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Capped Pre 8745ss Capped Pre 8745ss

03-25-2024 , 04:33 AM
4/8 with 1/2 Kil

8745ss in spades in bb, call a late position raise that ends up 3 bet and eventually capped (this doesn't happen often in the game but when it does usually the entire table calls because they see it as an opportunity to win a big pot). To me this makes hand ranges extremely wide because the person who called the bb in mid position with weak holdings usually comes along. I call.

I want to say it was atleast 7 ways to the flop...

Flop

10s6s3d (Pot: ~$140)

4 bets on flop, 1 fold.

Turn

10s6s3d2d (Pot: ~$230)

Couple all ins for less but 3 bets, 2 all ins

River

(Pot: ~$400+)

Without results, at these stakes with loose players, is this hand just an outright fold to one raise in the bb preflop because we eff have no low potential?

I am finding myself in these situations making nutted hands on flop/turn and "some" blockers consistently but not sure if its profitable in O8.
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03-25-2024 , 02:10 PM
If you were closing the action or virtually knew the pot wouldn't get 3 bet, I think you maybe could get away with a call if you play well postflop but being in there for 4 bets with this toilet hand is certainly a disaster, which is why folding pre is the prudent play.
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03-26-2024 , 03:18 AM
Largely disageee with the previous post.

Pre seems fine. Don't think Hero should ever really be folding flop. Hero needs like 7% equity to call both times (assuming 7 players), and can easily have 10%+. Post-flop isn't bad either.

Hero gains equity on this flop, my sim shows Hero with over 18% total equity.

Note: Card removal is pretty nice for Hero both pre and post.

Last edited by monikrazy; 03-26-2024 at 03:32 AM.
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03-26-2024 , 03:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Largely disageee with the previous post.

Pre seems fine. Don't think Hero should ever really be folding flop. Hero needs like 7% equity to call both times (assuming 7 players), and can easily have 10%+. Post-flop isn't bad either.

Hero gains equity on this flop, my sim shows Hero with over 18% total equity.

Note: Card removal is pretty nice for Hero both pre and post.
I put in the cards that I remember villians having into a cheap poker calculator and it showed me having approximately Hi: 12.78% win/47.14% tie/19.95% equity

One other player had A45 which obv has me crushed.
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03-26-2024 , 05:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Note: Card removal is pretty nice for Hero both pre and post.
To be clear when you say card removal you are speaking of on the flop I block many low cards, or that other players likely in the hand block many low cards as well?

Thanks
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03-26-2024 , 10:44 AM
but the cards you want to come, A23, are likely the cards they have. A 63x flop is good for your hand as well and postflop seems fine to me.
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03-26-2024 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hell2Heaven
To be clear when you say card removal you are speaking of on the flop I block many low cards, or that other players likely in the hand block many low cards as well?



Thanks
Card removal is a concept allowing players to better estimate true probabilities based on other player ranges.

For example, in NL hold'em cash, the odds of a player late to act being dealt a good hand increases with every player that open folds. Certainly no one is folding AA.

Which is to say, even though middle cards are not desireable in lo8, on this type of action, we should expect other players to hold a lot of the strongest low and broadway cards in hand all ready, increasing the chances of our hand connecting with the board, and the likely +ev of our hand.

Going back to the hand itself, if we assume 3-4 aces are accounted for, we will frequently have increased chances of hitting other straight outs and winning a portion of the pot by river, even if the 7 hi straight is not nutted. With 52 cards in deck , 24 cards held by other 6 players, Hero holding 4 of our own, 3 on flop, that leaves 21 unknown cards in deck. So card removal really can be useful in a lot of situations and make it easier to assess the profitability of a given action.

In this hand, card removal is more useful pre-flop than post, as massive multiway pots are always messy to analyze. But with this hand, I expect Hero should still generally see the turn, even if action is capped.

But let me give an example of how it could be used post.

Let's give the 4 players who are willing to see the turn a range of A2xx, A2xx, A2xx and a 4th player who is complete fish and seeing turn with 100% of his range. Hero would be a commanding 26.7% equity favorite among the 5 players in that scenario.

Raw equity isn't the only variable going into our flop decision process, but it is a reasonable indication that seeing a turn is most likely correct.

Last edited by monikrazy; 03-26-2024 at 03:49 PM.
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03-26-2024 , 05:39 PM
Appreciate the detailed response, I know for a fact that A2xx is in maybe one or two hands in this particular game but I will incorporate this thinking when I’m in multi-way pots.

The river was a diamond and A45dd got 3/4ths
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