Hey everyone, first time posting on 2P2. Usually I play Hold’ em, have done a lot of solver work, etc. but the cardroom in Texas I play at has dealers choice where people pick a lot of 5 card Hi-lo so I’ve also read the first two volumes of Scoop! by Greg Vail. What does everybody think of this spot?

Blind structure is 1/2 with a $10 straddle and we’re 600 effective 7 handed.

Hero opens UTG to 30 with Ad8d5s4s2c.
Main Villain on BU who is a nit in Hold’em but bad at hi-lo calls, straddle calls.

Flop(95): Jd7d7h
Hero bets 30
BU calls, straddle folds
My logic behind betting small is that on paired flops it’s harder for people to have anything, and difficult to continue unless they have trips. My nut flush draw means I have equity to improve when called even if they have trips, and I also gain additional playability if I turn a straight draw or a low draw.

Turn(155): 6c
Hero checks, BU bets 75, hero calls
I checked because I wanted to keep the pot small when I’m not drawing to the nuts for the high. Also, even though I have the nut flush draw plus an open-ender and the nut low draw, by betting the BU could raise and force me to fold a ton of equity. Same thing if I check-raise and get jammed on. If BU just has a J then he’s unlikely to bet turn, and I can just bluff him on many different rivers. Obviously I can’t fold to the turn bet, so I called

River(305): 7c
Hero tanks and donk bets 215.

I think that a 7 is one of the best possible cards in the deck for my range besides an A. When villain bets turn, the value range that he represents is mostly trips or a full house like JJ or J7. I think that an overpair or a J is sometimes going to bet the turn if they have some kind of draw to go with it. His turn bluffs are going to be flush draws and straight draws.
A 7 vastly decreases the number of trips and boats in his range since now there’s only one 7 left in the deck, meaning that Villain is more likely to be weighted towards air or just a J, maybe KK or QQ. Also, since Hero was the preflop raiser I’m much more likely than he is to have AA. On the river, a 7 improves the AA hands in my range to virtually the nuts unless it’s one of the rare times he has a 7 or JJ. I also have the Ad, so even through I block his busted flush draws, I also block him from having a hand like bad Aces with the nut diamond draw which didn’t 3bet preflop because it didn’t have a low component, which then bets turn with its nut flush draw.

Therefore, I decided to lead river to try and put his Jx, QQ and KK hands in a tough spot. The hands I’m repping for value are AA, maybe KK, and quads. I don’t think I credibly rep JJ, that hand is mostly going to bet turn, although I would maybe check it like 10% of the time. I think AA is totally credible though since it’s likely I would bet the flop small for thin value, check turn to pot control, and then donk river when the card improves my range. Same thing if I have a 7 with no backup.

Thoughts?

I dislike flop bet. Maybe a small cbet with entire range is profitable, but with zero high cards, i much prefer check evaluate. When hero has 5 low cards villains are much more likely to connect with the board, and for only 30% should be calling quite wide. Hero can still delay cbet and rep big pairs on later steets. Hero has few 7x and jjxxx in opening range. If hero checks, we may opt to fold to even smaller bets, as we run into freeroll and counterfeit situations a lot - we should play cautiously.

Xc the turn is fine.

As played, i don't hate a river bet, but i think we probably want to go smaller, to limit losses when villain calls or raises. A bet in the 100-140 range could be much more efficient. Large bet also doesn't really look like it wants a caller, and villain may not have many value hands that can call when hero does have aaxx or 7x.

Don't have a great feel for this player based on op, but its not clear if this is a good spot to bluff anyway.

I don't think you're repping AA with this river sizing. you're polarized on a 7 or a bluff. Vilain has more 7 then you might think. You can choose a smaller sizing to bluff river.
It seems to me that you're overbluffing river in this spot.

I think it's a good line, turn check is standard. I personally like the flop small bet and river donk but it only works if you do actually bet the same with AA.