Quote:
Originally Posted by microstakesrave
For example, say it's a 10 person sit-n-go. Person 1 dumps ALL their chips to person 2. They now have double the chance of winning -- in theory. Make sense?
Not really, because they have also paid twice as much.
I got curious and tried to do the math. Consider a 10-person 10+1 SNG with payouts 50-30-20. Suppose that we have two seats in the tournament. If we don't chip dump, our expected payout is clearly 20. If we dump one of our stacks onto the other right at the start at the tournaments, I would say that the expected payout is
2/10*50+8/10*(2/9*30+7/9*(2/8*20))=18.444...
So if I'm right, chip dumping is a bad idea. Our EV is 1.56 less than if we choose not to.
Here's the explanation of the calculation. (Let me know if I'm wrong). Since we have 2/10 of the chips in play, we have a 2/10 chance to win. This means that 8 times out of 10, we will
not win. Those times, we have 2/9 of the chips in play that don't belong to the person who will eventually win. So there should be a 2/9 chance that we will finish second. 7 times out of 9, we will do worse than that. Those times, we have 2/8 of the chips in play that don't belong to the two that will finish first and second, so we should have a 2/8 chance to finish third.
This month's results at Ongame 1/2 NL 6-max are somewhat entertaining and relevant to this thread:
http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...s-month/1-2-NL
In case it has changed by the time you click on it,