly.

I am hoping you don't mean with Hero's actual hand, as that bet wouldn't make any sense. Yes, on certain runouts you need to bluff the way you would normally do. I would definitely not make any adjustment on that vs this villain, as you need to let him keep doing the thing he is clearly doing wrong (betting river when checking is clearly superior). Also note that the more you have bets on the river the weaker your checks will be, so it makes defending correctly harder.

I agree that no adjustment is necessary as long as you're not overfolding against this villain. But my assumption is that Hero is (since he said so), so his checks are super-weak on the river. In this particular hand he has under-repped it so seems like an ok bet to me (villain is just as likely to call with worse as he is to fold). As you said, a better solution is to keep your checks strong by river and not fold.

I am sorry, but I think you are not making a lot of sense.

• being under-repped is a bad reason to bet on the river
• by having leads on this river with a merged range (that is what it's going to be, if you think a straight is a good lead) you are preventing the villain from making his favorite mistake
• by having bets, you are weakening your checks. We seem to agree with this, but your conclusion on what to do about it is the opposite of what it should be

Instead, I think checking your whole range on this river (and most rivers!) is superior against this particular villain.

Thanks, both of you. The discussion really got me thinking how my river/turn ranges interact with each other and such. (I had to google what a "merged range" is, too).

Haven't really met this villain today, but another guy, who plays a similar style. I kept making all those "hero calls" and boy, was I winning . Opponent started checking behind rivers, after losing 4 BI though.

It was really surprising to see, how much stronger my average hand looks like on the river than what my opponent kept potting into me.

For whatever reason I looked at the results of the first hand again and realized villain has QQTx for a straight. When writing that the bet was way too thin I thought he had QQxx for a set. I think betting a straight is not too thin, but not mandatory.

So other than limping pre in CO with QQT4, I think villain's play was fine.

My point was that villain can't make a mistake if you're check/folding. Check/call>betting>check/fold against this particular villain. Villain only makes mistakes in the first 2 categories, so if you're uncomfortable calling 3 potted streets, why not try the next best option? But maybe no need now that Hero is not overfolding

I guess next we find out what Hero does now that villain has stopped making his favorite mistake.

Well, in the actual hand Hero didn't check-fold, he check-called. You suggested betting as an improvement and I responded to that.

Another strange conclusion. You understand what the best play is, but suggest to make the 2nd best play. Hero is not overfolding if he check-calls (and check-raises) with the correct hands. In order not to be overfolding, he doesn't need to start betting, he just needs to stop folding too much. Actually betting makes your checks more weak, for obvious reasons. If he is uncomfortable calling 3 potted streets, he needs to stop being uncomfortable. This cannot be impossible to understand.

I wouldn't bet my money on that, even if he reads this forum.

This is important information for me. I want to include things, he does well (valuebetting) into my own game, just like he took some elements of my game.

I met him this morning, but he didn't stay very long. So, I didn't really have the opportunity to play hands against him. The few I observed, I noticed that he bets a lot more 1/2 pot and 3/4 pot bets, often in spots, where I'd give him more bluffs than normal.

In general the average skill-level of 0.01/0.02 has gone up a lot in ~last two weeks. There is a lot more winning regs now. I think that's the reason, he doesn't play 8 tables for hours anymore. I kinda wonder, if he and the others read my posts here. Well, the feedback and help from this forum (most notably amok) has really been invaluable. Now I just need to learn, how to properly bluff and I'll be set for the next level, I think.

I was suggesting betting as an improvement to Hero's original post that he was folding too much to villain's constant pressure. Perhaps my first post wasn't clear. Definitely not suggesting betting is an improvement to check-calling, which I thought was obvious.

This was in response to Hero's last post that similar villain started checking back the river.

OK, so

Caterina: I overfold to his river bets.
Amok: Stop overfolding to his river bets.
Greybeard: Start betting river as a 2nd best option.

Perhaps a bit too much "out of the box" -thinking to my taste.

Similar villain? Similar villain.

First a little more interesting hand against this villain, where I took a different line thx to this thread. I'm not sure, if it was a good way to play it. Villain is the SB in this hand.

Flatting flop is pretty standard. Could also justify smallish raise/gii vs this guy. Folding would be a disaster.

Your turn logic needs rethinking.

If you do think his bet sizing means some kind of weak hand/air then yeah if you/he were deeper you could raise to protect your equity as you have no low draw. But this is still mostly bad and going to leave nasty river spots when villain calls with nut low and bombs river or when in fact he does have a flush. players that bet non nut flushes don't like to fold it either and i'd imagine at these stakes even more so.

You have put him allin on a board that you beat air but you are crushed against any of the hands that he represents by betting(any flush) and holding no low draw. Yikes :/
I'd rather risk a low card coming that may give opponent a low than be in the spot of only having boat outs to win scoop with 1 card to come.

And nononono regarding the Q blocker. I reckon many players that are thinking about blockers to determine a lines would be more profitable f they didn't know what they are at all.

Hmm. I'm actually folding here most of the time, because I can't see myself callling 3 barrels, with this hand. Since, I try to combat overfolding, I called here in position, hoping he wouldn't pot the turn.

I understand, what you are saying and it makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't play like this, against most players.

What I don't get: You recommend calling? Without a flush and without a lowdraw? Aside from boating up, which rivers would we call then, assuming our opponent is very likely to bet the river. (I'm not critisizing, just not understanding.)

While I can't be a 100% sure, I do think that his betsizing effectively takes any flush, any set and the nutlowdraw out of his range. I have seen him play pot with an overpair and the nutlodraw in a similar spot just some hands ago (He also called the raise-all-in and lost).
That would leave straightdraws, top two, TPTK, and complete air. With my raise, I wanted to move him off those, not a flush. He doesn't fold flushes (on non paired boards), he simply doesn't.

If you had this kind of read (and believe it is right), would this change your turn recommendation?

Maybe it wasn't clear, my mainreason was the betsizing and that I wished to end the hand right there. The heart just makes it even less likely that he does have a flush and if for some reason, he totally surprises me, I can sometimes boat up to still win.

I do think, my raise should have been smaller. I think, he's going to fold to a minraise here. I just didn't want to play any different than I would, if I actually had it.

I'm glad billy shares his views.

I'd also always flat this flop, but I hate raising more than folding. Villain is betting into 4 people anyway and our hand is very mediocre. Raise-GII is extremely ambitious.

I understand billy's view on turn play, it's not the best hand to GII with because our equity is so poor when called. However, it's better to have the Q blocker than not to have. I think GII is absolutely fine even with this hand if you think his sizing is a tell. I would never have another raise size with these stacks. Against "normal" villains I'd always fold this hand. You have many other strong hands in your range that you can continue with.

So, again a thumbs up from me to OP.

admittedly i'm not the best strategy guy so jut thought i'd take a punt.

Amok, u read situations very well.

Yeah, after writing my wall of text, I realized, I didn't thank you, billy. Couldn't edit anymore. I'm really happy about everyone that helps me out and shares his insights.

I just wish I could give something back.

Also a thumbsup from amok makes me very happy. =]

This villain doesn't scare me anymore. Aside from tells and the like, the most important lesson here was:
Don't fold to "scarecards" too much, when your opponent barrels a wide range. Seems obvious in hindsight, doesn't it? Well, I think, I was shown the nuts one too many times and just kinda gave up.
And then there is all the non obvious things. Like, calling the flop from my last hand. Both of you (and probably every other good player on this forum) would never fold the flop, while I somewhere in the past started to continue only with very strong hands. Food for thought for me.

THANK YOU.