Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaqalicious
looking over this hand again i think the most +EV flop line is shoving >> calling > folding
If there is any chance that specific villain takes this line without having a 3 or 44 in his hand I agree. While the majority of the time villain has this I don't think he always has it. So far in the thread we seem to be assuming villain always has a 3 rather than usually has a 3.
Villains can take off here with some other hands than this for various reasons, maybe in their mind they:
put you on AAxx and want to put you to the test
think you are representing a 3 and don't have one
think you are making a light c-bet
think if you don't have a 3 you will fold
are balancing there range so you pay them off in future when they do have 3 or 44
On these occasions when he doesn't have a 3 or 44 we'll be a long way ahead. Taking wackjobs equity calculation surely this would give us the extra equity we need to shove, even though I think we need more than a 3% equity swing as a competent reg will probably have a co-ordinated 3 against which we will have less equity. I also think in the long run if we back off every time a villain shows aggression on a paired board they will pick up on this and start to take advantage of us. This seems as good a time as any to let him know this won't happen to us because we are ahead of all bluffs and can get lucky if behind.
If we were much deeper I'd start to change my thinking to calling and looking to freeroll (because they'll most likely repop when ahed and fold when behind), likewise because our equity is less than 47.05% against co-ordinated 3's and 44 if villain won't take this line without a 3 or 44 (some won't) I'd again lean towards calling and trying to freeroll, and folding unfavourable turns. Against someone who'm I know to bluff then turn barrel these boards I'd call and raise any turn but a 2 with these stacks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallhallen
Ok here is my crazy idea just to get discusion going!
If all of you are so confident he has a 3xxx hand and we are 47/53 dog to that hand why not just call flop bet and turn bet and fold river if we do not improve instead of shoving the flop that way we invest 300$ to his 400$( assuming he is potting every street) when we lose saving us 100$ if we shove flop and brick both turn and river!
I'm certainly not so confident he has a three that I can ever fold that last $100 once I've put the other $300 in. It's just too weak I feel and will make life very difficult in the future when opponents figure out we'll do this.