Hi all,

New to this game (big o), trying it out for a change of pace. Tight rec min-raises my $15 straddle and hero min 3! AsKcTsTd2s to $60, call.

Flop ($120): 5-6-8ddh. X, hero $80, call.

Turn ($280): 4c. X, hero $120, V CRAI (has hero covered). $300 more to call.

Thanks,
DT

I'm also new to Big O so take this with a grain of salt.

If I added everything up correctly (no promises), our expected pot share if we call will be:

EV = $0*p(we get counterfeit + scooped) + $280*p(we get quartered) + $560*p(chop) + $840*p(we three-quarter him) + $1120*p(we scoop)

obviously the five probabilities have to add up to 1. And we want this to be at least $300 for us to call.

So what numbers do we assign to these probabilities? We could assign ranges to estimate this but here's my guess based 100% on gut feeling:

p(we get counterfeit + scooped): I'll say roughly 14% (three aces/deuces or 6/43, but this is conservative since the other guy likely has some)
p(we three-quarter): unlikely since he's probably not doing this with a naked A2. I'll say 5%.
p(we scoop): also very unlikely (I'll say 1%)
p(we get quartered): significant. with five cards there are a ton of A2+straight possibilities. we have 80% left and I'll assign 60% to this
p(chop): i.e., we win low, he wins high. also significant. he could have stuff like A3+a straight. I'll assign the remaining 20% to this.

Given these guesses (feel free to pick your own numbers) I get an EV of $333 when we call, i.e., greater than $300, so somewhat profitable but it depends strongly on your guesses of these probabilities. Maybe others with more experience could better estimate based on player tendencies how often we chop/get quartered/whatever here.

Preflop a "min reraise" is not a thing you should ever do. Turn, appears SPR is around 1.7? Your sizing is really bad here I think

So pot turn? Pot pre I assume? I had only played fixed limit up until now so I think it was an engrained habit.

Pot or flat pre, I think I like flatting more. Post-flop you are playing completely without a plan. I think you should check a street, but as played obvious getin.

As played call; dislike sizing on the flop. Think this is a good board to cbet dmall o4 check.

If we bet turn, pot.

Naked A2 sucks balls, call pre, ck flop and get to showdown as cheap as you can unless you nail a T. You're getting quartered here so often with very little chance of scooping. Don't play big pots with one-way hands.

think i'd have a really hard time not potting pre HUHU.

on this flop i do think i'd wanna check here or bet small, typically. your min-3b raising range should include a wider range, i would think, if you're gonna go with that strategy. and if you're on the wider side, you can't really just bet big here and rep that you clobbered the flop, as much as you would like to.

i'd check flop, i think. no relevant suit blockers, and having a decent A2/overpair type hand is a nice thing to add to your check/protect range.

but as played to turn yeah not much choice but to bet/call.

check flop because if you don't check some flopped nut low hands, what does that say about your hand when you do check 3-low flops?