6 handed 5/5

5 ways limp pot, I'm in SB with AJ957

(25)
J97r
Xxxxx

(25)
J
Xx, UTG bet 20, fold, fold, I have 800 and he covers. I raise to 70, he repot to 235. I call.

He's not 3 betting any J9, so he has always J9 and overs.

(495)
A

It's a better card for him but I don't think he will try to get me off a chop with J9.

I'm not leading river as a bluff because he often has an A.

In theory, I should check but in game, maybe leading very small is the best option.

What would you do on the river?

Do you have any c/r-bluffs OTT? If not (and I'm pretty sure not), call. If you can't bluff, you can't raise for value. If you think he'll always call you down with weaker hands, I understand c/r as an exploit, though I'd just raise pot and pot river in this case. Betting turn is the normal play of course.

Yes, lead 1/3 OTR.

I would lead out on turn. This board is better for the blinds than the limpers. I would bet 15 to get action from worse boats and some AQJ type hands. As played I would think we should mix river. This ace is much better for him and I expect him to bomb with J9 to push us off the chop so I lean check.

I don't get why you wouldn't want to put more action in here on every street. On the turn you have the nuts, along with the Ace overcard redraw. On the river you have the second nuts, and if you were sure he had J9 on the turn, you only lose if he has AAJ9x, all cards you have blockers for, so he has to have all the available aces and all the available jacks, which also means he just limped preflop with AA and that none of the other players had an ace.

I know this is a game of making big hands, but do you really need to be this in fear of the nuts? Why is the river Ace a better card for villain? And why would you need to say you're not betting the second nuts as a bluff; of course you're not doing that.

I can raise bluff with 97 but I think I wouldn't have in this exact hand.

If villain also has J9 (which he should to jam the turn in this spot) we are freerolled by any overcards he has. Villain limped UTG and hero completed the SB - villain's range is much more likely to contain an Ace than hero's.

That said I've played a bit in this game and a lot of the regs are really bad preflop and there's some chance we have the only nuts on the turn, I'd just shrug get it in.

I think it’s important to note this is 5-5 so hero just checked his option.

Yeah, I get that his range is more likely to have an ace than ours, but we actually have an ace and only fear him having both of the remaining aces.

And that means we have the A free roll ourselves if he doesn't happen to have one. He only has the advantage on the turn if he has two of the A, K, Q cards, and then it's only a very slight edge - 3 outs if he has AK or AQ.

On the turn, I'm an underdog when he 3bet because I assume he has 2 overs with his J9.
On the river, I know I have the best hand or I'm chopping but will I get called if I lead? If I lead my hand is transparent.
A is a better card on the river for his range than mine because he vpip utg and I'm in the SB.

I don't think it's that bad even in theory to block bet this river and not sure how concerned you should be about it anyway. Maybe 1/3 pot is too big, you can just go 1/5 pot and get called every time, maybe even get bluff raised once in a while and if you check they always check back J9. AA is irrelevant (as it seems everyone understands), if he has it (AAJ9x) he has it.

really neat thread

i mean, i woulda slammed it in OTT thinking i had the ace over and wouldn't have thought anything of it lol

thanks, 2p2!

I agree with Kisada. This hand got more interesting the more I read it!

What would you be doing (should be doing?) if the river was K,Q,T instead of the A? Are you now afraid that your hand was counterfeited and he's got the bigger boat? Always checking? Would you ever bluff the river when any over card hits?

Kinda why I like to GII on the turn. Yes, worst case scenario is you are on the bad side of the freeroll (he's got at least 2 overcards to your 1), but if I have no bluffs on the river and I have an opportunity to be on the good side of the freeroll, might as well put the money in right there.

As played, I donk out as much as I think will get called. Some players that's a bigger bet that looks like I'm stealing a chop. Other cases, some smaller value that I'm not folding to a raise.

Are you sure GII is better than for example flatting and betting on nut changing cards though? To me it's clearly not, assuming villain is a typical straight-forward player. I also wouldn't re-raise many hands as villain, but I assume he is re-raising many of his nuts. Like AJ9 I'd always flat, probably even if Hero has no bluffs. KJ9 or QJ9 has even more incentive to just flat. Maybe two over cards should re-raise for value, three for sure.

You seem to see the tough spots on the river as a problem, I see them as an opportunity to outplay my opponent.

I'm not sure that GII on the turn is better than flatting. I know that, with my current skill level against this opponent, whom I presume to be "average 5/5 bigO player", I can't see myself bluffing the river, and can see myself making a bad fold to a river bet from them on a K or Q river, instead of the A (I'm probably check calling the T).

If I'm likely to make a mistake on the river by flatting the turn, then I'm better off GII on the turn. That doesn't make it the optimal play, but more of a mistake minimizing play.

I probably should have a good overcard bluffing range with 15 nut changing cards coming, but since I don't, I can't see how getting it in with the nuts on the turn is ever bad.

How do you outplay your opponent if you don't have a read on that opponent other than "they aren't betting any J9, just J9 and overs" and that they limped PF UTG. Reads I like are:
- Do they ever limp ragged AA in this game?
- Do they always limp hi-only hands?
- Are they competent enough to bluff the river, or do they play their hands face-up in big pots (like a small blocker bet when a nut-changing card comes and they don't have the nuts anymore)?

It sounds like you are slightly missing the point. If the river is an overcard that they hit, would you rather be all-in or not? If the river is an overcard that they don't hit, would you rather be all-in or not? If the river is not an overcard, it clearly doesn't matter whether you are all-in or not, assuming he always has J9 (which I think everyone agrees with?).

Yes, it's nice to have reads, but you don't necessarily need them to outplay someone.

You've mentioned that you'd be block betting the river in your earlier posts. Is that your solution here: always call the 3! on the turn with this hand (never 4!), and always block bet the A on the river? If so, are you betting any other card on the river, or checking every other river back? If checking every other river, are you folding to any bet when a K, Q or T comes?

With this exact hand, yes. I see no value in ripping it in, assuming the reads are villain always has J9 with at least one overcard. I do agree with OP that the A is worse card for Hero's range, but I'd still block bet it with this hand.

I assume in the first sentence the word "back" is accidental. Hero is OOP.

Consider what I could possibly mean with "If the river is an overcard that they hit, would you rather be all-in or not? If the river is an overcard that they don't hit, would you rather be all-in or not?" and you have your answer.

I'm never on the good side of the freeroll. 4 betting turn is a mistake.