My girldfriend said not to bother doing this cuz, as she put it, "no one cares about ur dumbass math." I gotta admit, in her own way, she is profound. But, Im gonna do it anyway. The correct answer is:

Odds of KK are 1/(52*51/2/6/8)=1/27.625. Odds of AQ are 1/(50*49/2/6/7)=1/29.166666666667. Since u don't seem concerned with the order of the 1st flop, odds are 1/(3/48*2/47*1/46=17,296.00. Odds of turn card are 1/(1/45)=45.

Product is 1/627,115,125

Odds of guy who had KK getting AQ on 2nd hand are same as odds of his KK on 1st hand cuz ur just figuring odds of two cards of a certain rank. Same applies to odds of guy who got AQ getting KK on 2nd hand. The flop odds change cuz u said they have to come in a specific order and become 1/(1/48*1/47*1/46)=103,776.00. Turn odds remain the same since there is still only one card that meets ur requirements and are 1/(1/45)=45.

Product is 1/3,762,690,750.

So, the correct overall odds are (i hope) 1/627,115,125*1/3,762,690,750=1/2,359,640,280,022,590,000.

No I'm talking about the very first 4 hands of the tournament only.
Hand 1: two guys both held KK
Hand 2: I held KK
Hand 3: I held KK
Hand 4: I held KK

thanks...this stuff makes my brain hurt...so in summary guess you're saying it's rare

Alot of you are going off the reservation.

As one of my statistics professors in college once said "Insanely improbably stuff happens all the time, because something has gotta happen"

For example, let's say you get T7o, followed by J4o, followed by 88, followed by K9o, followed by 75s, followed by Q2o.

Seem like a pretty standard series of hold em hands to me, and you wouldn't think of it as particularly odd or remarkable would you?

Well, if one of you number crunchers wants to do the math, what are the odds of getting this exact sequence of cards? It's a number so small you'd think it was a miracle, but hey it happened right? What are the odds!

If you walked into a casino and saw the roulette wheel had just hit six 27's in a row you'd be like 'WOW! What are the odds?" If you saw it had been, 27, 3, 31, 14, 12, 20 it would just look like random garbage, but you know what? The odds of each sequence EXACTLY THE SAME, one seems amazing, one doesn't.

When people talk to me about the lottery, I tell them they should play 1-2-3-4-5-6. They always are like "No, that would never hit." and I just smile.

dumb post

but

your last paragraph is correct though I wouldn't choose those numbers simply for the fact that it's probably the most popular selection and you're going to be chopping mega-multiway if they hit.

The entire post is technically correct.

What are the odds!

Sqwerty,

I'm gonna assume ur playing nine handed and don't care which two of the other eight players got dealt KK.

Hand 1: 1/(52*51/2/6/8*50*49/2/7)=1/4,834.375
Hand 2: 4/52*3/51=12/2,625=1/221
Hand 3: 4/52*3/51=12/2,625=1/221
Hand 4: 4/52*3/51=12/2,625=1/221

If you let P represent the overall probablity of these 4 inidividual events happeneing the way you described them, which is 4 in a row in that order, then you get:

P=1/4,834.375*1/221*1/221*1/221=1/52,181,571,771.875

Regards, LargeLouster

Assuming ur playing 9 handed and letting P= probability of what u described happening, u get:

P=4/52*3/51*4/50*3/49*4/48*3/47*4/46*3/45*4/44*3/43*2/42*1/41=
(497,664)/(98,856,066,097,781,000,000)=1/198,640,179,112,375 which would be expressed as odds of 198,640,179,112,374:1 against.

As usual, I made a typo. Hands 2,3,4 should be 12/2,652 and not 12/2,625

It tilts me that this thread is still going. Dumb people ITT.

What does that say about you since you're still reading it?

Did you know Monty Hall is now some, different, Bristolian guy, trying to start a farm (a croft) on the moors of Scotland?

It really confused me, when I saw the TV listings.

This just happened again to me today on FTP. Seems like there's a bug in their shuffler's random number generator.

The odds of getting dealt exactly the same two cards (same rank and suit), but ignoring order, twice in a row are 1/(2/52*1/51*2/52*1/51)=1/1,758,276 or 1,758,275 to 1. That's about 1.7 million to 1. But remember, Full Tilt has dealt about 11.7 billion hands to date, so what happened to you has happened about 6,900 times so far at Full Tilt (11.7 billion/1.7 million=~6,900).

I suppose AA getting dealt twice in a row is nice, three times is better, winning with them Priceless!!!

I am more of a person who gets 7 2 dealt 3 times in a row, but only on BB SB and Button

Mason, I would like to offer you a bet. I will deal you two hands in a row. If both are aces, I will pay you 1000/1. Given such a hugely +EV bet, you will surely want to put some money on, amirite?

Assuming I have played 50,000 hand on FTP; what's the odds of this happening to me 3 times?

I do not know but I was playing poker on pokerroom.com and had pocket KK's four times in a row!!!!

I played at Harrah's Casino yesterday and was playing 4 (FOUR) handed and guess what? A lady at the table got dealt pocket AA's 3 times in a row!!!!! WOW! Figure that out?

Pletho

Assuming you mean the odds of it happening 3 times in the 50,000 hands you have played, 1,758,276/(50,000/3)=1/105.49656 or about 104 to 1.

Pocket Kings 4 times in a row is 1/221^4=1/2,385,443,281 or 2,385,443,280 to 1.

Pocket Aces 3 times in a row is 1/221^3=1/10,793,861 or 10,793,860 to 1.

The way you say it, you'll pay 1,000 to 1 if the 2 hands are AA, you don't say he has to pay anything if they aren't, so of course he would accept. If you meant that if the two hands were not AA, he had to pay you, he'd have to be crazy to accept. The odds of him getting AA twice in a row are 44,840 to 1 against him. Why would he accept a bet that only pays him 1,000 to 1? Theoretically, if he bet $1 each time, after you had dealt the 2 hands 44,841 times, he would have won $1,000 and lost $44,840, for a net loss of $43,840. Nothing personal, but you need to learn a little bit about probabilities, especially comparing pot odds (actual and implied) with the odds of making a hand.

Nope.

Its JUST 1/(2/52*1/51) = 1/1326

Thats why it has happened many times to all of us, and not just 6,900 times out of billions of hands.

Fools.

Hope this doesn't ruin your day, but you need to go back and read the original question and what I said in my answer, which was the odds of it happening twice in a row which is 1/1,326^2=1,758,276 or about 1.7 million to one or about 6,900 out of 11.7 billion like I said. You ended your comment with the word Fools.

It reminded me of a saying you might find interesting: Better to remain silent and be thought the fool, than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

As usual, I made several typos, which I've shown in bold, specifically on line 5 typing 44,840 to 1 when it should have been 48,840 to 1. Also, on line 7 typing 44,841 and $44,840 when correct is 48,841 and $48,840. Finally, on line 8 $43,840 should be $47,840. While you're learning something about probabilities, I'm gonna enroll in a typing class.

What is the correct method determining the odds relative to hands played?