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2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised 2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised

08-31-2018 , 04:29 PM
Never really put a lot of thought into what's optimal with these spots

6max.

A489cc in SB.

Really loose/passive player limps button. I complete from SB. BB checks. BB I feel like is on the slightly more passive side.

J44hh flop. I lead and BB raises me.

My typical line is to just flat the raise then see if I can fill up before more aggression. But I almost never just re-raise here with bare trips/ace kicker as I tend to like letting villains barrel, and I wonder if that's suboptimal. Especially considering A. villains are unlikely to have complete air in this spot and B. when turn checks through and his overpair/FD gets a free card it's a disaster.

Preferred lines? Thanks
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-06-2018 , 08:39 AM
If villain is likely to keep betting ott, I'll just call. If not, reraising the flop is preferred.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-12-2018 , 04:05 AM
What's his range here? In theory he could have:
JJ (3 combos)
J4 (3 combos)
A4 (2 combos)
4 with a weaker kicker
An overpair (AA, KK, QQ)
AJ or maybe KJ
The nut flush draw
Some combination of the last three holdings

However, you say he's on the passive side, so I don't think he'd raise the flop with just AJ or just a flush draw, though he could still have both together or something like AA plus the nut flush draw. And there aren't that many combos at the top of his range.

It's a tricky spot because you don't know if he's raising for value or as a free card play—which is another way of saying you don't know if you're way behind or way ahead.

I would flat his raise on the flop, check all turns (with the intention of calling if he bets), and see what he does. His turn action should narrow his range. Then reevaluate things on the river.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-12-2018 , 08:04 PM
thanks for the replies, guys.

really good and thoughtful breakdown, agamblerthen. gives me a lot to consider.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-13-2018 , 03:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by agamblerthen
JJ (3 combos)
J4 (3 combos)
A4 (2 combos)
It's not a holdem, so really combos are different , like
JJ (2625 combos)
J4 (2584 combos)
A4 (2584 combos)

But what is important that if we really think that opp range is that wide, and he wouldn't rase anything even AAw preflop:
we are behind JJ, J4 - like 2% of his possible hands accounting cards elimination
another A4 ~ 1%
we are ahead 4K-45,43-42, AA,KK,QQ, hh -> 21%
4K-45,43-42, AA,KK,QQ, Ahh -> 11%

Last edited by Fold&Forget; 09-13-2018 at 03:53 AM.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-13-2018 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fold&Forget
It's not a holdem, so really combos are different , like
JJ (2625 combos)
J4 (2584 combos)
A4 (2584 combos)

But what is important that if we really think that opp range is that wide, and he wouldn't rase anything even AAw preflop:
we are behind JJ, J4 - like 2% of his possible hands accounting cards elimination
another A4 ~ 1%
we are ahead 4K-45,43-42, AA,KK,QQ, hh -> 21%
4K-45,43-42, AA,KK,QQ, Ahh -> 11%

J4 at 2584 combos double counts JJ4*, to differentiate J4 from JJ, J4 combos shouldn't count JJ4* combos.
A4 at 2584 combos suffers the same problem, it should not include A4JJ, or A4J* combos.

representing the range "4K-45,43-42, AA,KK,QQ, hh" as 21% of possible hands, which is what i believe you are intending also requires correction.
1. if the range = 57026 combos, one arrives at ~21% when you divide it by 270725 (the number of possible hands given a 52 card deck) however card removal is factored into arriving at 57026 for the number of hands in the range, card removal must be used for the denominator as well. shouldn't 148995 be used rather than 270725.
2. of less importance it is unclear whether you have double counted those that also include jj,j4 and a4, i suspect you did and as i mentioned previously i think it better you don't.
Spoiler:

my intent was to be helpful
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-13-2018 , 11:41 PM
I think you should 3-bet and then just b/c every street (unless you hit an A or 4 obv). BB could easily be raising any 4 here plus some flush draws. And the idea to "see if you fill up" doesn't make a lot of sense to me, because even if you fill up, you're usually still behind the hands you were behind on the flop.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-14-2018 , 01:47 AM
ngFTW,

My post was obviously the reply to agamblerthen. In my own post I would calculate equities, not combos numbers.

JJ (2625 combos)
J4 (2584 combos)
A4 (2584 combos)
This combos definitely have a lot of intersection, but the goal was just to show that they are not 3-3-2.

All combos numbers were calculated by PPT, not me, and for sure PPT correctly acconts for card removals and intersections inside given range.

There are some intersections between JJ, J4 range and 4K-45,43-42, AA,KK,QQ, Ahh range as I input those ranges to PPT separately but as initial
ranges are 2-card ranges while intersections are mainly 4-card ranges, intersected range is very narrow and doesn't influence main thing: which range is wider.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote
09-19-2018 , 07:38 AM
for me it's relevant how many overs you have to fill because him having J4 is a major consideration. you have 3 and your backdoor low could win but it's hard with A8.

most likely he just has a worse 4 but you aren't really that far ahead with the ace kicker IF you are ahead.

against certain people, confirmed super nits, i'm honestly thinking bet/fold isn't terrible. but most people you should reluctantly take your hand to the river and call down. mostly if they bet the end they have filled up and it's a judgement call depending on pot size whether you wanna c/c or c/f.

if you fill up i feel like you can only put in more action full of aces rather than nines or eights. so if you will with the 9 or the 8 it doesn't change your relative hand strength that much.

as an aside, i think in 3 way limped pots people don't fight so hard for the pot, especially not the big blind. usually the big blind is looking to minimise losses and move on to the next hand with whatever usual bad starting hand he has, so when he comes out raising in this situation i think you wanna definitely put way more weight on this not being a bluff. based on the description of the guy as well i think you wanna be pretty confident he has a hand here and isn't raising air.

all things considered this isn't a good situation. you essentially have a bluff catcher vs a guy who isn't bluffing and you end up shutting your eyes and putting in a few bets just to save face and not be a nit, but maybe folding will save you more money than you'll win from this spot.

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 09-19-2018 at 07:45 AM.
2/4 LO8: LLH board flopped trips, lead out and raised Quote

      
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