8/16 Big O w/half kill
kill is not on

We're on the button with A2A5Q

This game has been very loose passive - many recs. I consider myself a rec who takes the game very seriously.

Pre-flop action
One mid position limp, I raise, BB call, mid position call

3-way to a flop of
7K4

Check, Check, I bet, Call, Call - All very standard so far

Turn is
9

Board is reading:
4K79

Check, Check, I bet, BB calls and now Mid Position Raises

So, I have a couple thoughts:
1.Mid positions most likely hand is a set of Kings. He sees a non threatening, non low card come on turn and decides to raise right here

2. The Big Blind will likely call if I flat and he could find a fold if I 3 bet, I think i'd like to keep him in as both opponents are likely to pay one bet on the river if I hit.

So what's your play - 3 bet this check raise or flat and keep the BB in?
All thoughts are appreciated.

Raise

We don't care that much about keeping in a 3rd player, if he has the nut lo draw we prefer charging, plus we don't have a great lo if we spike top set

Implied odds on the river can be a factor but with such a premium holding raising is normally correct

lol what? If we make top set we have the 2nd nut low. That's kinda the definition of a great low.

I just raise, 3rd guy is calling a lot anyway and our hand is favorite against his range by a lot probably.

What are stack sizes?Unless you are somehow super deep over 200 bb on turn i would

just jam turn.

Curious as to where you were playing limit 8/16 Big O...?

I think this is likely a limit game, so the stack sizes are likely irrelevant here.

raise

If the assumptions of the OP are correct you should just call. You're not a favorite if it gets head up.

I agree.

If you just think about how many of the remaining cards in the deck give you a flush or a low, it seems like you're way ahead here. But consider this:
• There are only 6 certain scoop cards: the high flush cards that don't pair the board (T, J, Q).
• There are 4 flush cards that pair the board, and if you're up against a set, those may actually cost you an extra bet if you choose to pay off on the river (reverse implied odds).
• Of the 15 cards that give you the nut low, 8 of them don't make you a flush and so will only be good for 50% of the pot at best.
• One of your opponents could have A2, in which case your 7 nut-nut outs will only be good for 75%, and your 8 nut-low-only outs will only be good for 25%.
• If your Ace gets counterfeited or if your deuce gets counterfeited with a heart, you'll make the nut high and the second-nut low, but it's hard to say whether this will get you 100% of the pot or only 75% or 50%.
• If your deuce gets counterfeited with a non-heart, you'll make the second-nut low, but it's hard to say whether this will get you 50% of the pot or only 25% or 0%.
• In rare circumstances, your nut low will tie with not one but both your opponents, lowering your equity even further.

Do you have enough equity to raise if you know with certainty that both opponents will call? Yes, you do. But if you believe a reraise will get the big blind to fold some of the time, then reraising is a mistake. Worst-case scenario: the big blind folds, and the MP player caps it with his set of Kings. You've now put in three big bets heads-up as the underdog.

Getting 75% of 3 extra big bets is a lot of big bets. I do agree accidentally getting this heads up wouldn't be fun, but it's not the worst thing in the world. Are we "sure" that the mid position has a set? Say he has k9 and a 4 or 7 gets us there.

It's difficult to calculate our equity exactly because (1) we don't know what our opponents have and (2) we don't know what they'll do in response to our reraise.

I agree that the MP player could have top two plus a combo draw of some kind (straight plus non-nut flush, or non-nut flush plus low). That means that when the board pairs with a flush card (4 ugly outs), we're sort of forced to call off just in case he didn't make a boat. Let's say we're right 10% of the time: our winnings are offset by the 90% of the time we're wrong and lose an extra bet on the river.

I took the OP's scenario and I assumed 4 things:
1. MP player has a set of Kings.
2. BB will find a fold when Hero reraises the turn.
3. Hero is up against another A2 about a third of the time (this is especially difficult to estimate as the OP didn't say how many players were dealt in).
4. When Hero's nut-low draw gets counterfeited (5 outs), he will still win the low about a third of the time, he will chop the low about a third of the time, and he will lose the low about a third of the time.

Based on these assumptions, I calculate Hero's equity on the turn as ~45%. If it were over 50%, I'd say, yes, reraise. Or if he knew with certainty that the BB would call all bets and raises on the turn, I'd say, yes, reraise. But as described and with these assumptions, reraising the turn loses Hero money in the long run.

Hero is flipping vs an eminently solid mp taking this line with a hand like a3kk/a4kk and ahead of strong holdings like a2k9 no set

Will always or almost always be a favorite over 2p
Hero is printing money whenever the pot stays multiway, or capped

Ignoring implied odds on the river worst case scenario is hero runs into a coolerish hand (a2 and set) and still has 40% equity, loses 20% on 2 big bets

Playing this hand agressively generates profits in many ways and makes life difficult for villain

Can you show this? I just did work in my head, but he seemed like an underdog.

It's 8/16 Big O/Stud 8 mix at Commerce Casino in LA
Hawaiian Gardens has a 12/24 Big O/Stud 8 mix
I've heard that Hollywood Park and Bicycle have higher stakes regularly, like 20/40 +

I played with this gentleman for about 2-3 hours up to this point and I have to say his game is SUPER straight forward. He's not mixing in a check raise with anything less then A2K9x, but I feel his most likely hand is a set - Kings make the most sense to me.

It's just a live read on this player type - this guy is NEVER check raise a non made hand and he's not semi bluffing with the QX flush draw.

For point 3 - it's a full 8 handed table. Three players see the flop after I raise.

I think if you isolate the situation by worst case scenario, we assume the villain has KKxxx and BB has A23xx, and neither is ever folding. In a worst case scenario, your EV is still approximately 3.12 big bets if you call and see a river. There are 38 unknown cards, of which 17 make you fold the river (non 10, J, or Q, along with 10 cards that pair the board and 22. The 21 remaining cards that will make your hand break down as 6 scoop cards, 7 cards that earn you 3/4 of the pot, and 8 cards that earn you 25% of the pot.

It is unlikely that MP will call off another bet on the river if either flush comes in and he doesn't boat, so I think it is best to get his chips in now while he has the comfort of holding the nuts. Your positive EV justifies the risk, so you just have to decide if you're the type of player who would rather minimize losses or exploit profitable opportunities. IMO, if you're rolled properly, you shouldn't be shy to cap action on the turn and try to take down a big pot with a favorable river. If you're concerned about the money, however, there is nothing wrong with taking the cautious route and simply flatting the raise.

I actually forgot to factor in that the case Ace will win us half the pot. Our EV is 3.19 big bets, and our good cards break down as follows: 6 scoop, 7 for 3/4, 7 for 1/4, and 1 for half.