Quote:
Originally Posted by Hell2Heaven
To be clear when you say card removal you are speaking of on the flop I block many low cards, or that other players likely in the hand block many low cards as well?
Thanks
Card removal is a concept allowing players to better estimate true probabilities based on other player ranges.
For example, in NL hold'em cash, the odds of a player late to act being dealt a good hand increases with every player that open folds. Certainly no one is folding AA.
Which is to say, even though middle cards are not desireable in lo8, on this type of action, we should expect other players to hold a lot of the strongest low and broadway cards in hand all ready, increasing the chances of our hand connecting with the board, and the likely +ev of our hand.
Going back to the hand itself, if we assume 3-4 aces are accounted for, we will frequently have increased chances of hitting other straight outs and winning a portion of the pot by river, even if the 7 hi straight is not nutted. With 52 cards in deck , 24 cards held by other 6 players, Hero holding 4 of our own, 3 on flop, that leaves 21 unknown cards in deck. So card removal really can be useful in a lot of situations and make it easier to assess the profitability of a given action.
In this hand, card removal is more useful pre-flop than post, as massive multiway pots are always messy to analyze. But with this hand, I expect Hero should still generally see the turn, even if action is capped.
But let me give an example of how it could be used post.
Let's give the 4 players who are willing to see the turn a range of A2xx, A2xx, A2xx and a 4th player who is complete fish and seeing turn with 100% of his range. Hero would be a commanding 26.7% equity favorite among the 5 players in that scenario.
Raw equity isn't the only variable going into our flop decision process, but it is a reasonable indication that seeing a turn is most likely correct.
Last edited by monikrazy; 03-26-2024 at 03:49 PM.