9 handed $0.50/$1 PLO8
100BB effective stacks

Hero in cutoff ATKJ
Folds to hero who pots 3.5BB - to steal blinds
Btn folds
SB solid winning reg calls
BB fish calls

FLOP - 10.5BB - 962
SB pots
BB calls
Hero calls - nut flush draw

TURN - 42BB - 962Q
SB pots
BB folds
Hero calls - nut flush draw and oesd

RIVER - 123BB - 962Q3
SB checks
Hero with air and 44BB remaining in stack ... ?

Put SB on similar hand with missed draws? Wouldn't SB bet 2pr+ with any low here? Seems highly unlikely SB is trapping; hero's just been a calling station to this point.

BUT hero has very little show down value with AK high and no low. So any bet would be a pure bluff.

To bet or not to bet?

Or is the answer simply: does SB fold >~35% of time?

Channeling Phil Galfond : this is the worst hand to bluff here since we block all the draws that missed. However, we have no showdown value so we should bluff.

You misplayed this hand but regardless, if this is low stakes plo8 and fish we are dealing with, shoving our ENTIRE range here would be profitable.

His range is extremely A3 heavy as played with many combos just check folding after bricking low. But your hand has garbage removal and I assure you this play would be burning money against decent regs.

I assume you mean stacking off bluffing ... and that's just what happened.

I try to play a low variance game. To that end, just give up checking fits. I just wasn't sure if bluffing here is a viable, much better, or just plain silly option.

What's a better line?

Yeah stacking off bluffing is what I meant.

I’m limp calling pre first of all. Yeah stealing blinds is important, but bloating pots with this type of hand is gonna be losing money. Especially 3.5xing, you want to be more selective, if you were 2xing or 2.5 I think raising this hand would be alright. It’s just a 3 bet puts 24 bb in pot pre and we are with a mediocre o8 hand. Me personally, unless it’s a tournament with icm considerations, I never raise a hand that can’t call or 4 bet, equities are too close in o8 to be raise folding in my opinion. So 3.5x folding from cutoff shouldn’t be in the picture.

Flop is only a call because it is 3 way and we can still make money against lower flushes even when low comes in. 2 way, it’s a fold, no need to play for half the pot.

Turn is very very close and im too lazy to do the math to see if calling is alright. This is also opponent dependent because if it’s an opponent that barrels off all his a3x and not enough value, we aren’t getting paid enough when we get there anyway. 8 rivers and some flush outs are chops anyway with low hands.

I’m curious if you got the fold. If so, it is extremely likely that your opponent is barreling naked a3x combos which is definitely exploitable if you encounter him frequently

Thanks for all the info!

Yes, I overvalue high only hands in O8. And not bloating the pot pre makes complete sense. And I hate calling a 3 bet pre with this type of hand and now even bigger pot.

Flop call with 2 opponents is standard, as stated.

Turn

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

986,480 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 962Q

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AdTdKhJc	40.08%	297,568	461,030	39,626	0	0
20%	59.92%	485,824	485,824	39,626	375,517	0

Yes, I hated the one-way nature of the draws. Still I'm getting 2:1 on my $.

River - I stack bluffed and got insta-called by a bottom set ... deuces ... and #2 low: A225

There certainly are different valid pre-flop strategies. For me, there is no limping (and if there were, CO wouldn't be the first position to implement it). If you are a simple guy like me, it's either pot open or fold. I think this hand is close, for reasons Bed states: you need to fold to 3-bets.

I think flop peel is OK, although it's close. Turn is not close, it's an obvious call.

>~35% ??????


if he calls, and as a pure bluff you lose 100% when he calls, you lose 44bb.
if he folds, you've stolen the pot, and so you win the 123 and if we call rake 3, you win 120.

is 35% really the breakeven point of this situation?
does 120 *.35 = 44*.65
or written another way, does 120*.35 + (-44)*.65 =0

no.
42 does not = 28.6 or 13.4 does not = 0

So I have to divide 44 into 164, not 120.

I thought of it as risking 44 to win 120, where the quotient is approximately a third.

If you work it in reverse, (simplify to risking 40bb to get 120bb), then if he folds 3 times out of 4 you break even.

That's an interesting comment because this hand is all about variance. You never really had an advantage and one could argue you were flipping coins at almost every point in the hand, with the pot getting bigger and bigger all the while. You raised the max preflop and still the SB didn't give a crap about your initiative and put you right back on your heels into passive mode, trying to figure out if you were near the borderline. I suppose the flop is probably a call but folding wouldn't be terrible either, especially if your objective is low variance. It's not a big winner though since one of the likely scenarios is going to be folding your equity on the turn, or hitting your hand and chopping the pot with anyone willing to put more money in at that point (in other words, very low implied odds.)

This. Hero makes high variance choices both pre-flop and flop, then plays turn and river well.