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Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble

04-29-2018 , 10:19 AM
A hand occurred yesterday that I've been thinking about. I'm more of a cash game than a tournament player and still struggle a little bit understanding how much I should be willing to risk a substantial portion of my chips in this kind of spot. And I'm especially inexperienced when it comes to bounty tournaments.

I don't remember the specifics as well as I would like but assume the following:
$20 + $2 NLO8 tournament with a $5 bounty prize for each KO
136 players, 29 remaining, 21 paid
Pay out structure that gives barely over buyin back for first few cashes and awards $300 at top (i.e., relatively top heavy)
Our stack (15.5k) is situated roughly 20/29, with a handful of stacks very short.

7 handed table, UTG+2 short stack open shoves 8.9k at 1k/2k. Folds to us in the SB and we have Ac2hJhTh. BB has 19k.

Hero..?

Against all A2 hands, our equity is 51.14%. Against all AA hands, our equity is 41.5%. Against all A35 hands, our equity is 56.28%.

We require 39.9% equity for a call/shove (assuming BB folds) to be +chipEV.

My gut feeling is that we can't fold w/ this many players away from the $ in a spot we are guaranteed to be +chipEV by a few percent against villain's range. If you agree, is there any point at which the # of remaining players makes it a fold assuming losing the hand would place us among the shortest stacks?

Last edited by karamazonk; 04-29-2018 at 10:28 AM.
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote
04-29-2018 , 05:46 PM
Looks like a standard spot to go all-in
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote
04-30-2018 , 02:09 AM
IMHO
1. Reshove. Your hand have 50% vs 15% range, short stack should push at least 15%. And you have some additional value in KO besides dead money in the pot. http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...5%25&s=generic
2. I don't know ICM calculators fo 08. In some cases I use Holdem ICM calculators ex icmizer (free for small number of calculation per day), and try to realize how % holdem ranges could be translated to O8.
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote
04-30-2018 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Looks like a standard spot to go all-in
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fold&Forget
IMHO
1. Reshove. Your hand have 50% vs 15% range, short stack should push at least 15%. And you have some additional value in KO besides dead money in the pot. http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...5%25&s=generic
2. I don't know ICM calculators fo 08. In some cases I use Holdem ICM calculators ex icmizer (free for small number of calculation per day), and try to realize how % holdem ranges could be translated to O8.
Thanks for the thoughts, guys. I did end up reshoving, BB folded, and I ended up in a pretty solid equity spot (I can't remember villain's hand, but I ran the #s and think I was a 56% equity favorite). I guess it's more of a tournament/ICM question than anything else as to whether it's worth it to be risking a substantial portion of our stack in this near-bubble dynamic. Given we're still far away enough from the actual bubble and a mincash doesn't mean particularly much anyways, plus we stand to gain a bounty if we bust the player, it's probably a very easy decision to just reshove. I haven't really fooled around with icmizer type resources but maybe I'll check 'em out, thanks!
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote
05-03-2018 , 06:30 PM
Remember that it's not like holdem where 55% means that you lose 45% of the time - for example in the 50/50 equity sim posted by F&F you get scooped only 30% or so of the time
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote
05-04-2018 , 01:21 PM
This would be a +EV jam even without the bounty
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote
05-09-2018 , 12:02 PM
I have been grappling with a number of these types of situations recently myself. I think it depends on how important it is to give yourself the best likelihood of a min cash versus going truly deep in the $.

From an overall standpoint I think this is a reshove for the reasons mentioned above. But I have folded some similar close EV scenarios recently to ensure I’m making the money.
Bovada  NLO8 Bounty Tournament Nearing Bubble Quote

      
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