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I think this "what would they have to gain" argument is nonsense. I will make it very simple. Why make $X in a fair game when you can rig it and make 2*$X.
Wow. 2*X? In order to rig their games to make 2*X, they would have to do such an incredible amount of rigging that, by now, a 2+2er would have ample evidence to turn them in just from the sheer number of hands that people have played to this point.
Maybe you mean, “Why make $X in a fair game when you can rig it and make .3*$X?” Something less noticeable at least? Then, the thought is, is it worth risking billions to make just a little extra? I’m not totally discounting your notion, I just don’t think that it would be worth the risk, or to put it more in your terms, the risk is not worth the reward.
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Huge multinational corporations that make tons of legitimate profits still cook their books and choose to engage in unscrupulous business practices in order to make more money. Why?
Why? Because, when they’re caught, they pay fines, and penalties, get a little bad press, improve their public image with a few press releases that water down their crimes, and no one really cares. For example, I could care less that Ford would cook their books at all…if I like their trucks, I’m still buying them.
But, if a poker site is known to rig things…they’re done. Period. No one in their right mind would ever come back, there’s too many other sites that would offer rig free poker to have to go to one that has been caught.