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Originally Posted by JWorth
just won the $22 PLO8 on stars...
Congratulations! Sweet!
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Comments on the first hand are welcome.
Looks like you had some bad luck. However, it might be insightful for you to look at the list of unpaired boards that that do not enable a straight that I put up in response to another recent post. It’s post #14 in this thread:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/44...ix-max-534132/
There is only one five card unpaired board that has 35Q in it (358QK). What that means is there has to be exactly an 8 and a K on the last two cards for the final board to not enable a straight. Thus after this 35Q flop, unless the turn/river are exactly an eight and a king, or unless the board pairs, a straight will be possible on the river.
Looking at your JT55 hand, the board will pair on the turn or river
7*6/2+7*38+6*8+3*2=341 times out of 990.
And the turn and river will be an eight and a king 4*4=16 times.
Thus a straight will be possible on the river 990-341-16=633 times out of 990.
It’s roughly two to one, from Hero’s perspective, a straight will be possible on the river. Hero will make some, 48, of those straights, with ace+king, king+nine, and nine plus eight.
There are thus 990-341-16-48=585 out of 990 running two cards Hero cannot like much. (that’s roughly three out of five).
Overall, after this flop, it’s about three to two that Hero won’t like the turn and river much (because a straight will be possible for an opponent). And even on some of the boards Hero thinks he might like, if an opponent already has a higher set, Hero is in big trouble.
Of course, just because a straight will probably be possible by the river if the board doesn’t pair doesn’t mean an opponent will necessarily have the straight.
All things considered, when UTG bets the pot and CO calls, the situation looks scary for Hero.
You’re the one who won the tournament, not me; take my advice with a grain of salt, but since you asked, three things. (1) I don’t like playing this hand from the small blind. I hate small pairs in starting hands, the hand has no chance for low, and the odds you seem to be getting are very deceptive. And you’re out of position in the small blind. I don’t think the half price you’re paying to see the flop is a bargain. (2) If you do play the hand, I like directly betting this flop rather than going for the check-raise. Yes, you probably have the best flop fit at the table, but it’s a disaster if you don’t, and there’s a fair chance an opponent has you dominated (with a higher set). (3) If you do decide to go for a check-raise, once UTG bets the pot and CO calls, consider rethinking your original strategy.
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After that one, it was just me winning 60% of hands or something ridic.
Again, congratulations! Thanks for sharing.
Buzz