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Who will run against Trump in 2020? Who will run against Trump in 2020?

12-11-2018 , 03:45 PM
No ****, get the actual **** out of here with that nonsense
12-11-2018 , 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I would definitely support getting rid of the filibuster. I would also support making the electoral college not winner-take-all, but proportioned within each state, as it is done in one or two states now. I'm not sure if either of these would require a constitutional amendment to implement.
As far as I know, the Constitution grants the states the power to decide how to do that. I don't think the EC vote is proportional in any states, there are two states that have a separate electoral vote going to a district (pretty sure it's Maine and Nebraska).

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
If the democrats do gain power and somehow manage to make DC and/or Puerto Rico into a state, get ready for Texas to become 5 states the next time the Republicans are in power. I think that's a dangerous box to open.
Perhaps. But it's more dangerous not to open it and let them just keep ****ting all over democratic norms at every turn, while banking on their advantage in the Senate to hold an advantage on the bench and protect all their political priorities while ruling from the minority.

Our next chance to make changes to the unfair system, if we even get one more chance, will very likely be our last. We have to use it.
12-11-2018 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Juleanna Glover has worked as an adviser for several Republican politicians, including George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Rudy Giuliani and advised the presidential campaigns of John McCain and Jeb Bush. She is on the Biden Institute Policy Advisory Board.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOO
12-11-2018 , 04:36 PM
Latest Move On poll has Beto in second just behind "someone else"

Someone else/DK/other: 28.8 percent

Beto O’Rourke: 15.6 percent

Joe Biden: 14.9 percent

Bernie Sanders: 13.1 percent

Kamala Harris: 10 percent

Elizabeth Warren: 6.4 percent

Sherrod Brown: 2.9 percent

Amy Klobuchar: 2.8 percent

Michael Bloomberg: 2.7 percent

Cory Booker: 2.6 percent

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...w-poll-n946501
12-11-2018 , 04:50 PM
Here's where we stand on PredictIt:



Two big changes since before the midterms:
- Beto added and becomes the new leader.
- Warren loses more than half her value.

Neither of those are surprising to me. As I said when it happened, I think the Native American thing was a ginormous blunder for Warren and I don't think she can recover from it.

Personally, if I were going to place bets on these, I would put my money on Beto and Harris. I think they are bigger front-runners than this indicates.
12-11-2018 , 07:32 PM
Lol he ain't going left. Aoc 201whenever
12-12-2018 , 06:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I would definitely support getting rid of the filibuster. I would also support making the electoral college not winner-take-all, but proportioned within each state, as it is done in one or two states now. I'm not sure if either of these would require a constitutional amendment to implement.

If the democrats do gain power and somehow manage to make DC and/or Puerto Rico into a state, get ready for Texas to become 5 states the next time the Republicans are in power. I think that's a dangerous box to open.
The box is already wide open and the GOP are pissing into it. If they make texas into 5 states we make california into 7 states. Make new york's boroughs into states (except staten island that can be a territory). Make the whole thing look so ludicrous that the only option is to get rid of the 2 senator electoral college style system altogether and implement something far more sensible.
12-12-2018 , 06:34 AM
Texas was admitted to the union with the provision that it could later split into up to 5 states. Arguably it wouldn't even need to be approved by congress.
12-12-2018 , 07:10 AM
Also outside of the most extreme of extreme gerrymandering there isn't a way to split texas into anything other than at best 3-2 R to D. In fact breaking it up would probably increase the weight of the big cities within each "state" so you couldn't be certain it would tend up 3-2 in the Dems favour. You can get 7 D states out of California without breaking a sweat.
12-12-2018 , 11:50 AM
Yeah not too worried about a 5-state Texas, I'm plenty fine with going there if the Repubs want if we make DC and PR states. i think making Texas into 5 states would be a much bigger pain than just making DC and PR states as well
12-12-2018 , 12:42 PM
I like him but I don't see anyone getting excited about him as a candidate

12-12-2018 , 03:09 PM
Dude is going to empty platitude it up hardcore. Tries hard to be hispanic Obama. Think he has trouble sticking out among Harris, Beto, etc.
12-12-2018 , 04:50 PM
Will Bernie be able to lump Beto in with all the rest of them as just another corporate Democrat, such that even if their collective popularity is greater than him, he'll still be able to pull a Trump and win?

Will Bernie's attempts at building coalitions with the black community over the last 2 years work? According to centrist twitter it has definitely not made a dent.

Will somebody talk to Bernie about touching and interrupting AOC during the climate change panel? I hope so.
12-12-2018 , 05:42 PM
Really hoping Bernie decides not to run and rip the bandaid off 2016 wounds but I know it's coming
12-12-2018 , 10:41 PM
If Warren can't recover from the Native American blunder it is ENTIRELY the fault of corporate Democratic centrists and has absolutely nothing to do with the Republicans or anyone else not in the Democratic Party. And it's entirely because they don't want her to be POTUS and has nothing to do with their estimation of her chances vs. Trump.

If Beto isn't vilified, condescended to, and slandered by WaPo and the corporate Dem centrists that's absolute proof that he's one of them.
12-12-2018 , 10:52 PM
Not that impressed by Beto. Watched the first Cruz debate. Beto made no counter-arguments and only conveyed a surface-level understanding of the issues.
12-12-2018 , 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I would definitely support getting rid of the filibuster. I would also support making the electoral college not winner-take-all, but proportioned within each state, as it is done in one or two states now. I'm not sure if either of these would require a constitutional amendment to implement.

If the democrats do gain power and somehow manage to make DC and/or Puerto Rico into a state, get ready for Texas to become 5 states the next time the Republicans are in power. I think that's a dangerous box to open.
uhh, splitting texas into 5 states would be great for the dems ducy
12-12-2018 , 11:04 PM
Plz split the texas into 5 lol
12-12-2018 , 11:28 PM
What's the deal with Schiff? Why isn't his name ever bandied about?
12-12-2018 , 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominic
What's the deal with Schiff? Why isn't his name ever bandied about?
Pretty boring. Also Jewish, and Bernie didn't quite break that barrier.
12-12-2018 , 11:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominic
What's the deal with Schiff? Why isn't his name ever bandied about?
Good at the nitty-gritty legislation, but uninspiring. Doesn't pass the "beer test."
12-13-2018 , 11:45 AM
I'm told there's a perception among the general black community that Jews don't like them.
12-13-2018 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
I'm told there's a perception among the general black community that Jews don't like them.
Not really. There obviously used to be a very close connection and many/most of the "white" people you see marching with black people in the 60s were Jews, but the problems between the Chasidic Orthodox and Black people in NYC have done some damage.

I don't think that spills over widely to Jews who aren't in all the Orthodox garb. And, a lot of Christian Americans barely know what a Jew is. Really. I've been asked some pretty crazy questions about how I can be Jewish if I don't do this or that (including animal sacrifice) and people surprised that I'm Jewish because I dress normal.

Also (like most things) probably worse on the East Coast.

Last edited by microbet; 12-13-2018 at 12:17 PM.
12-13-2018 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
uhh, splitting texas into 5 states would be great for the dems ducy
Here's a nearly 10 year old analysis from 538 on the matter.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ng-with-texas/

Found that it would likely help R's in Senate and hurt in electoral college. Given the shift to D in the last 10 years in Texas (and likely continuing trend), I'd expect the same analysis to show that it would likely be neutral in the Senate (while obviously still pro-D in the electoral college).

Also likely helps D's in House, since at least 2 of new states will be D controlled and thus not gerrymandered in R favor.
12-13-2018 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamnotawerewolf
I'm told there's a perception among the general black community that Jews don't like them.
Told by whom? There is a high level of antisemitism in the black community. From the 2016 ADL survey:


      
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