Yeah I mean it's POSSIBLE he could only be looking to get in sets with better low draws. But I do think jamming is positive EV. Maybe calling to jam some turns is better if I really believe he's never folding after making this 3 bet.


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Hmm. I fear we are forcing him to make the right play on many turns. Maybe with an extensive analysis (in the style of Galfond's "one hand, 44 rivers") someone could show that it indeed is better. The accuracy of our perception of his range plays a huge part.

I do like the flatting with the intention of shipping next card in at least some spots, but this isn't really one of them.

Really the only times that he'd be likely to even consider folding the turn would be a high diamond or maybe a paired board if he had something like a2/3 + str draw and/or lesser flush draw - and we aren't exactly picking up a lot of extra value there by forcing a fold anyway.

As played, just snap GII unless you have a damn good idea of their ranges. Absolute worst-case scenario leaves you at around 34.6% and your value climbs fairly rapidly even just a few hands down from his strongest possible.

Regarding some of the ranges in particular, I didn't see any AA2/3/4 hands in your sims or possibly even hands like a2kk a3kk...particularly with k-high diamonds. And realistically there's most likely going to be some oddball somewhat weaker hands you didn't expect in there, unless you're somehow certain he's just nut-peddling 3-handed.

Hero can't fold any turn if he flats. Though with more money behind non diamond 7 or 8 can be folded as the equity will be 29-31ish at that point.

Villain can still fold the turn on a few cards, such as when his 2 gets counterfeited, but I don't think villain will make enough mistakes from a stop-and-go for hero to benefit.

I meant villain folding.

Even counterfeit 2 very likely isn't a fold, since a bare a2 or other busted low draw only really wouldn't make much sense on the re-raise from villain - from the description given by OP anyway.