Your math is way off. That is the odds of getting dealt a SPECIFIC hand twice in a row.

junwagh, this is especially for you and is my way of saying it's been fun trash talking with you but enough is enough. You keep insisting it's impossible to have a probability of one. What if I ask, what is the probability that if I flip a coin, it will come up either heads or tails? Since there are two outcomes that meet my requirements, heads and tails, and there are two total possible outcomes, also heads and tails, then I would say the probability would be 2/2=1. Take care and cya around.

Is this the same Large Louster who used to play micro NL on Big Juicy Odds?

Go back and read the original question. It was the odds of getting the same 2 cards, ignoring order, twice in a row. That is a specific hand and I stand by my math. If, as you say, Your math is way off then why don't you show us the correct math?

I've never played on Big Juicy Odds. However, I used to play micro NL (.02/.05) as LargeLouster at Jungle Poker. As I recall, Jungle Poker and Big Juicy Odds were both part of the DynamicGamingSystems network (now bankrupt). It's possible that is where you recognize me from. What was your nic at BJO, we might have played together?

We did play together...did you ever get your $ off that site? I was ripped off by BJO to the tune of about $150.

I still had about 500 at Jungle Poker when they went under. If you recall, no one was able to withdraw after Sep, 2007 (I did get about 400 in winnings off the site before Sep, 2007). I had about 300 there in Sep, 2007, so I really only got ripped off for about 300. Everything after that was imaginary money, it didn't really exist. I knew 2 players who lost a lot more; Gerdahitman lost 2300 and TurtallyPoker lost 3500 (although TurtallyPoker turned out to be a guy posing as a girl and ran a couple of scams in the panic that followed the bankruptcy announcement). But you still didn't say who you are? What was your name? Do you remember my 3 all time favorite players, WTFUDOIN, Cornholio and Princessjac? In spite of the ripoff, Jungle Poker was the most fun place I've ever played at. The people were the best.

louster I like how you make personal attacks against me yet fail to back up your reasoning, although I already foresaw this because your reasoning is flawed and cannot be credibly backed up. If you can tell me how the probability of ANY EVENT EVER can be greater than one I will agree that I am a moron and should not have posted.

If you so adamantly believe that the probability of heads appearing on a coin after two flips "IN THEORY" is one, put your money where your mouth is and lets do this thing proper. Ill bet any amount you want provided a decent sample size (in case your a degen gambler with millions jus spouting nonsense, which is beginning to seem likely).

Also I never said it's impossible to have a probability of one ever, but it certainly is impossible for the probability of drawing aces twice to be one.

I didn't do the calculations, but I what I meant to say is that your logic is off. If you get dealt a random hand, then probability of getting that same hand again is 1,300:1 (or whatever the hell the number of total possible hands is, I never bothered to remember since it doesn't matter).

Now if someone asked you what is probability of getting deal 7h3s twice in a row is, then I am sure you are correct. It is hardly that rare.

The probability of getting 7h3s depends on whether or not the order in which you get them matters. If if doesn't matter, it's 2/52*1/51=1/1,326. If the order does matter, it's 1/52*1/51=1/2,652. As you say, that's not all that rare. But the probability of getting it twice in a row is very rare. The first example becomes 1/1326*^2=1/1,758,276 and the second example becomes 1/2,652^2=1/7,033,104.

Again, if the question is what is the probability of getting 7h3s after you just got it, use example one. If the question is what is the probability of getting it twice in a row, use example two. I don't think my logic was off and I still stand by my math.

Being a moron doesn't mean you shouldn't post. You should post as often as you want.

lmao you still haven't addressed the gaping holes in louster's theory of probability. Just wanted to make sure no one took some of your hairbrained calculations at face value.

Wat are the odds getting dealt KJo 4 times in a row, it was bizzar at the time, wish it was a better hand but i did make a play with them twice for variation,

Full Tilt Poker Game #11847869594: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (88829336), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:07:21 ET - 2009/04/24
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 (1,405)
Seat 3: AverageBro (1,740)
Seat 4: PhattBoss (1,495)
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx (1,845)
Seat 6: BigTed0 (1,705)
Seat 7: jughead35 (2,330)
Seat 9: DeckVicious (2,980)
xDUDEMONx posts the small blind of 30
BigTed0 posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PhattBoss [Js Kh]
jughead35 calls 60
DeckVicious folds
thisfiendis138 folds
AverageBro folds
PhattBoss raises to 270
xDUDEMONx folds
BigTed0 folds
jughead35 calls 210
*** FLOP *** [Kc Qs 2d]
jughead35 checks
PhattBoss bets 300
jughead35 folds
Uncalled bet of 300 returned to PhattBoss
PhattBoss mucks
PhattBoss wins the pot (630)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 630 | Rake 0
Board: [Kc Qs 2d]
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: AverageBro didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: PhattBoss (button) collected (630), mucked
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BigTed0 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: jughead35 folded on the Flop
Seat 9: DeckVicious didn't bet (folded)



Full Tilt Poker Game #11847874810: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (88829336), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:07:58 ET - 2009/04/24
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 (1,405)
Seat 3: AverageBro (1,740)
Seat 4: PhattBoss (1,855)
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx (1,815)
Seat 6: BigTed0 (1,645)
Seat 7: jughead35 (2,060)
Seat 9: DeckVicious (2,980)
BigTed0 posts the small blind of 30
jughead35 posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PhattBoss [Ks Jh]
DeckVicious folds
thisfiendis138 folds
AverageBro folds
PhattBoss calls 60
xDUDEMONx calls 60
BigTed0 folds
jughead35 checks
*** FLOP *** [Qh Js Ah]
jughead35 checks
PhattBoss checks
xDUDEMONx bets 60
jughead35 calls 60
PhattBoss calls 60
*** TURN *** [Qh Js Ah] [5c]
jughead35 checks
PhattBoss checks
xDUDEMONx bets 60
jughead35 calls 60
PhattBoss calls 60
*** RIVER *** [Qh Js Ah 5c] [4s]
jughead35 checks
PhattBoss bets 300
xDUDEMONx calls 300
jughead35 folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PhattBoss shows [Ks Jh] a pair of Jacks
xDUDEMONx shows [Ad 2s] a pair of Aces
xDUDEMONx wins the pot (1,170) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,170 | Rake 0
Board: [Qh Js Ah 5c 4s]
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: AverageBro didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: PhattBoss showed [Ks Jh] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx (button) showed [Ad 2s] and won (1,170) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: BigTed0 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: jughead35 (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 9: DeckVicious didn't bet (folded)



Full Tilt Poker Game #11847882745: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (88829336), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:08:54 ET - 2009/04/24
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 (1,405)
Seat 3: AverageBro (1,740)
Seat 4: PhattBoss (1,375)
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx (2,505)
Seat 6: BigTed0 (1,615)
Seat 7: jughead35 (1,880)
Seat 9: DeckVicious (2,980)
jughead35 posts the small blind of 30
DeckVicious posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PhattBoss [Js Kh]
thisfiendis138 folds
AverageBro raises to 180
PhattBoss calls 180
xDUDEMONx calls 180
BigTed0 folds
jughead35 folds
DeckVicious folds
*** FLOP *** [Ac 7d 5c]
AverageBro checks
PhattBoss bets 210
xDUDEMONx folds
AverageBro folds
Uncalled bet of 210 returned to PhattBoss
PhattBoss mucks
PhattBoss wins the pot (630)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 630 | Rake 0
Board: [Ac 7d 5c]
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: AverageBro folded on the Flop
Seat 4: PhattBoss collected (630), mucked
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx folded on the Flop
Seat 6: BigTed0 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: jughead35 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: DeckVicious (big blind) folded before the Flop



Full Tilt Poker Game #11847889970: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (88829336), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:09:45 ET - 2009/04/24
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 (1,405)
Seat 3: AverageBro (1,560)
Seat 4: PhattBoss (1,825)
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx (2,325)
Seat 6: BigTed0 (1,615)
Seat 7: jughead35 (1,850)
Seat 9: DeckVicious (2,920)
DeckVicious posts the small blind of 30
thisfiendis138 posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PhattBoss [Kc Jh]
AverageBro folds
PhattBoss raises to 210
xDUDEMONx folds
BigTed0 calls 210
jughead35 folds
DeckVicious folds
thisfiendis138 raises to 1,405, and is all in
PhattBoss folds
BigTed0 folds
Uncalled bet of 1,195 returned to thisfiendis138
thisfiendis138 mucks
thisfiendis138 wins the pot (660)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 660 | Rake 0
Seat 2: thisfiendis138 (big blind) collected (660), mucked
Seat 3: AverageBro didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: PhattBoss folded before the Flop
Seat 5: xDUDEMONx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: BigTed0 folded before the Flop
Seat 7: jughead35 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: DeckVicious (small blind) folded before the Flop

I just scanned through this thread so apologies if this has been stated already...

But isn't the probability of being delt the same pocket pair twice in a row (e.g. Kings) is

(6/1326)*(6/1326)?

If they are so harebrained, why, after all this time, haven't you shown us the correct calculations? Also, the people who read this thread are capable of drawing their own conclusions, they don't need your help. You're kind of like a broken clock, except you're not even right twice a day. I'm beginning to think you have a ghost writer, Glenn Livet, who writes this stuff for you.

Depends on how choosy you are. If it can be any king and any jack in any order, chances of it once are 1/(4/52*3/51/)/2=1/884. Four in a row is 1/884^4=1/610,673,479,936.

If order does matter, chances of it once are 1/(4/52*3/51)=1/221. Four in a row is 1/221^4=1/2,385,443,281.

If it has to be a specific king but can be any jack (or vice versa) in any order, chances of it once are 1/(1/52*3/51)/2=1/442. Four in a row is 1/442^4=1/38,167,092,496.

If order does matter, chances of it once are 1/(1/52*3/51)=1/884. Four in a row is 1/884^4=1/610,673,479,936.

If it has to be a specific king and a specific jack in any order, chances of it once are 1/(1/52*1/51)/2=1/1,326. Four in a row is 1/1,326^4=1/3,091,534,492,176.

Finally, if you're a true nitpik (like junwagh), and it has to be a specific king and a specific jack in a specific order, chances of it once are 1/(1/52*1/51)=1/2,652. Four in a row is 1/2,652^4=1/49,464,551,874,816.

Since it's easy to make an error in all these calculations, if anyone can find one, I'd appreciate it if you would point it out and also provide the correction.

Of course, to get the definitive answer, you'll just have to wait until junwagh has had a few and decides to weigh in on the matter. Just make sure you have a bottle of aspirin handy.

louster I never said all your calculations were incorrect. But that particular post I read had sooo many incorrect assumptions that I've addressed countless times. Yet all you do is dodge having to explain yourself and call me a drunk.

Whats about kings?

Look on the bright side, it's better than being called a degenerate gambler or being challenged to a coin flipping contest (although I have to admit, that was a nice touch...how about heads I win and tails you lose?). Besides, I don't recall calling you a drunk. I just intimated that most of what you post seems as if it were written after..........well, you can connect the dots.

You want proof here's your proof. This was one of my first posts where you posed a problem and I solved it. You are right that I am right in my calculation of two players getting dealt aces heads up. Your calculations of the odds of two players getting dealt aces in a 9 handed game is dead wrong however. Do you realize that according to you the odds of two players getting dealt aces in a nine handed game is less than the odds of two players getting dealt aces heads up. Does this really make sense to you?

sighs I see what you're doing louster. I think your not taking this seriously anymore, maybe because you realize how wrong you've been but can't admit it, and maybe because some of your posts in this have been a giant level. You got me.

Also, maybe your not taking my posts seriously cause I called you out in a way that may have offended you. If that's the case my bad. But some of your work is shoddy in its foundation.

OK, I'm gonna do this once more so you will stop having these hissy fits. My calculation is of the chances of any two of the nine players at the table getting dealt AA in the same hand and is correct. 52*51/2/6/9*50*49/2/8=3,760.06. How is one chance in about 3,760 less than one chance in 270,725? (the chance of either 2 specific players at a 9 handed table getting AA in the same hand, which is the same as 2 players playing heads up getting AA in the same hand). I guarantee you that 1/3,760 is a much larger number than 1/270,725. But don't take my word for it (you wouldn't anyway), do the arithmetic yourself and compare the two numbers.

Finally, and I do mean finally, (you can have the last word if you want), it's not your posts I don't take seriously (I enjoyed the earlier ones where you would ramble on incoherently and insult people), it's you I don't take seriously.

Lol you're right that 1/3760 is not less than 1/270725. Dunno what I was thinking. But your final answer is still wrong. I dunno what you did in your calculation but if you multiply the probability of both having aces hu by the different number of combos for players to have aces in a nine handed game that should equal the final probability, no? If so there are 9Choose2 combos (36) and 36*(4/52)*(3/51)*(2/50)*(1/49) does not equal 1/270725.

"In fact, when you are dealt hand #48,882, the probability becomes 1.0, since you now have had 48,881 chances of something that has a probability of 1/48,881, and (1/48,841)/48,841=1"
First, your math is wrong. (1/48,841)/48,841=4.2 x 10^-10. Maybe you meant to say (1/48,841)*48,841=1, which is an accurate mathematical expression, but still not how you find the probability in this instance.
The probability of drawing aces twice as more hands are played will never equal one, but will converge to 1. A probability of one means that it will always happen. But i guarantee you there will be people who play 48,800 hands and do not get aces twice in a row.
Furthermore, say you were to one billion hands. According to you, this probability would be (1/48481)/1 billion which is almost 0. Even using multiplication that number comes to (1/48481)*1 billion, which is a number greater than one, making it an impossible number for a probability.

Consider a simpler problem, flipping a coin. The probability of heads is 1/2, so mathematically, the probability of heads is 1.0 every two flips. But that is only a mathematical expression of what you can expect to happen over time and doesn't demand that the coin alternate between heads and tails. However, the more times you flip the coin, the more your results will get closer and closer to the probability of heads as 1/2

Again, your thinking is flawed. You say the probability of heads is 1.0 every two flips. This statement is vague but suppose you mean the probability that at least one coin is heads is 1.0. The possible coin combos after two flips are hh ht th tt. Of those 3/4 have at least one heads. 2/4 have heads exactly once. The only possible probability for 1 here is that either coins have heads or tails on them.
Then you state that the more times you flip the coin, the more your results will get closer and closer to the probability of heads as 1/2. I think what you meant to say is the more you flip the coins the closer your results come to expected value, which is number of trials/2 for number of heads or tails.The probability of heads does not get closer to 1/2 as it never changes.


You wanted more proof and there is your proof.