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 PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold?  PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold?

08-18-2021 , 10:47 AM
Ok, I know I will get blasted for this, but here goes

I guess leading flop is mandatory, but do I have to stick it in as played?

My reasons for folding: as played, my flush draw may very well be worthless (I would probably take SB's line with A234 with nut diamonds), my low draw doesn't have any protection and I have a decent stack in a pretty soft tournament*) even if I fold. What's more, I can't win any bounties while my own bounty is something like $80.

No reads on SB, BTN is pretty loose (47/17 I think), but he clearly knows what he's doing. He final tables this tournament all the time. Did I mention I feel like he owns me in every hand I play against him?

    Yatahay Network - 8000/16000 PL (6 max) - Omaha Hi/Lo - 5 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    Hero (BB): 516,414 (32.3 bb)
    UTG: 3,942,413 (246.4 bb)
    CO: 772,222 (48.3 bb)
    BTN: 849,156 (53.1 bb)
    SB: 664,124 (41.5 bb)

    5 players post ante of 800, SB posts 8,000, Hero posts BB 16,000

    Pre Flop: (pot: 28,000) Hero has A 6 3 Q
    2 folds, BTN calls 16,000, SB calls 8,000, Hero checks

    Flop: (52,000, 3 players) 7 9 2
    SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 52,000, SB raises to 208,000, Hero folds, BTN raises to 676,000, SB calls 439,324 and is all-in

    Turn: (1,346,648, 2 players) 6

    River: (1,346,648, 2 players) J

    Results: 1,346,648 pot (0 rake)
    Final Board: 7 9 2 6 J

    BTN shows 5 6 A 5: (High: Flush, Ace High, Low: 7652A)
    (Pre 51%, Flop 60%, Turn 68%)

    SB shows 7 9 K K: (Two Pair, Nines and Sevens)
    (Pre 49%, Flop 40%, Turn 32%)

    BTN wins 1,346,648


    Just in case you're wondering, SB becomes a slight favourite (40/30/30 I think) if we all get it in.


    *)
    Wonder how UTG got this enormous stack?

      Yatahay Network - 6000/12000 PL (6 max) - Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
      Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

      Hero (BTN): 427,076 (35.6 bb)
      SB: 2,160,786 (180.1 bb)
      BB: 510,084 (42.5 bb)
      UTG: 954,356 (79.5 bb)
      MP: 1,225,300 (102.1 bb)
      CO: 1,466,727 (122.2 bb)

      6 players post ante of 600, SB posts 6,000, BB posts 12,000

      Pre Flop: (pot: 21,600) Hero has 7 3 J 7
      2 folds, CO raises to 45,600, Hero folds, SB calls 39,600, BB calls 33,600

      Flop: (140,400, 3 players) Q 9 J
      SB bets 140,400, fold, CO raises to 559,441, SB raises to 1,818,723, CO calls 861,086 and is all-in

      Turn: (2,981,454, 2 players) A

      River: (2,981,454, 2 players) 4

      Results: 2,981,454 pot (0 rake)
      Final Board: Q 9 J A 4

      SB shows T K 3 5: (Straight, Ace High)
      (Pre 39%, Flop 56%, Turn 81%)

      CO shows T A 4 2: (Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
      (Pre 61%, Flop 44%, Turn 19%)

      SB wins 2,981,454

      Last edited by dingdongdonkey; 08-18-2021 at 10:54 AM.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-18-2021 , 11:25 AM
      I would play every street exactly as you did.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-18-2021 , 06:22 PM
      Tight fold with a3 seems fine given bounty and FT situation.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-18-2021 , 07:27 PM
      As played, fold is ok. I don't mind underrepping the hand after declining the option PF. I would not consider a lead OTF without more options (nut flush, or gutshot) so once it goes bet, c/r, you have to assume your draws are no longer strong.

      Different view: Why not raise the BTN limp PF? Curious about your rationale there. With the pre-flop raise, a flop lead is mandatory and works out in the end, though maybe you don't get the KK97 to stack off though.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-19-2021 , 12:05 PM
      yeesh i guess i suck cause i woulda called flop? lmao

      i guess i'd be thinking, checked/limped ranges from the btn/SB, are we really facing off against nut diamonds, A3w type stuff? so i'd feel like i'd wanna get it in. but i guess the presumptive idea is more about the pot/re-pot action telling us what their ranges are, even if pre was low action.

      i'd call pre and check flop at least, though
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-19-2021 , 04:27 PM
      I don't think getin is a massive mistake at all, but feels a bit unnecessary especially with the alleged skill advantage.

      Pre was limped to us, so you probably mean check pre.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-19-2021 , 04:47 PM
      Quote:
      Originally Posted by amok
      I don't think getin is a massive mistake at all, but feels a bit unnecessary especially with the alleged skill advantage.
      Just to clarify, I thought the tournament was pretty soft overall but I'm not sure I still have an edge at this stage. I don't think anybody else would make such a a colossal punt as CO did in the hand above (I do realize he had a gutter and the nut flush draw, but stacking off for 150bb on the flop has to be a massive mistake in my opinion). To be totally honest, I most likely don't have an edge and may even be the most likely candidate for a big mistake (not that it really matters) so this might be a good reason to just stick it in here and hope for the best.

      BTN's hand is one of the worst possible hands for my own equity and still I'm not way behind.

      Last edited by dingdongdonkey; 08-19-2021 at 04:53 PM.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-19-2021 , 06:26 PM
      Yep, but SB is at the very bottom of his range.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-19-2021 , 07:25 PM
      Quote:
      Originally Posted by amok
      I don't think getin is a massive mistake at all, but feels a bit unnecessary especially with the alleged skill advantage.

      Pre was limped to us, so you probably mean check pre.
      yeah i see what you're saying

      and yeah i mean i check pre
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      08-20-2021 , 12:07 AM
      Quote:
      Originally Posted by amok
      Yep, but SB is at the very bottom of his range.
      I guess it's just a mixture of best case scenario and worst case scenario.

      I could obviously be crushed ...

      Quote:
      http://twodimes.net/h/?z=14621294
      pokenum -o8 ad 5d 6c 5s - ac 6d 3h qd - kd ks 9s 9c -- 9d 2d 7h
      Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 9d 2d 7h
      cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
      5s 6c Ad 5d 62 194 472 0 99 371 6 0.235
      Ac Qd 6d 3h 6 6 660 0 371 99 6 0.285
      SB Ks 9s 9c Kd 173 466 200 0 0 0 0 0.480
      Quote:
      http://twodimes.net/h/?z=14621293
      pokenum -o8 ad 5d 6c 5s - ac 6d 3h qd - 4d 3d 9s 9c -- 9d 2d 7h
      Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 9d 2d 7h
      cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
      5s 6c Ad 5d 50 174 492 0 67 364 4 0.205
      Ac Qd 6d 3h 6 6 660 0 303 128 4 0.233
      SB 9s 9c 4d 3d 248 486 180 0 61 254 0 0.562

      Quote:
      http://twodimes.net/h/?z=14621295
      pokenum -o8 ad 5d 6c 5s - ac 6d 3h qd - ah 3d 9h 4d -- 9d 2d 7h
      Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 9d 2d 7h
      cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
      5s 6c Ad 5d 92 297 368 1 8 405 0 0.294
      Ac Qd 6d 3h 41 60 605 1 3 102 308 0.194
      SB 4d 3d Ah 9h 187 308 358 0 94 11 308 0.512
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      09-09-2021 , 01:34 PM
      Remember: non-nut flushes in Omaha HL no matter the format are the trickiest to play near the bubble. That's a really smart line you took in hand one. You're either huge, or hoping a A or 3 don't come. And there it's likely you're dead to the lo coming and holding.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote
      09-09-2021 , 04:20 PM
      Original play was perfect. Thinking at time of posting not so much.

      The way you want to play this sort of hand is against one opponent who is out of line, so leading into this limped pot will range from somewhere between solidly -EV and slightly good. And calling the bet and checkraise is just suicide.
       PKO close to the Final Table: Nitty fold? Quote

            
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