Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Solvers would prove it, but that's not why I say it.
Solvers don't "prove" anything. It is not gospel, especially in 4 card games. Trying to have a say 1,8% lead range is borderline nonsensical IMO. Even if it was somehow the optimal thing to do, the difference between 0% lead must be miniscule.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
In this spot I think its because we will often prefer b/3! To xr because the turn play can be somewhat challenging when our xr is called
You are correct in that when we have a strong hand, we want to get in as much money in as possible. In practice, people seem cbet way too often but definitely don't raise leads way too often. Turn play when c/r is called is not so challenging that we should start having second thoughts about c/r:ing. Sure, IP has the better of it, but that's how it is in poker 200bb deep.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Also because simply calling with such a monster often is very unlikely to be the best line
Nobody actually suggested calling though. Anyway, I don't think it's that horrible not to have a raising range at all on such a wet board that hits the raiser's range hard. Especially when villain makes typical assumptions on the fact that we did not raise (i.e. barrels way too much on certain cards) OR if we have no idea how to play turns after our c/r flop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Thats without getting into how often villain should checkback on this board (not a small amount imo) and our hand isn't likely to get that much action once hero becomes nutted
Villain should cback such board probably way more often than people actually do. Here we also block a ton of strong hands, so villain's cbet should be lower than normally. The latter part of your claim I don't really agree with. If villain cbacks a decent A2 or FD he must call us down on many runouts. If villain cbacks air (=mostly AA with not much else) it doesn't matter that much what we do with our nutty hands, but of course if we were clairvoyant we'd check every street.