It might be helpful to look at the way in which a mathematical probability is determined. Mathematically, you simply divide the number of outcomes that meet your requirements by the total number of possible outcomes. This applies to coin flipping as well as getting AA. First, however, it's necessary to distinguish between dependent events and statistacally independent events. In both the case of the coin and the cards, the 2nd flip and the 2nd deal depend on the outcome of the first event, but only in the sense of whether it happened or not. If it happened (the coin came up heads or you were dealt AA) then the second event becomes possible. If it didn't happen, the second event becomes meaningless since something can't happen twice in a row until it has happened once. However, mathematically, these two events remain statistically independent of each other because the probability of the outcome of one has no effect on the probability of the outcome of the other. If the coin came up tails, you could still flip it a 2nd time and the probability of it coming up heads would remain the same.
Flip the coin and there is 1 way to meet your requirement of heads, but 2 total possible outcomes, heads or tails (leaners don't count). So the probability of it being heads is expressed as 1/2 or 50%. If you want to determine the probability of it coming up heads twice in a row, you apply the same method. The 2nd flip, by itself, has the same probability as the 1st flip, for the same reason. However, when you look at the 2 flips as a single event, things change. There is still only 1 outcome that meets your requirements..heads, heads. But now there are 4 total possible outcomes..heads,heads..heads,tails..tails, heads..tails, tails. So the probability of heads twice in a row becomes 1/4 or 25%.
The same principle applies to the cards. On the 1st hand, there are 6 two card combinations of AA which meet your requirements (we can ignore order since we don't care in what order we received the cards) and 1,326 possible two card combinations (again ignoring order). So, the probability of the 1st pair of aces is 6/1,326=1/221. Just as with the coin flip, the probability of the 2nd AA is also 1/221 since, like the coin flips, the probabilty of each seperate event has no effect on the probability of the other event. However, just as with the coin, when you are determining the probability of AA twice in a row, things change. There is still only 1 outcome that meets your requirements, AA,AA. However, just as with the coin, the number of total possible outcomes changes. They are too numerous to list, but fortunately you can just multiply 221*221 and get the total number of possible outcomes as 48,441. So, applying the same basic principle, divide the number of outcomes that meet your requrements by the total number of possible outcomes and you get 1/48,841.
There are two other things worth mentioning. First, it's not necessary for the girl this whole debate is about to have the hands dealt to her at the same time. She could play one hand of Hold Em, be dealt AA and not play another hand of poker for 10 years. If, when she sat down to play again, she was dealt AA, that would be considered twice in a row in her frame of reference, which is the only one that counts in answering her question. Second, the answer 1/48,841 says nothing about when the "two in a row" will occur. It could be the first 2 hands a person is dealt or you could go 48,841 deals without it happening at all. The probability only says that the more hands you deal, the closer and closer your actual results will get to 1/48,841. The only exception, ironically, is online poker. You could program the game software to make sure that each player gets AA twice in a row exactly once out of every 44,841 deals. But we all know that can't happen (
) because the sites assure us that they use something called a "random number generator" which accurately reproduces the random distribution of cards you would expect from a properly shuffled deck of 52 cards.
Last edited by LargeLouster; 04-13-2009 at 02:11 PM.