10/5/5 Mississippi
8 handed

SB calls, BB folds, MP calls, LJ calls 10 and is all-in, I (950) raise in HJ to 60 with A24QJ, fold, fold, MP(1200) calls.

(120-35)
T43
MP checks, I bet 100, he calls

(355)
A
MP checks, I check

(355)
7
MP checks...

1)How much would you bet?

I'm quite confident he doesn't have a better low because I think he's betting them very frequently.
I also think he's often betting a flush river.

I am maybe quartering him, he may have a set, I'm not sure about the sizing, 60-70% pot?

kinda interesting

i think given he doesn't have wheels often enough means you should size down.

i think you want to target the part of his range that missed heart flushes, has A2x, some aces up+, and has to make a crying call here.

i'd be looking at 50% or less, myself, but i don't necessarily think i have a great bet-sizing strategy here.

I suppose you are not asking from a theoretical point of view. Given where we are in our range I'm not sure if it's a bet even. Exploitively I think betting small (third pot?) is good.

hmm you don't like betting medium/medium here OTR? or am i wrong and we're lower in range than it seems? what if we have say A26 instead of A24?

if i were to bet i think i like betting 25-33% for sure. i mentioned 50% above but that certainly feels like too much in retrospect. the hands i wanna target just can't call a half pot bet that often. whereas live deuce and aces up probably feel obligated to call fairly frequently i think.

I'm not sure. Maybe I'm just overly conservative betting for value OTR IP in general, but theoretically our river IP bets should be polarized. Of course, it's not so clear-cut in split-pot games.

In theory, opponent should have some traps on the river which I don't think he has.

I don't understand why you would want a live deuce to call a small bet. Getting him to fold is better.

Are aces up with no low really paying a small bet river?
I don't think so

Weird spot, read seems a little unreliable, but with only 3 combos of better lows, betting still seems fine. Given your read i think 50 - 60% is ok, we don't reallly want to let villain off too cheap when he gets a quarter.

it would be targeting the part of villain's range which includes the subset of hands that i listed, not any one specific hand.

i don't really care about folding out the one specific hand that we only make 3 quarters from. FWIW potting definitely folds out that hand. but betting say quarter pot makes money off of that, in addition to the other hands listed. at least that's the idea. like oh say idk maybe AT27 calls there. and there's some added value of you not showing down the hand. just a few factors to consider if we do want to make a bet.

now, whether the humans you play against actually will call these hands, that's certainly up to debate.

i'll also add that i don't know if a river bet is right or wrong. but if i had to choose between playing exploitatively or making the theoretically best play i'd choose the latter.

Agree

You don't have to choose, you need to know the theory and adjust by making proper exploits.

Imo, river is a clear bet given the action but I don't like betting under half pot in case I quarter him.
I might be wrong obviously.

+1.

Are bet sizing 50-60% acceptable for most river spots and is this a bet/call scenario assuming villain doesn't c/r Pot on river?

Of course you are right. If the pot was 400 and you bet 200 then villain calls and gets 200 back

You're still making an extra $100 vs checking it back, right?

I think this is a very opponent dependent situation...the other day I flopped a straight flush out of the BB (unraised pot) on a 568 board...I had 79, no low.

Checked three times to villain (turn and river were blanks), who bet each time. On river I reshoved allin, he called and showed me the Ace high flush with no low - a shocking scoop, and sent villain screaming into the night. BTW, I have probably the tightest image at the table.

I guess my point is that people slow play good hands A LOT in PLO8...doesn't mean you can't bet, but betting here is really thin. And the extra money you gain is probably more than offset by all the times you need to fold when c/r.