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How is being delt aces twice in a row not over 40,000-to-1? How is being delt aces twice in a row not over 40,000-to-1?

07-08-2009 , 12:47 AM
When I started playing poker, I got dealt aces three times in a row in a Stars $1/45man. Only the first one got paid off. I told the table, but I don't think they believed me, doesn't really matter anyway, just three more hands to play. I haven't forgotten about it, though.
07-27-2009 , 11:59 PM
If you want to talk about the problem being well defined isnt the 1/48k answer correct. She simply wanted to know what the probability of getting dealt aces two times in a row was, not the probability of getting dealt aces assuming she had just been dealt aces
07-28-2009 , 04:21 AM
This actually happens several times in tournaments I see, but it is because of the number of hands being dealt exponentially so its not too hard to believe.
07-28-2009 , 10:47 AM
Two weeks ago in the daily dollar tournament, I was dealt back to back aces....TWICE! In total, I was dealt aces 6 times and KK 6 times. I finished 4th out of over 3800 contestants. That was the best run of cards I've ever had in a tourney, yet I feel like I didn't play very well. I was chip leader 4 times on and off with under 50 players remaining, twice at the final table, but my reckless play leaked out a lot of chips.
07-28-2009 , 04:22 PM
In my opnion, this is a common statistical failure. Take a very simple example. If I flip a coin 99 times, and it comes up tails every time, the chances that it will come up heads the next time is still 50%. That's why you so often hear someone say, "that is statistically impossible", when truly, the real odds are significantly different.

In even simpler terms, just because lightning hasn't hit anyone in a thousand years doesn't mean that the next time it strikes it will most likely hit you.
07-28-2009 , 10:07 PM
This thread should be deleted. Why would anyone bump this pig? If you don't understand the concepts of probability enough to understand that this question is ALWAYS worded improperly, that the answer depends on the way the question is understood, and that "it happens but not a lot" you should be browsing and asking your questions here: http://disney.go.com/index .

That said, if you are getting AA X2 often then you need to do two things. Move up to where they respect aces and anytime you get AA play the next hand blind betting and extracting all the way to the river. You will know you have AA but no one else will believe it because you have not even looked at your hand. Easy money!
08-10-2009 , 12:16 PM
I got KK in a twice in a row and getting allin pre. Both of the times against smaller pp who obviously got their 3rd card on the board. What are the odds of that?
First post ftw.

      
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